Prop Farm: Nick Dunlap is popular bet in search of third TOUR title this year

Don’t tell Las Vegas that the FedExCup Fall has resumed on the PGA TOUR, as the hottest summer ever on record continues in the desert. We’re still in the triple-digits out here, and I’m not talking about the price on a longshot to win this week in Mississippi. We could use some touches of fall out here in a hurry, but for now we’ll just have to try to stay cool with the seven events that remain in this abridged autumn golf season.

Speaking of Las Vegas, the FedExCup Fall will be in nearby Utah next week and then right here in Sin City the following week for the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin. FedExCup Fall events will now take place just about every week before concluding with the RSM Classic in late November.

This week it’s the Sanderson Farms Championship at The Country Club of Jackson, as the TOUR gets back underway after last week’s Presidents Cup in Montreal. This course has been hosting the event since 2014 and Luke List is your defending champion.

The highest-ranked player in the OWGR in the field this week is Nick Dunlap. He came across my radar early in the week this week as potentially a good play here. In recent editions of the Sanderson Farms Championship, we have seen the bombers prevail. Dunlap ranks 34th on TOUR in Driving Distance. He was also born and raised in nearby Alabama and played golf for the University of Alabama. Players with an affinity for this region and the Bermudagrass putting surfaces have done well here in the past, including LSU Tiger Sam Burns who won here in Jackson in 2021.

“Nick Dunlap is leading the way in ticket count and money wagered,” said long-time Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman.

I guess I wasn’t alone in my hunch about Dunlap being a good fit here this week. However, since getting a feeling for his overwhelming popularity, I’ve actually gone the other way and played against him in a full tournament head-to-head matchup being offered at BetMGM Sportsbook: Patrick Rodgers (-105) over Dunlap.

Sherman went on to point out where he has seen some respected money land in the outright market. “We’ve seen some sharp play on Patrick Fishburn to win it this week,” he said.

Noted Las Vegas bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich has seen some activity trickle in on a few players, including Dunlap.

“Michael Thorbjornsen, as usual, is drawing some action in the outright market – along with Dunlap and Davis Riley,” Bogdanovich said. “Ben Griffin and Dunlap for a top-10 finish are also getting action.”

Riley is a Mississippi native who, like Dunlap, is another former member of the golf team at Alabama.

From his post at The Borgata in New Jersey, Thomas Gable reported that he is seeing primarily recreational play this week for the Sanderson Farms. “It’s been mostly recreational money, but Griffin and Jhonattan Vegas are our biggest liabilities in the outright market,” Gable said. “Griffin did take some respected money, however, as a small underdog in his tournament matchup against Mackenzie Hughes. He was +115 and is now +105.“

Speaking of matchups, senior manager Tristan Davis at Mandalay Bay has taken notice of two in particular. “There have been a couple of sharp moves for matchups. Greyson Sigg to beat Kevin Yu, from +105 into -125 and Beau Hossler to beat Mac Meissner, from +100 into -110,” Davis said.

Personally, I am involved with just about everyone mentioned here this week. I have plays on Fishburn, Griffin, Vegas and Yu to win it outright this week – and also on the matchup noted earlier with Rodgers over Dunlap.

If it is going to still be a minute before the heat breaks here in Las Vegas, can the golf betting at least stay hot for a little while longer, too?

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