Five betting lessons from Presidents Cup

MONTREAL – Another Presidents Cup, another resounding U.S. Team win.

The dominance in the biennial competition against the International Team continued at Royal Montreal with an 18.5-11.5 hammering, the biggest margin of victory for an away team in the history of the Cup.

They now boast a 13-1-1 record overall since the Cup's inception in 1994 with the lone International win coming in 1998.

Starting as -270 betting favorites, Jim Furyk’s team started like a house on fire, running out to a 5-0 lead Thursday only to be stunned by a 5-0 response from Mike Weir’s team on Friday.

But a 6-2 Saturday turned the tide back before a stoic 7.5-4.5 Singles performance clinched the victory. They were +1200 to win by this exact margin.

As always, there is hindsight for both teams and bettors alike. So let’s take a look at some betting lessons we can take away from this Presidents Cup.

1. Bet on the U.S. Team

Thanks Captain Obvious…right? As morbid as it sounds for International Team fans, the reality is the U.S. is now 13-1-1 in this competition and as such anyone who had bet the U.S pre-tournament, even at -270 odds, is better off now. They racked up 18.5 of the 30 points this time around and there were no ties until Sunday, so chances are you could have just bet them in every match and come out on top.

If you are looking for the opposite, take heed of Ernie Els’ words. He’s the former Captain, now Captain’s Assistant, who bound the Internationals under their shield. He pointed out the lopsided world ranking of the U.S. squad (all players inside the top 25 in the world) but felt change can come.

“We're in the process. These guys may not rank very high in World Ranking, but they're coming. There's a lot of good, great talent here, so we've got to give this a little bit of time,” Els said.

“When they start winning tournaments on the PGA TOUR, their real confidence is going to come through. It was a different animal back in the day, but this thing's coming, I promise you.”

Until they actually do… bet the Americans.

2. Several players may be headed to PGA TOUR winner’s circle soon

When you’re perusing the betting boards for the remainder of the FedEx Fall series and the first few months of the 2025 PGA TOUR season keep the 24 players from the Cup prominent in your thoughts. After the 2019 Presidents Cup six players from the Cup, including the likes of Adam Scott and Sungjae Im, won inside the first two months of the season. Post 2022 it was Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa doing the same.

“I've seen it many times, going back even to '03 for me with that experience, but I see it with a lot of guys,” veteran Scott said. “They use this experience of these tight matches, coming up the 18th, the pressure of playing, last match on the course, all the teams are watching, all the focus is on you, and the next time you put yourself in that position in a big event, you can lean on this experience.

“So I've seen it many times. I even think of Scottie Scheffler at Whistling Straits to then where he is now. These can do a lot for your confidence and give you a lot of experience. I hope these guys are inspired off the back of this and push to make the next team and rack up victories along the way.”

For the record, Scheffler agreed.

“There's definitely an aspect to that," he said. "I think looking back at that Ryder Cup, one of the coolest things was just getting the vote of the guys to want me to be a part of that team. That really meant a lot to me.”

3. Don’t bank on host country heroes

There is always a push to include International players from the host country but it doesn’t always translate into points on the board. By no means are we suggesting Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes or Taylor Pendrith should have missed the team at Royal Montreal but the fact is the three Canadians combined for a 5-8-0 record, not as beefy as captain Weir would have hoped.

They are not alone as Australians in 2019 and 2011 from events at Royal Melbourne were 4-5-4 and 7-14-3 respectively while Sang Moon Bae, as the lone Korean in 2015 had a 2-1-1 record but his loss was a big one, chunking a chip on the 18th hole to help the U.S. clinch a one-point win.

The lesson is, don’t put too much stock in home guys… perhaps the pressure gets to them a little.

4. Don’t bank on a big comeback

When you see Scottie Scheffler hit +600 in a match like he and Henley did on Saturday the temptation can certainly be there to jump on, especially as it cashed against Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im. That duo was three down through six holes before turning things around to win, 3 and 2. We saw another comeback from two down in Sunday Singles, with Corey Conners two down through four and +475 before blitzing Tony Finau, 5 and 3.

But as awesome as those were, if we look across the board, we see that 26 matches of 30 saw one side take a two-hole lead. Only three times, the two above and a Morikawa/Burns Foursomes turnaround, managed to return a comeback to record victories.

So while riding the rollercoaster of a one-hole lead or deficit can be wise, doing the same once the advantage doubles can be a fool’s errand more often than not.

5. This U.S. Team is ruthless and won’t settle for back-door covers

At the start of the week, the handicap market for the Presidents Cup was -3.5 points for the U.S. Team. There was a train of thought, one that I myself advocated heading into Sunday Singles, that once the Cup was clinched the U.S. players might take the foot off the gas and allow for a backdoor cover. I went as far as expecting the Internationals to win the Singles session because of it.

But turns out this team is ruthless. After being humbled on Friday they returned steeled to not only win, but to leave no doubt. Word is they were chasing the record of reaching 20 points and it meant the likes of Wyndham Clark and Sahith Theegala refused to yield and fought to the death for half points.