Benny and the Bets: Five betting storylines to watch in FedExCup Fall

The TOUR Championship has been run and won, but the high quality golf – and betting opportunities – haven’t dried up as we head deeper into the FedExCup Fall.

Last week’s Procore Championship kicked things off, and we’ve already seen the resurgence of a former TOUR winner in Patton Kizzire, something to hold in our back pocket moving forward.

But what else should we have our eyes on? What does the FedExCup Fall bring to the eye of the veteran sports bettor? Here are five things to look for as the weather starts to cool.

The fight for Signature Event status, TOUR cards

As players battle through this portion of the season – an eight-tournament stretch to save their jobs or earn access to early-season Signature Events in 2025 – bettors often see opportunities to tie wagers to players’ form and psyche.

While the top 50 in the FedExCup have all earned spots in the 2025 Signature Events, the Aon Next 10 is a carrot for Nos. 51 and below playing in the Fall. Nos. 51-60 on the list after The RSM Classic will earn exemptions into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational.

From there, players can leverage themselves into a hot season. Just ask Ludvig Åberg, who turned a win last fall into a spot in the Signature Events all season long. He started the FedExCup Fall around the top-125 bubble and ended the season as one of the TOUR’s new stars.

That 125 mark is also in play for players looking to maintain status on the TOUR for other events all season long. What does that mean for the betting public?

Well, perhaps you can start using the points projections around players to find spots to wager in the place markets particularly. Let’s take the top three at the Procore last week: Kizzire, David Lipsky and Patrick Fishburn. Kizzire and Lipsky moved from outside the top 125 to inside, while Fishburn was inside the bubble but not certain to move on.

All three now look pretty good to return in 2025. When assessing the field in upcoming events, make sure to check the bubbles.

Keep an eye on potential rising stars

This leg of the season also becomes imperative in scouting for the new year, especially fresh faces. A year ago, we saw Sahith Theegala win but were also treated to the breakout of Åberg. Want to know who the next line of potential stars, or value wagers in place markets at big events might be? Keep an eye on the fall.

Michael Thorbjornsen is this year’s top PGA TOUR University player to join the TOUR, and he opened the fall with a respectable T50 finish at the Procore Championship last week.

But how can we not be watching amateur Luke Clanton closely? He’s made six of seven cuts on the TOUR already in 2024, including a runner-up at the John Deere Classic and a fifth at the Wyndham Championship. Don’t be surprised to see him win something soon.

Big names chasing trophies

The FedExCup Fall doesn’t preclude those inside the top 50 in points from teeing it up at events they like, or even tournaments they’ve already won.

With the benefit of not “needing” to win sometimes comes the freedom to chase a win unencumbered.

Expect to see Collin Morikawa and other stars at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan again, and while he’s just outside the top 50, you can be sure Tom Kim is heading for the three-peat at the Shriners Children’s Open in Las Vegas. I’ll be shocked if Patrick Cantlay isn’t there again also.

With the new Black Desert Championship in Utah, I’d expect Tony Finau to suit up. Then there is Åberg at The RSM Classic, assuming he comes back from his knee surgery in time. (That in itself is another storyline to monitor.) We’ve already heard Jordan Spieth is targeting a 2025 return after wrist surgery, but Åberg was hopeful of an earlier start and title defense.

Comeback players fight for standing once again

No one is immune to a bad season or two, with TOUR fields littered with former winners who have since gone on somewhat of a decline. The FedExCup Fall is where a lot of these players can make their way back to prominence.

Kizzire has already stepped up as the first, claiming his third TOUR win at Procore, but first since 2018. There are others chasing the 51-60 slot, like Justin Rose (currently 55th) and proven winners like Matt Kuchar also looking to prove they’re far from a spent force.

Rickie Fowler currently sits 110th on the list. How often will we see him chase past glories this fall, and do we trust him to pop on a leaderboard? Fowler remains fully exempt for 2025 off his 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic victory. Daniel Berger is still fighting back from long-term injuries – it wasn’t that long ago he would have been a lock for the Presidents Cup U.S. Team.

For former major winners like Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland, is the magic still inside waiting to come out? When you see these players at high odds, does it become a viable option for big return off a small investment?

Presidents Cup

This is technically not part of the FedExCup Fall, but the biennial competition between the U.S. Team and the International Team not only brings a plethora of wagering options, but also is a great insight into potential form for 2025.

There is no doubt the U.S. Team, which has only lost the Cup once (1998), deserves to be the -350 favorite to retain the title, but with other markets like Top Points Scorer, Exact Score and, of course, lines on each head-to-head match, the competition from Sept. 26-29 from Royal Montreal is intriguing.

A year ago, Justin Thomas was somewhat of a surprise – an out-of-form selection for the U.S. Ryder Cup team. Yet he was able to leverage confidence from being picked into a better 2024. Will Max Homa have a similar resurgence in 2025?

Track the International Team’s best performers, because confidence on this stage can lead to bigger things off it. After the 2019 Presidents Cup, International Team members won four TOUR events in the opening two months of 2020.

After the 2022 event, Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim also won TOUR events soon after.

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