Prop Farm: Xander Schauffele collecting sharp money for BMW Championship

This is going to be fun. I remember loving The International, a PGA TOUR event held at Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado, beginning back in 1986. At roughly 6,200 feet above sea level, it was exciting to see these players launch the golf ball much further than we were used to. Gorgeous mountain golf, streams and pine trees was not something we witnessed on a regular basis either.

Now we are back, for the BMW Championship and the second of three FedExCup Playoffs events, where the top 50 players in the points standings are present. Like last week, this will be a no-cut event. At the conclusion of the championship, the top 30 players in FedExCup points will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the season finale.

Just 17 miles away from Castle Pines is Cherry Hills, where the BMW Championship was held in 2014. Billy Horschel was your champion that year and went on to win the FedExCup. This is our first time back in the Rocky Mountains since, and at over 8,100 yards, this will be the longest course to ever host a PGA TOUR event.

Off a final round 63 last week at TPC Southwind that nearly forced a playoff, Xander Schauffele is getting the attention of bettors this week as golf’s postseason resumes out west.

“Xander is the main man this week,” said Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook. “Best final round last week usually gets the attention of the punters, and being Xander Schauffele, all the more reason to tune in.

“Another player who came close last week was Viktor Hovland. He has been our second-best bet player at +1800. He seems to like this part of the season.”

Hovland won last year’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields and went on to win the FedExCup as well.

Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in New Jersey, is seeing similar movement at his shop.

“Right now, we have liability on Hovland at +1800 and Tommy Fleetwood at +2500. Hovland has actually attracted the most handle of anyone in the field,” said Gable. “Hovland is also attracting recreational money in his tournament matchups against Morikawa (Hovland +105 vs. Morikawa -125) and against Matsuyama (-115 vs. -105 Hovland).”

Getting down to the raw numbers, Drew O'Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM tells me that Schauffele and Hovland round out the top three.

“Schauffele is responsible for our second largest ticket count percentage (10.9%), second largest handle percentage (15.5%), and is our second biggest liability,” he said. “Viktor Hovland is right behind Xander in every category.”

Guess who's No. 1? That man, Scottie Scheffler.

“Familiar scene with Scheffler again at +350 pre-tournament in the outright winner market. He’s attracting his typical number of wagers but nothing significant money-wise,” said Gable.

Local Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman is seeing it, too. “There is public support for Scheffler, Tony Finau, and Wyndham Clark,” Sherman said. “No sharp play to report however, in the outright pool.”

O’Dell gave me the specifics from BetMGM. “Scheffler leads in ticket count percentage at 23.8% and in handle at 28.8%," he said.

The Sports Betting Hall of Famer Nick Bogdanovich has seen three different players garner noteworthy action to win it this week in the high country: “Finau, Ludvig Åberg and Matt Fitzpatrick are getting hit hard in the futures," he said.

Bogdanovich went on to point out some heavy action he is seeing in a finish position market.

“Nick Dunlap’s top-20 prop has been our most popular prop," he added. "Really good two-way action on YES/NO.”

I am only seeing one name pop up that I played this week for an outright win and that is Åberg. He is third on TOUR in Total Driving, and I like that as a point of emphasis on this golf course this week. Right above Åberg in Total Driving is Rory McIlroy, and I played him to bounce back this week as well after finishing next to last, last week in Memphis.

I also played two players who have had a great deal of success on Jack Nicklaus designs over the years, that being the aforementioned Horschel, who won at elevation in 2014, and Justin Thomas.

We noted earlier the large amount of support for Schauffele this week, primarily from recreational players in the outright market. But the sharps are on the X-man in head-to-head matchups.

"We have seen respected money come in on Xander Schauffele at +140 over Scottie Scheffler (-165),” said Gable from his post in New Jersey. Back here in Las Vegas, Davis at Mandalay Bay has seen a few others – also coming from respected money.

“Tony Finau to beat Sam Burns," he said. "We opened -110 apiece, and very quickly it was bet down to -125, and also Finau to beat Sungjae Im, from -110 to -120.”

And in more of a play against rather than a play on, Davis continued: “Wyndham Clark to beat Cam Young, from -110 to -125 along with Justin Thomas to beat Young, from -110 to -125. So, the sharps are fading Young there.”

Good luck!