Bolton: Lean on best ball-strikers at unfamiliar Black Desert venue

When facing an unknown test like Black Desert Resort, site of the inaugural Black Desert Championship, the narrative always has been to lean into ball-strikers.

At mild elevation in southern Utah – about 3,000 feet above sea level – additional calculations can be necessary to land closest to targets. But professionals practice hitting less than 100 percent regularly, all the while shaping the ball.

The mystery is baked into the learning curve of the putting surfaces. Like full shots on a range, it’s conceivable that greens could be replicated in a backyard, but just about all of them are not. So on-site intel and experience are required for the putter to catch up to the rest of the bag.

This approach was last plugged into the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club, which, coincidentally, was also at altitude (in Colorado), and it worked like a gem in identifying the winner.

Keegan Bradley, a long-hitting ball-striker, prevailed by one stroke over a trio of runners-up. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, ranked second in greens in regulation and co-led in ball-striking. It was a plug-and-perform expectation.

Also on cue, Bradley gave back 1.688 strokes to the field on the unfamiliar greens to rank 34th in SG: Putting (among 48 who completed 72 holes).

Although there are always examples of golfers who contend with terrific putting in a week when the tee-to-green game is the leading factor, the moral of the matter is that the greater margin of error belongs to ball-strikers. In Bradley’s case at Castle Pines, it was revealed in his margin of victory.

Power Rankings wild card

Chris Kirk (+138 = Top 20) … He’s tied for third-shortest in the markets, but the season-opening winner of The Sentry has connected for only two more top 10s since. Granted, and in line with the formula detailed at the top of this page, his profile as a ball-striker plays up in the unknown. It did at Castle Pines where he finished T9, but it’s tastier to invest multiple units for a Top 20 given his infrequent appearances near the tops of leaderboards.

Other notables

Matt McCarty (+400 = Top 10) … Now that he’s broken the seal on his PGA TOUR membership, the 2024 Korn Ferry Tour points leader can return to normal feels on a track that figures to reward him. He opened the Sanderson Farms Championship with a 6-under 66 but retreated all the way into a T63 at the finish line. In line with the inflated value of this week’s objective, he ranked highly in hitting fairways and greens, but he just didn’t pay off the chances. This endorsement is bold, but look out now because he was his circuit’s best putter. If you’re not interested, he’s +200 for a Top 20.

Harry Hall (+175 = Top 20) … The UNLV product is poised to generate an impressive handle when the PGA TOUR swings through Las Vegas next week, but he’s already attractive because of how he’s performed across the last three months. His run of seven starts worldwide includes his breakthrough title at the ISCO Championship and another three top 20s, the last of which was in his last start at the BMW PGA Championship in his native England. Respect the Top-20 market now and consider reaching for at least a top 10 at TPC Summerlin.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Parlay: Patton Kizzire, Justin Lower and Adam Svensson (+145 = All to Make the Cut)
• Wesley Bryan (+140 = Top 40)
• S.Y. Noh (+160 = Top Korean)
• David Skinns (+110 = Top 40)
• Kevin Tway (+150 = Top 40)
• Vince Whaley (+110 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

J.J. Spaun … Opened with 3-over 75 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and then withdrew. No explanation was given. It’s a curious turn of events after he saved his season with a flurry that extended into the second round of the Procore Championship. He’s 100th in the FedExCup, with the top 125 at season’s end retaining full status for 2025. That’s relevant because he doesn’t have to return until he’s ready. Our only “concern” is how much focus he can keep on the preparation as his beloved Los Angeles Dodgers grapple with the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series.

Taylor Montgomery … Withdrew during the second round of the Sanderson Farms Championship, but an explanation was not released. In a vacuum, his immediate return in Utah would serve as an audition for next week’s home game in Las Vegas, but he’s been trying to play with and through recovering from torn muscles in both shoulders, so a good experience now doesn’t necessarily keep the faith later. Be careful.

Chad Ramey … Opted not to tee off for his second round last week due to a sore wrist. As a product of Mississippi State University with a decent track record at The Country Club of Jackson and having cashed in five straight upon arrival, it was a disappointing outcome. At 111th in the FedExCup and only about 53 points inside the top-125 bubble, he probably needs to put more points on the board to stay safe.

Notable withdraws

Kevin Yu … Understandably taking a breather after his breakthrough victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Now 60th in the FedExCup, so just inside the bubble of the Aon Next 10, and now equipped with starts in the 2025 editions of The Sentry, THE PLAYERS Championship, the Masters and the PGA Championship.

Maverick McNealy … He was a late entry after missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms and then withdrew on Sunday after slipping only one spot to 55th in the FedExCup.

Emiliano Grillo … This is his first early exit since the fall of 2022. Finished T11 at The Country Club of Jackson and retained position at 67th in the FedExCup.

Parker Coody … Called it quits during his first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship with an injured wrist – it wasn’t detailed as to which one – so this is an untimely extension to his inability to play on. The rookie currently is 165th in the FedExCup.

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