Prop Farm: Matchups are money makers at TOUR Championship

The crowning of the FedExCup champion comes from the final 30 players as the Playoffs conclude with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, but with the FedExCup Starting Strokes format and the reduced number of players, bookmakers are seeing a mix of behaviors from the bettors this week.

“We’re seeing action on the head-to-head matchups but the outrights have been relatively light so far,” said renowned Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman.

“With this format, it’s akin to betting in-game or updated odds. One sharp matchup play has been Sahith Theegala as a small underdog to beat Shane Lowry.”

Despite the light activity in the outright market, Sherman did note: “We’re getting support for (Ludvig) Åberg and some triple-digit guys but it’s all recreational play.”

It was a similar story for one of the newest members of the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame in Las Vegas, Nick Bogdanovich.

“The staggered start is not bettor friendly,” he said. “You factor in the top two players have separated themselves from the pack and have a head start to boot.”

But again, the matchups are a different story.

“Matchups are getting some interest," he said. "They’re betting Robert MacIntyre over Byeong Hun An, Viktor Hovland over Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im over Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood over Russell Henley.”

Conversely, at Mandalay Bay, Senior Manager Tristan Davis hasn’t seen much drop off this week. “I’d say it’s been normal,” said Davis. “We’re still expecting loads of action despite football season starting. This is golf’s superbowl too.”

It’s all recreational play, but in the outright market, Davis says bettors are targeting one man in particular.

“Punters have decided Xander Schauffele wins the TOUR Championship," Davis said. "He's been the best bet player this week. Punters are staying away from Scottie Scheffler.”

Davis noted some longer shots getting support and the continued swerve away from Scheffler.

“We have also seen support for the double-digit runners," Davis said. "Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy and Åberg – so punters are betting around the No. 1.”

It is a very interesting split at BetMGM, where data analyst Drew O’Dell gives us a look at some of the numbers.

“Scheffler has the highest ticket count at 12.2%, followed by Schauffele at 11.3%, and McIlroy at 11.1%,” O'Dell revealed.

But it flips when we’re talking about the money wagered.

“Schauffele is responsible for the highest handle at 32.5%,” said O’Dell. “Scheffler accounts for 26.0% of the handle and 9% for McIlroy.”

And then there is the liability. “Rory McIlroy is our biggest liability, followed by Ludvig Åberg, and then Schauffele," he added

It makes some sense with Schauffele and Scheffler being listed at such short prices and both McIlroy and Åberg being at double-digit odds.

Director of Race and Sports at The Borgata in New Jersey, Thomas Gable chimed in: “I’m a little surprised McIlroy is taking as much money as he is at +1800," he said.

Personally, I jumped in on Schauffele (+225) to win it this week, too. Yes, the golf course has received a noteworthy restoration, but I’m not sure it will suddenly make Schauffele no longer a horse for this course. Nobody in the world has been better from a Strokes Gained perspective at East Lake than Schauffele. He’s had the low 72-hole score here in 2017, 2020 and 2023. He’s never finished worse than seventh in seven trips and he begins only two shots behind Scheffler.

There are betting markets without the Starting Strokes as well, and I do have some players I believe make sense here. Matsuyama (+1600) is intriguing despite not having a sparkling history here at East Lake Golf Club and the questions about last week’s withdrawal. Matsuyama did win two weeks ago on the same combination of Zoysia grass fairways and Bermudagrass greens.

I expect good weeks out of two former FedExCup champions in Hovland (+1600) and Billy Horschel (+3300). And finally, if I were to take a flyer on a couple of long shots this week – again, in the low 72-hole score market – I believe Aaron Rai (+4500) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5500) could make some noise.

I found it interesting what O’Dell had to say about the markets sans the Starting Strokes: “We're seeing about three times more action on the bonus strokes applied market vs the straight-up winner without strokes," he said.

Finally, we were able to dig up some respected money that Davis has seen come over the counter at Mandalay Bay. “For head-to-head matchups with strokes applied, we’ve seen sharp action on Patrick Cantlay to beat Keegan Bradley, going from -110 to -120, along with Sam Burns to beat Bradley, from +120 to +110,” said Davis. “Also, Sungjae Im to beat Adam Scott, from -130 to -145.”

Generally speaking, sharp golf bettors gravitate toward head-to-head matchups more so than they do the outright markets, no matter what week it is or what format the golfers are playing. It looks like that remains true this week in Atlanta. I’ve always said, the outrights are where the glory is, but the matchups are where the money is made.