Bolton: Assessing Wyndham Clark's prospects ahead of BMW Championship home game

With 15 golfers in the Power Rankings, five Sleepers and a few more below, I’ve hit in earnest about half of the field of 50 at the BMW Championship. The through line for all has been on what we usually can rely on when presented with an unfamiliar track like Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado – ball-striking.

It can’t be overstated the value of hitting full shots no matter the parkland layout even when conversions for altitude are necessary. With virtually zero course experience in the field – more on this beside Wyndham Clark below – even the best golfers on the PGA TOUR need a loop or two to find the pace of and read the undulations of the 5,600-square foot surfaces. Yes, some who are better putters than they are ball-strikers will play well because they’re professionals who know how to adapt, but they don’t fit the formula in advance for our purposes. Consider them primarily as contrarian plays in DFS and fantasy.

Next week’s TOUR Championship will determine the 18th winner of the FedExCup but the BMW Championship also is a celebration for all who have qualified. Although short-range individual goals always apply, whatever happens now is a bonus in the big picture.

For advancing to the second leg of the Playoffs, all 50 in the field secured starts in all eight Signature Events in 2025. In addition to the perks awaiting at each of those tournaments, the underrated component activated is the power to build the framework of a schedule for a potential gamechanger of a season.

If you’re not yet familiar with the Qualifiers page that I maintain, it now includes these promised exemptions in addition to spots already earned in THE PLAYERS Championship and the majors. It’s updated at least once weekly – usually by Monday morning – and can be found here.

The 30 who advance to East Lake Golf Club for the finale will add exemptions into the Masters, the U.S. Open and The Open Championship. Each also will be rewarded with a two-year membership extension through 2026, which is another foundational tool to long-range planning.

Weather

Since the first peek at the weather in Monday’s Power Rankings, the risk for rain and storms on the weekend has risen enough to mention here, but it should be hit-and-miss in the area. The stronger threat remains across the first two rounds.

All golfers are scheduled to go off the first tee in twosomes, so there is a chance that a portion of the field will be impacted more than others. This could be critical in DFS in which targeting the earliest starters in the first round has merit. Put some points on the board and let ‘em ride in advance of freshening winds. The eventual first-round leader also projects to have posted and watch it hold.

Power Rankings wild card

Wyndham Clark (-150 = Top 20) … There may never have been a better fit for this slot. The three-time PGA TOUR winner is a native of Denver, a legend as a high school golfer in Colorado and a current member at Castle Pines. He’s also fresh off a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he closed with 6-under 64.

So, what gives? Why wasn’t he in the Power Rankings, you wonder. Get in line.

My X has been buzzing with dissent over his omission. I had cited Adam Scott’s lone appearance in The International at Castle Pines in 2000, and he’s No. 15. The difference is that the Aussie is surging, so the connection to his previous trip was merely for the record. He’s the only golfer in the field who’s played the course in PGA TOUR competition.

Clark has enjoyed an exceptional year that has him positioned at sixth in the FedExCup, but he’s just not a great paper fit for the test. His tee-to-green game looks glossy but he’s been all gas and no brakes en route to an extreme year. It’s ridiculously lucrative for him but he’s also finished outside the top 30 on 10 occasions in 18 starts, half of those resulting in a missed cut. Just because he has far and away the most experience and course knowledge at Castle Pines isn’t enough reason to deviate from my process that reasons the 15 included.

A comp is another major champion, Stewart Cink, who is a member at East Lake Golf Club, but in seven appearances in the TOUR Championship, he has zero top 10s. And that field is just 30 deep. Granted, course experience is a factor at East Lake, but not even one top 10 for the guy whose membership predates turning pro who is curious for a talent like Cink.

All that said, Clark is all but a must-play in fantasy for defensive purposes. Despite my insight and analysis, my opinion will be in the minority. It’s not the first time, but at least you know why you’d be disagreeing with me if you invest.

Other notables

Aaron Rai (+250 = Top 10) … Why stop now? We’ve witnessed it so many times over the years at this juncture, and it was just last year when Lucas Glover won in consecutive weeks spanning the end of the regular season and the Playoffs. Rai won this year’s edition of the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago, and then finished T16 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s been one of the hottest talents on the planet this summer, and now he slides into Castle Pines as the archetype for what’s expected to translate well. Currently leading the PGA TOUR in fairways hit and ranks third in greens in regulation, seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and many other metrics before he reaches for the putter. Honestly, the Englishman should have been the guy over whom readers were clamoring as a snub from the Power Rankings.

Max Greyserman (+140 = Top 20) … For a bit of a local angle in the context of competition, consider the red-hot rookie who punctuated the last month with consecutive runner-up finishes at the 3M Open and Wyndham. And that’s not even because he’s been dealing to the tune of 15th in adjusted scoring for the season. It was a little over 13 months ago when he rose for a solo second at The Ascendant presented by Blue. It was contested north of Denver at TPC Colorado, which sits at about 5,000 feet above sea level. Among others in this week’s field, Davis Thompson (T6, 2022), Will Zalatoris (Win, 2020), Stephan Jaeger (T3, 2020) and Taylor Pendrith (T3, 2020) also have notable results on that course since it debuted in 2019.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama (+475 = Both Inside the Top 10)
• PARLAY: Ludvig Åberg and Hideki Matsuyama (+138 = Both Inside the Top 20)
• PARLAY: Akshay Bhatia and Adam Scott (+300 = Both Inside the Top 20)
• PARLAY: Nick Dunlap and Will Zalatoris (+375 = Both Inside the Top 20)
• Aaron Rai (+188 = Top English)

Rookie of the Year watch

With everything at stake at the BMW Championship, it probably won’t be a talking point that the Rookie of the Year likely will be determined by its outcome. But that’s only if history isn’t rewritten.

Although the eight tournaments in the FedExCup Fall officially contribute to the 2024 season after which eligible members vote for the winner of the Arnold Palmer Award, no Rookie of the Year ever has been eliminated from the FedExCup Playoffs before another rookie. Some have been the last man alive, while others either have bowed out along with at least one other or were among multiple to qualify for the TOUR Championship.

This year, three rookies have advanced to the BMW Championship. They are Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap and Max Greyserman. (Jake Knapp was the only other rookie who qualified for the Playoffs. He exited at 59th in the FedExCup following a solo 67th at the FedEx St. Jude.) Of the trio, Greyserman is the only non-winner but he’s 47th in the FedExCup, while Dunlap is 48th despite winning twice. Dunlap’s first victory at The American Express didn’t reward him with any FedExCup points and his title at the Barracuda Championship yielded only 300, but both victories would appear as achievements for his candidacy on the ballot.

Pavon prevailed at the Farmers Insurance Open for 500 FedExCup points. At 20th in the FedExCup, he’s a lock to reach the TOUR Championship, but is he the Rookie of the Year? Voting will be intriguing.

If Dunlap’s first win contributed to his FedExCup points, he’d have just 12.718 more points than Pavon. That difference is close to the value of but a two-way T43 in a non-major like the Farmers, but Dunlap still has work to do to join Pavon in Atlanta. What’s more, in the 13 tournaments in which both Pavon and Dunlap have competed, their head-to-head records are 6-6-1.

I’ve tracked all 29 rookies in a weekly thread on X. For a snapshot of the latest edition that includes season-long data, click or tap here.

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