Bolton: No inherent biases at The Country Club of Jackson for Sanderson Farms

When we consider the most equitable tournaments on the PGA TOUR schedule, two step forward immediately as perennial options – THE PLAYERS Championship contested at TPC Sawgrass and The Open Championship anywhere it’s played. There’s an argument that the Sanderson Farms Championship belongs in the discussion, perhaps atop the next tier.

The first two are standouts not only as premier competitions, but also as crapshoots. No matter their fields, neither caters to trends. While the Sanderson Farms' history and field construction don’t match the aforementioned duo, everything about its stage screams fair, consistent and as an opportunity for all. It’s the kind of identity that any setup on TOUR would love to proclaim.

This is the 11th Sanderson Farms at Country Club of Jackson. While a modest sample size, there hasn’t been a two-time champion, much less a repeat winner. Each of the first six editions yielded a first-time winner, but as the tournament has broken free from its former slot as an Additional Event and into a standalone competition, there wasn’t a breakthrough champion in any of the last four.

The course is a stock par 72 with enough length to provide elasticity in the daily setup, but there’s nothing outrageous about how fields have attacked it off the tee. It’s more of a second-shot track that requires an equal measure of putting. Yet, despite winning scores ranging from 16- to 22-under, it’d be irresponsible to classify it as a shootout. Quite simply, it just rewards good golf. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that but it doesn’t necessarily do us any favors.

The moral of the matter is that guys who are striking it well upon arrival still need to roll in putts, all the while others can find their game here because there are no inherent biases. So, take it easy on yourself if you’re high or low about anyone who captures your attention. It’s no different than those other two times of the year when the messaging is the same.

Weather

Docile conditions will envelop the field of 132 all day on Thursday. It’s a similar setup to what we witnessed for the opening round of the Procore Championship, so target the early wave if you’re keen on the R1 leader market. This was the advice in this space for Silverado. Lo and behold, David Lipsky’s 7-under 65 in the first threesome off the first hole held up as the low score among 144.

A mild threat of rain enters the picture in Mississippi on Friday, but don’t let it deter you from live betting as wind still isn’t expected to be a challenge.

Power Rankings wild card

Keith Mitchell (+260 = Miss the Cut) … This echoes the breakdown at the top. CC of Jackson is impartial, so it’s not surprising that he’s 0-for-4 with only one red number in eight rounds (second-round 71 in 2021). That he’s tied for shortest among the outrights (at +2200) speaks to his cachet, consecutive 12th-place finishes upon arrival and potential exposure, than it does his promise.

Other notables

Rickie Fowler (+115 = Top 40) … While this is an endorsement, that it’s not for something better speaks to limited confidence. He has seven top-40s this year and he’s obviously a notable in the field, so we still can appreciate the plus value. It’s also important to cite that, while he’s 110th in the FedExCup, he’s fully exempt through 2025 by virtue of his victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2023, so the only immediate pressure to perform is within the context of a personal crusade to be better than he was yesterday. Naturally, exemptions into the Signature Events and other big stops next year always are goals, but he’s in the position to take things slow for now.

Peter Malnati (+175 = Top 40) … He’s among the sextet of breakthrough winners at CC of Jackson (in 2015), but he also has a solo second (in 2020) contributing to an 8-for-9 on the course. As a result, he’s made more money on it than any other track in 275 PGA TOUR starts. The kickback for this finish is attractive because he’s gone nine consecutive starts without a top-55 finish, but he’s also just six months removed from victory at the Valspar Championship.

Chad Ramey (+140 = Top 40) … He’s a nice find in this market. The product of Mississippi State is making his fifth start at CC of Jackson. It’s where he collected his first PGA TOUR paycheck for a T26 in 2018. Last year’s T16 is his personal best of three cuts made. He arrives for this appearance with five in a row, two of which for a top 40. Amid season-long inconsistency is a nicely balanced profile highlighted by accuracy off the tee and dynamic putting.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Parlay: Rico Hoey, Charley Hoffman and Mac Meissner (+175 = All to Make the Cut)
• Tyler Duncan (+250 = Top 40)
• Cody Gribble (+400 = Top 40)
• Nick Hardy (+120 = Top 40)
• Rico Hoey (+275 = Top Asian)
• Kevin Streelman (+230 = Top 40)
• Jhonattan Vegas (+138 = Top South American)
• Vince Whaley (+140 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

C.T. Pan … If you’re a course-history buff, then he’s a prime example of why you’re glad that you’re reading this right now. Since 2020, he’s 4-for-4 at CC of Jackson with a T12, a T11 and a T9, the totality of which consisting of 11 sub-70s and one 70. However, ongoing concern for his back is reason enough to abstain from all bets that reward a favorable performance. The malady has forced him out mid-competition four times in the last 12 months, including during each of his last two.

Erik Barnes … Ejected after opening the Procore Championship with an 83. He said it best himself on Instagram a week prior: “After highest point in my career earlier in the year at the Puerto Rico Open (where he lost in a playoff), I tried to get better by making some swing changes. That was the single worst decision I’ve made in my career and it showed in my play.” He added a thought about confidence entering the FedExCup Fall, so don’t hesitate to hop on as soon as he hangs up a low one.

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