Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler favored to snag first Playoffs trophy in mountain air

The 50 players this week at the BMW Championship are already winners, as they have all punched their tickets to the eight Signature Events of 2025. Scottie Scheffler (+333) has locked up everything for the upcoming season but is looking to add his name to a FedExCup Playoffs trophy for the first time. He’ll tee off this week as the betting favorite as the PGA TOUR returns to Castle Pines Golf Club outside Denver for the first time since 2006.

The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings and FedExCup standings leads the field into the second round of the Playoffs, according to BetMGM Sportsbook oddsmakers. Posting four rounds in the 60s last week at sea level in Memphis, Tennessee, was good enough for fourth place. A victory in the Rocky Mountains at 6,200 feet of altitude on a par-72 track measuring 8,130 yards would assure him the most starting strokes under par next week at The TOUR Championship. According to my colleague Ben Everill, he is one of the 48 players making his tournament debut on this Jack Nicklaus design. The Texan won at Jack’s place, the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, earlier this season in Ohio.

Sitting nine shots off the 54-hole lead in Memphis, Xander Schauffele (+550) raced up the board late on Sunday afternoon to remind everyone that he’s not conceding anything to anybody. Sharing the low round of the day and week with a bogey-free 63, the Californian lipped out a chip on the final hole that, at the time, would have vaulted him into the lead. Settling for a share of second place, the two-time winner this year added his third runner-up finish and removed any doubts that his season ended after winning his second major championship, The Open Championship, in July. Only Scheffler sits above him in the points race.

The only man to win three FedExCup titles finished in the bottom three last week in Memphis. Rory McIlroy (+1000) attempts to bounce back in the mountains south of Denver on a double black diamond run from Jack Nicklaus. Dropping from third to fifth in the Playoffs standings, the two-time winner this season can put those final 54 holes in the rear-view mirror with a bounce-back effort at Castle Pines. Losing strokes to the field from the tee and into the greens last week will be sorted out on the range before he tees off on Thursday. The only winner of the BMW Championship from the top three choices, the Ulsterman won the 2012 edition at Crooked Stick.

Like McIlroy, Collin Morikawa (+1400) needed 72 holes to knock the rust off after four rounds in Paris for the Olympics. One of the best ball-strikers on TOUR lost shots to the field off the tee and into the greens last week. Despite those numbers, the Californian extended his streak to 13 consecutive events, cashing T24 or better with a T22 payday. Playing his sixth consecutive BMW Championship, the two-time major champion is looking for his first result inside T20. Returning to greens of a Bent/Poa mix should help keep the confidence in his flat stick.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) added to his legendary status in his native Japan by becoming the first Japanese to win a FedExCup Playoffs event. With the win, his 10th on TOUR, he moved to third in the Playoffs standings and will advance to East Lake for the 10th time in 11 seasons. With a win this week, he would be the first player to win the first two events of the Playoffs since Bryson DeChambeau in 2018. The two-time winner in 2024 will return to Colorado for the first time since his maiden BMW Championship voyage up the road at Cherry Hills in 2014, won by Billy Horschel (+3300).

The defending FedExCup Playoffs champion and BMW Championship winner, Viktor Hovland (+1800), decided he was not going quietly in defense. Needing a big finish last week after entering outside the top 50 at No. 54, the Norwegian, buoyed by big-time ball-striking, picked up his first top 10 since cashing third at the PGA Championship. He will look to join Patrick Cantlay as back-to-back winners at the BMW Championship.

The BWM Championship winner twice in the last three years, Patrick Cantlay (+2000), bogeyed the final hole in Memphis to miss out on a T10 finish and settled for T12. The Californian has won the previous two BMW Championships when it has been hosted on new courses (Wilmington Country Club in Delaware, Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland) and has feasted at Jack’s place in Ohio, Muirfield Village. With his ticket punched to East Lake and currently at No. 9 in the rankings, the 2021 FedExCup winner can focus on the trophy on offer this week.

After opening his FedExCup Playoffs account with T40 in Memphis, the cooler, thinner air in Colorado should provide a bounce-back effort this week from Sweden’s Ludvig Åberg (+2000). Ranking in the top 12 on TOUR in SG: Off the Tee and Approach the Green, those who excel from tee to green this week should be contending on Sunday.

Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the field via BetMGM plus the current FedExCup standings bubble with only the top 30 advancing to next week’s TOUR Championship:

• +2500: Tommy Fleetwood
• +2800: Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark
• +3300: Aaron Rai, Billy Horschel
• +4000: Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Sungjae Im
• +4500: Adam Scott, Jason Day, Corey Conners
• +5000: Akshay Bhatia, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris
• +5500: Shane Lowry
• +6000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
• +6600: Denny McCarthy, Eric Cole, Max Greyserman, Alex Noren, Brian Harman, Byeong Hun An, Nick Dunlap, Sepp Straka, Taylor Pendrith
• +8000: Austin Eckroat, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim
• +9000: Cam Davis
• +10000: J.T. Poston, Max Homa, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge
• +12500: Chris Kirk, Stephan Jaeger
• +15000: Matthieu Pavon, Adam Hadwin

Updated FedExCup points bubble:

How the BMW Championship works:

• A field of 50 players.
• There are no alternates for any FedExCup Playoffs events.
• The Official World Golf Rankings are represented by nine of the top 10 and 41 of the top 50 players.
• None of the Playoffs events feature a 36-hole cut.
• The top 30 players in points at the end of four rounds advance to the TOUR Championship next week at East Lake Golf Club outside Atlanta.
• The winner takes home 2,000 FedExCup points and $3.6 million from the $20 million purse.

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