Benny and the Bets: Why betting on Scottie Scheffler wasn't best for returns this year

Scottie Scheffler backers can’t help but be pleased with his six-win season, but the Texan’s dominance on the betting boards surprisingly didn’t make him the most lucrative investment on TOUR – in fact, he was barely in the top 10 this season.

Despite winning six of his 18 starts for a win percentage of 33.3% leading into the TOUR Championship, where he starts at 10-under and a prohibitive +120 favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook to win the FedExCup, Scheffler would have won hardcore betting fans just $1,625 had they bet $100 on his price at the start of each tournament week.

That was only good for the 10th-best return on investment among the 30 players that qualified this week at East Lake.

For his 18 starts, and in this scenario a $1,800 outlay, Scheffler cashed tickets at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (+700), THE PLAYERS (+550), Masters (+400), RBC Heritage (+400), the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (+375) and the Travelers Championship (+400) to get $3,425 back, or a profit of $1,625.

Scheffler also won the Olympic Golf competition starting at +400 for those who went outside the official PGA TOUR season.

He won twice in 2023 but only netted $700. The bottom line: Scheffler has been profitable, and profit is never something to sneeze at, but it is nowhere near the mark you would love to see as a regular bettor.

A whopping 16 of the 30 players at East Lake did not win this season and therefore would have represented losses from between - Viktor Hovland ($1,500) out to Tom Hoge (-$2,500). This includes young gun Ludvig Åberg (-$1,800), former FedExCup champ Patrick Cantlay (-$1,800), as well as recent major winners Justin Thomas (-$1,800) and Collin Morikawa (-$2,000).

That leaves 13 other TOUR winners this season in the field, nine of whom would have netted fans more than the dominant Scheffler. And before you think of the two-time major winner and +280 second favorite at East Lake, Xander Schauffele… think again.

Schauffele may have won the PGA Championship and The Open Championship in his 20 starts, but this only returned an $800 profit had you bet $100 on him each week. This profit would, however, have lifted significantly if you bet him in the months prior, as major markets come out a year in advance.

Instead, you had to pick the longshots at the right time had you wanted to really clean up in 2024.

Frenchman Matthieu Pavon surprised most of us when he claimed the Farmers Insurance Open early in the season at +15000 and even with shelling out $1,800 across his 18 starts, you would stand $13,300 ahead for your troubles.

Second on the list was another early-season winner. In fact, the earliest season winner in Chris Kirk. His win at The Sentry in Maui at +12500 would have ensured those who bet him all year pulled in $10,600 profit.

Canadian Taylor Pendrith sits third, bringing in $7,800 of profit for his loyal betting fans around his triumph at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson before we get to our most lucrative multiple winner.

Japanese star Hideki Matsuyama, who still has enticing +1100 odds this week while starting at 7-under, would have his fans $6,400 ahead after wins at The Genesis Invitational and FedEx St. Jude Championship. That information might soften the blow for those on him when he withdrew last week despite sitting second after the opening round at the BMW Championship with a back injury.

Storming into fifth on this list is last week’s BMW Champion Keegan Bradley, who returned a profit for bettors of $6,000. Interestingly he raked in $8,200 last season so that’s $14,200 over the last two seasons for the newly appointed Ryder Cup Captain!

Scotsman Robert MacIntyre won at the RBC Canadian Open and the Genesis Scottish Open to bring his fans $5,700 from his 24 starts while Wyndham Clark’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am win was enough to supply $4,800 profit.

If you add the $13,400 profit from last season for Clark, you’d be in very nice shape indeed. No doubt, the Coloradan has had some very happy friends over the last two seasons.

Young gun Akshay Bhatia, who went within a three-putt of winning twice, still returned $3,100 on investment in his machine-like 25 starts while Aaron Rai’s Wyndham Championship win ensured $1,700 return for those who backed him each week.

Three-time FedExCup champion Rory McIlroy also won twice – at the Zurich Classic and the Wells Fargo Championship – but represents a mere $50 profit. But it is better than his Zurich partner Shane Lowry who shared that win, but still would be a net -$1050 for bettors who backed the Irishman every week.

The last of the winners in the field – former FedExCup winner Billy Horschel – would have netted out -$100 despite winning the Corales Puntacana Championship in April.

Outside of the top 30 at East Lake, I’ll give a shout-out to Nick Dunlap, whose two wins in 22 starts would have returned an incredible $42,500 for his regular bettors. A +40000 his at the American Express and a +4500 Barracuda Championship made for an insane rookie season.

Here’s a look at how the best of 2024 shook out by profit and loss. Who will be next season’s big money maker?

Benny's betting card

For what it’s worth I’m advocating Schauffele in both the overall FedExCup (+225) and gross 72-hole markets (+450) this week to finish off the season. Despite the restoration of East Lake, I cannot look past his history of a win and six further top-seven finishes at the venue. Add his career-best form and I can’t jump off him.

A conservative play on Rory McIlroy (+140) for a Top 5 is also an option given he’s the only player to prove capable of chasing down those near the top of the leaderboard, having done so twice.

And the lock of the week? Adam Scott, Top Aussie.

September is Responsible Gaming Education Month. For more information on how to put together your sports betting game plan, visit haveagameplan.org/pgatour.