Benny and the Bets: Home game not enough to bet on Max Homa

A year is a long time in golf. Just ask Max Homa.

As we gear up for the start of the FedExCup Fall, where access to Signature Events and even jobs for next season are on the line, it is actually this player who is exempt from those concerns who catches my eye the most at the Procore Championship.

Homa is a two-time winner at Silverado Resort and wasn’t far off making it three in a row before Sahith Theegala came through for his first TOUR win a year ago.

The California native leveraged that T7 result into a decent start in 2024 with top-20s at The Sentry, Farmers Insurance Open, The Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard before a breakout performance at the Masters.

Having just one major top-10 prior, Homa was in the thick of the chase for a green jacket before ultimately settling for a T3 finish behind Scottie Scheffler. Things appeared to be on the way up; you would have never bet on a T8 at the Truist Championship being his last decent result for the season.

But alas, it was. In nine starts to close the year, Homa failed to get inside the top 20 again or make it to the TOUR Championship after bombing in the opening two FedExCup Playoffs.

A year ago, he was the +750 favorite leading into this event, and rightfully so. We were debating whether or not Justin Thomas deserved his spot as the second favorite after a terrible year of his own.

Now he’s out to +2000, which might seem attractive, but are we about to be sucked into a sucker bet based on the past instead of the present?

Should we be contemplating jumping on Homa at these odds when the form – quite frankly – doesn’t warrant it?

It is a common quandary we must face in golf betting. There are many top-level proven winners on the PGA TOUR who, despite possible form slumps they suffer, remain higher on the odds boards than perhaps they should be. When it comes to handicapping, reputation counts. Talent, however, hidden it might be leading in, counts.

Homa hasn’t been talking much about his struggles, but he will face the media in Napa on Wednesday. He may well be asked about the metrics we can see … a big fall from grace across the major metrics of the sport.

I am confident Homa will find his form again at some point, much like Thomas has started to over the last 12 months or so. But I am not prepared to say it happens at his happy hunting ground this week.

Here are the statistical facts you should know before making a call on him. Simply compare his 2023 stats against 2024. In most major categories he has gone backward with only moderate gains in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Sand Saves. Those gains have come because he’s missed more greens and found more bunkers!

Of enormous concern this week are his SG: Tee-to-Green numbers. Winners at Silverado, including the man himself, have fared well off the tee. And then by association of finding fairways, into the greens. Homa has gone from gaining over a shot a round to losing strokes.

These are huge dips – and right now he seems lost. So we go back to that +2000 price.

On the other side of the coin, Homa has won twice and finished T7 in his last three starts here. He’s clearly at home on California courses also winning at Torrey Pines and The Riviera Country Club. His talent is locked in there somewhere. He’s also famously overcome a huge slump before to become the great player he is.

But I did a quick Golfbet survey on what price they would buy in on Homa this week and got answers ranging from +4000 all the way out to +15000! Personally, I’d be around the +4000-+6000 range.

If Homa does use his happy home state hunting ground to turn things around I’ll certainly be happy for him… I just won’t have advocated people putting their hard-earned on it.

Where should you put it instead? I like the defending champ, who was awesome at East Lake recently, and I’ve also got an interest in the hot-hand youngster, Luke Clanton. There is value in the Top 10 market for veteran Matt Kuchar and Mark Hubbard, who has shown glimpses of his best in the fall before and who is in good spirits following his Monday qualifying mishap!

BENNY’S BETTING CARD

• Outrights: Sahith Theegala +1100, Luke Clanton +2500
• Top 10: Matt Kuchar +450, Mark Hubbard +450
• Head-to-Head: Patrick Fishburn (-110) over C.T. Pan

September is Responsible Gaming Education Month. For more information on how to put together your sports betting game plan, visit haveagameplan.org/pgatour.