Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler favored in TOUR Championship net, gross markets

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+110) is the headliner as the top choice at the BetMGM Sportsbook to win the FedExCup and perhaps interestingly, also the favorite for the lowest 72-hole gross total (+400) at the TOUR Championship this week.

Beginning at East Lake as the No. 1 player in FedExCup Starting Strokes for the third consecutive season (10-under), the Texan is still looking for his first FedExCup Playoffs title. Last week, the 2024 Masters, THE PLAYERS and Olympic champion did not break 71 in four rounds at Castle Pines (T33). Finishing one shot out of a playoff in 2022, Scheffler has cashed T6 or better in three of four starts on the Donald Ross design outside Atlanta and is hoping the recent restoration by Andrew Green will better suit his game.

As the No. 2 player in the FedExCup Playoffs standings, Xander Schauffele (+250) begins the TOUR Championship two shots back of Scheffler at 8-under. The Californian has closed the gap at the top of the gross odds board and sits +500 entering the week in this market.

The 2017 winner as a rookie on debut, Schauffele has feasted at East Lake with three T2 or better since FedExCup Starting Strokes was introduced in 2019. In seven visits, the two-time major champion has never cashed outside T7 and has hit the podium in the gross six times. After cashing T2 in Memphis and T5 last week at Castle Pines, his current form matches his East Lake history.

Ranking No. 3 in the standings, Hideki Matsuyama (+1000) will begin on 7-under, three shots back of Scheffler and one back of Schauffele. Last week, the FedEx St. Jude Champion was forced to withdraw during the BMW Championship after the first round with a lower back issue. The two-time winner in 2024 had avoided the injury bug for most of the season before last week. The co-fourth choice in the gross division (+1600), the Japanese star returns to East Lake after missing out last year and will be looking to hit the top 10 for the first time since T9 in 2019.

Ludvig Åberg (+1800) racked up another runner-up outside Denver to move up to the fifth spot at 5-under in FedExCup Starting Strokes. Making his TOUR Championship debut like eight others in the field, he joins Matsuyama as one of three players at +1600 in the gross division. The last player to win on debut was Schauffele in 2017, and the last player to hit the podium was Wyndham Clark (+4000; +2500) in 2023.

Rory McIlroy (+1800) is the only player to win the FedExCup Playoffs in each format and is the only three-time winner in history. Victorious twice under the FedExCup Starting Strokes format, the Ulsterman (+1200) is the third choice this week for gross total. Coming from behind does not bother the four-time major champion. His titles in the new format began with him starting on 5-under (2019) and 4-under (2022), respectively. After T68 in Memphis and T11 in Denver, he’s only six back of Scheffler’s lead. In 2022, McIlroy was six back of Scheffler after 54 holes before executing the largest come-from-behind victory in the TOUR Championship to win for the third time.

Like McIlroy, Collin Morikawa (+2500) begins the week six shots adrift in FedExCup Starting Strokes but is one of three players sitting at co-fourth choice (+1600) in the gross category. Opening 61-64 in 2023 the two-time major champion faded on the weekend and finished in a share of sixth place. With the fairways increasing in size after the restoration, the extra space off the tee will not thrill one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR. Keeping it out of the uneven Bermuda rough is a key this week, and not many do it better off the tee box.

Beginning the week eight shots behind Scheffler, defending champion Viktor Hovland (+6600) will need another record-setting performance to defend his 2023 title. Posting 27-under last year, the Norwegian shared low gross honors on 19-under with Schauffele, each beating the record of 17-under, set by McIlroy, by two shots. He started 8-under with FedExCup Starting Strokes and won by five shots, another record. Signing for T26 at the BMW Championship last week was another chapter in an uneven season for the reigning FedExCup winner, who sits at +1800 for the gross total this week.

Keegan Bradley (+2800; +4000) entered the BMW Championship in the 50th and final position and finished the week holding the trophy for the second time at this event and the seventh time in his career. The 2025 U.S. Ryder Cup captain could play himself on to the 2024 U.S. Presidents Cup Team next month in Montreal. Opening with 63 last year, he pocketed T9 money, his first top 10 in five tries.

While certain players are too far behind to warrant decent odds in the FedExCup market, some are noticeably better odds in the gross.

Tommy Fleetwood starts nine shots back in the net and as such is +12500 but sits just +2000 in the gross after a top five result at the BMW Championship last week.

Billy Horschel also starts at 1-under and as such the 2014 FedExCup champion is a distant +25000 to win it all. But his three previous top sevens at East Lake have him +3300 in the gross.

And then there is former FedExCup champion Justin Thomas. The last man in the 30-man field, Thomas has 10 strokes to make up with what has been a balky putter of late, seeing him at +25000. But his seven top sevens from seven starts at the event see his gross odds slashed to +2800.

Patrick Cantlay (2021 FedExCup champion) and Sam Burns sit +2000 in the gross market, while +3300 for the FedExCup as they will start six shots off the pace.

Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the field via BetMGM (FedExCup Starting Strokes, gross):

• Adam Scott (+6600; +2500)
• Sungjae Im (+6600; +2500)
• Tony Finau (+6600; +2800)
• Russell Henley (+8000; +2800)
• Shane Lowry (+10000; +4000)
• Sahith Theegala (+12500; +6600)
• Akshay Bhatia (+20000; +5500)
• Byeong Hun An (+20000; +5500)
• Robert MacIntyre (+25000; +8000)
• Sepp Straka (+30000; +4000)
• Aaron Rai (+35000; +4000)
• Taylor Pendrith (+35000; +5500)
• Chris Kirk (+50000; +6600)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+50000; +5500)
• Tom Hoge (+50000; +6000)
• Matthieu Pavon (+75000; +20000)

How the TOUR Championship works:

• A field of 30 players
• The Official World Golf Rankings are represented by nine of the top 10 and 29 of the top 50 players.
• 72 holes, stroke play, and no cut after 36 holes
• The player with the lowest NET total wins the $25 million bonus, the Calamity Jane putter, and the FedExCup Playoffs trophy. The players will receive bonus money based on leaderboard position.
• The player with the lowest GROSS total receives full winning OWGR points.

-Odds courtesy of BETMGM-

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