Benny and the Bets: Altitude history gives hints on best bets at BMW Championship

CASTLE ROCK, Colo. – Sometimes the data set isn’t as robust as you want it to be when it comes to finding a winner on the PGA TOUR so you have to look behind the layers.

The BMW Championship from Castle Pines Golf Club just south of Denver is one of these occasions.

First, we are playing a stupendously sounding 8,130 yards. A misleading number because of the fact we are roughly 6,200 feet above sea level, giving us maybe a 12% addition to usual yardage. The old rule of thumb is 2% per 1000 feet but this isn’t exact and it means players have to adjust their numbers and leaning on the season stat lines this week is skewed.

In layman’s terms, a player dialed in with the wedges last week has to now adjust for altitude and the 400-foot elevation drop and rise at this course. It’s new math, and they only have a short time to learn it.

Second, the TOUR hasn’t played here since 2006 and just two of the 50 players in the field have played here in TOUR competition. Adam Scott (2000) and his fellow Australian Jason Day (2006) each had a start at The International. So we don’t have past results to lean on.

Instead, we need to look at some more recent altitude events and see if we can’t find some decent results from players in the field.

The 2014 BMW Championship played at Cherry Hills in Denver was missing many of this season’s stars. Billy Horschel won a decade ago but Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele were still kids.

The TOUR also spent a few years in Mexico City for the WGC-Mexico Championship from 2017-20, playing over 8000 feet above sea level. The DP World Tour long held the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre in Switzerland.

And to a lesser extent, we have the Barracuda Championship that was at Montreux Golf & Country Club in Reno (which ranges between 5,476-5,952 feet above sea level) and now in Truckee, California, at 6,000 feet.

Matt Fitzpatrick, who won twice at Crans on the DP World Tour was one of the first on the Castle Pines range with his Trackman device out. He suggested the most important aspect of this week was getting your own math right. You not only need to know your distances, but also your launch angles and how it will all be affected.

Another TOUR pro cheekily said, “Strokes Gained: Intellect” might be the key stat of the week. His theory was those who can educate themselves quickly and trust the new numbers will be those who prosper.

Schauffele hit his drive off the 662-yard par 5, first hole on Monday in the middle of the fairway. He then took four irons out of his bag and his Trackman to try to figure out which would be best on the severe downhill approach. You might see indecision from the best in the world between two clubs … but four is rare! So he who does the most homework could be ready to win.

When dissecting recent altitude contenders we see Ludvig Åberg was a winner in Switzerland last season. Other players in the field this week to have a good career at Crans include Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren and of course Fitzpatrick. Not only did Fitzpatrick win in 2017 and 2018 but he was runner-up in 2015 and T7 in 2016.

In the old WGC in Mexico, Justin Thomas was a bit of a specialist … never winning but finishing in the top 10 all four times it was held at altitude. Rory McIlroy had three top 10s (and a runner-up at Crans in 2019) in Mexico while Fleetwood, Brian Harman, Patrick Cantlay, Eric van Rooyen, Hideki Matsuyama and Horschel all had one over the four years.

Van Rooyen’s name pops out at the Barracuda over the last decade where he won in 2021. Collin Morikawa, Akshay Bhatia and Nick Dunlap have all won there. Dunlap is coming off contending last week and he won the U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills nearby last year. Noren also pops up again with two top 10s.

Cantlay also plays well in Las Vegas, but that’s nowhere near as high as Colorado. Plenty of love is coming for Utah native Tony Finau also. He’s been a sleeper almost all season, playing well without fully popping.

While that’s altitude form, current form also can’t be denied. Matsuyama, last week’s winner, can’t be discounted. Since the FedExCup Playoffs began in 2007, 12 different players have won multiple events inside the Playoffs, including Viktor Hovland last season. Momentum can be critical.

And what of the FedExCup chase itself? Some of the 50 players here are just happy to have made it, secured Signature Event status, and will freewheel it in Denver. Those at the back of the points list could do a Hovland and Dunlap and catch fire while playing aggressively.

Conversely, those on the bubble chasing the TOUR Championship are going to feel the chaotic nerves that got to the likes of Tom Kim and Justin Rose last week. So beware of betting the bubble boys.

It is this fact that has me worried regarding Fleetwood. We must balance his good altitude history against the fact he’s 31st in the FedExCup and as such will be sweating the bubble all week. As good as he’s been in his career, closing under pressure hasn’t been his strongest suit.

Protecting a leaderboard position is hard. On the other hand Matt Fitzpatrick, at 36th in the FedExCup, is far enough back on the points list where a middling result won’t cut it. He will be all in and playing aggressively.

And then the chalk at the top wants the momentum, and the starting strokes, at East Lake. As bad as McIlroy was last week, you can’t assume this week will be the same. He could afford to coast in Memphis, now he’s looking to ramp it back up.

Personally, I’m also using the eye test. Having been in Memphis and seeing Schauffele move up the leaderboard with really not a huge incentive to do so and then spending time watching his Monday practice round… I’m all in for the next two weeks. I think we see him do the Hovland double from last season. A riskier play at higher odds is Åberg. He’s not been great lately but this course could see him turn things around.

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Xander Schauffele +600, Ludvig Åberg +2200
• Top 10: Matt Fitzpatrick +320, Patrick Cantlay +150
• Top 20: Alex Noren +125
• Longshots: Nick Dunlap +6600, Matt Fitzpatrick +5500