Prop Farm: Could another first-time winner be crowned in Napa?

The first of eight FedExCup Fall events kicks off this week in beautiful Napa, California. It is the Procore Championship at Silverado Resort & Spa and Sahith Theegala is back to defend his title, earning his first-ever PGA TOUR victory here last year.

At the end of this month, the Presidents Cup will take place in Montreal, Canada. Most of the star power in this week’s field will be competing in that event. Theegala will be there, representing the United States, as will two-time Procore champion Max Homa, along with Wyndham Clark. Representing the International side, Mackenzie Hughes, Min Woo Lee and Corey Conners are all here in Napa this week as these players look to keep their games sharp for what lies ahead.

While Clark has the second-highest ticket count percentage at 8.4% to win it this week, only one of these players is seeing a great deal of attention at BetMGM Sportsbooks – and that is the defending champion.

“Sahith Theegala is our leader in ticket count percentage at 9.2%,” said BetMGM Senior Data Analyst Drew O’Dell. “He is second in highest handle at 12.2% and is our third largest liability.”

Oddsmaker Jeff Sherman is seeing more of the same in Las Vegas. “So far, there has been public support at the top of the board,” said Sherman. “Clark and Theegala are leading the way in ticket count and money wagered.”

From The Borgata in New Jersey, similar sentiments came from Director of Race and Sports, Thomas Gable. “Clark has been the most heavily bet at +1100,” Gable said. “Theegala at +1000, Homa at +1800, and Harris English at +3500 all have some liability but nothing big."

One player I landed on this week for an outright win and also a top-20 finish is J.J. Spaun. He’s a California kid who went to San Diego State and is familiar with this course and the blended Poa Annua/Bentgrass greens. He’s finished as high as ninth and 11th here in the past and has two top-10 finishes in his last two starts on TOUR.

“We moved Spaun’s outright odds down from +4000 to +3000 at BetMGM,” said O’Dell.

“He is our third highest in ticket count at 6.5%, tops in handle at 13.4%, and is our largest liability.”

I did correctly land on Theegala here at Silverado last year. Spaun has one TOUR win to his credit already, but the other four players I played this week are all, like Theegala last season, seeking their first TOUR crown.

Maverick McNealy. Another California native who finished runner-up here in Napa in 2021 and at nearby Pebble Beach in that same year. I took a shot with Eric Cole who was fourth here last year, and also has faired well at Pebble, finishing 14th and 15th the last two seasons. I played Chan Kim, who is a PGA TOUR rookie. Having won eight times on the Japan Tour and twice last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, Kim is off to a great start in 2024. He’s finished inside the top 12 three times in his last five starts. Finally, I took a stab with another longer shot and another TOUR rookie, Jacob Bridgeman.

Sherman let me know that my action on Cole is nothing out of the ordinary. “Eric Cole has been receiving his usual weekly support at +4000.”

Maybe this week it cashes as his first-ever TOUR victory? He’s been close many times. In not even two full years on TOUR, Cole has finished in the top five six times, including twice runner-up and twice finishing third.

Good luck with your plays this week in wine country!

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