Golfbet recap: Hideki Matsuyama holds on for Playoffs victory after wild finish in Memphis

It’s never easy to win a golf tournament. Especially a FedExCup Playoffs event.

It looked easy for a long time, but Hideki Matsuyama managed to make things incredibly interesting – too interesting for his own liking or for any bettors holding a ticket on him, I imagine, as he held on by a thread on the back nine on Sunday to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship by two shots over Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele.

Matsuyama began the final round on Sunday at TPC Southwind with a five-shot lead at 17-under. He was a -450 favorite to close the deal. He led six over Hovland, who began the day at +2000 to get the win. He led by nine shots over Schauffele. Schauffele was 1-under on his round after two holes and at the time, +6600 to win the tournament.

Round-by-round odds for Hideki Matsuyama to win (via BetMGM)

• Pre-tournament: +2500
• After Round 1 (T2, trailed by one): +750
• After Round 2 (co-leader): +300
• After Round 3 (led by five): -450

Schauffele got out to a hot start and was 4-under through six holes. The Champion Golfer of the Year was now +2000 to kick off the postseason with a victory.

Meanwhile, Matsuyama waited until the par-3 eighth hole to make his first birdie of the afternoon. He holed a 38-foot putt to get to 18-under and was now -800 to win the golf tournament. Matsuyama made the turn, still holding onto a five-shot lead, and was now -1000 to win what would be his first-ever FedExCup Playoffs triumph.

It was at the 11th hole, another par 3, that Matsuyama drilled another long putt for birdie. This time a 20-footer to get to 19-under. He was still five shots ahead of Schauffele and Hovland and had become a -3000 favorite to win. He was shortly taken off the board and the only odds remaining were on who was going to finish in second place. Both Hovland and Schauffele were +120 in this market.

Outright results for Golfbet Expert Picks:

• Will Gray: Sungjae Im (+3300) T40
• Ben Everill: Rory McIlroy (+1000) T68
• Chris Breece: Xander Schauffele (+800) T2
• Matt DelVecchio: Ludvig Åberg (+1800) T40
• Rob Bolton: Rory McIlroy (+1000) T68
• Mike Glasscott: Billy Horschel (+4500) T10

And it was then that things started to get interesting – way too interesting for many as we noted – including myself. As I pointed out in this week’s Prop Farm article, Matsuyama was one of my pre-tournament selections.

Matsuyama, who finished the day hitting only seven of 14 fairways, missed five in a row between Nos. 12-16. He was 4-over for that stretch, making double bogey at No. 15 and making only a par at the par-5 16th hole, which was playing as the easiest hole on the course. We were now in a three-way tie across the top and Schauffele had become the favorite to win the championship. He was in the clubhouse at 15-under after firing a round of 63.

It was then Hovland, who stuffed his approach shot on No. 18 to 9 feet and had become the favorite to win this in regulation. But back came Matsuyama, holing yet another big putt that put an exclamation point on the day. It was the third birdie putt of his round that the 2021 Masters champion had holed from 20 feet or more. This one, an uphill left-to-righter from 26 feet on No. 17 that found the bottom of the cup to give Matsuyama the lead by himself once again – after Hovland had missed his birdie attempt up ahead on the final hole.

Safely finding the fairway on the final hole with a one-shot lead, Matsuyama was back to a -800 favorite to secure the crown. And that he did by rolling in a second straight birdie for good measure – this time from just 6 feet – to bring an end to the madness.

Matsuyama ended the day back right where he started – at 17-under with an even-par round of 70. He moves from eighth in the FedExCup standings to third heading into next week’s BMW Championship at Castle Pines in Colorado, where the top 50 players on the points list will be in the field.

Playing in the final pairing with Matsuyama was Nick Dunlap, who ended up tied for fifth. Beginning the week at 67th in the standings, he moves inside the top 50 and will be back for more next week. Hovland and Eric Cole were two others who began the week outside of the top 50 and finished on the inside. Tom Kim, Jake Knapp and Mackenzie Hughes all began the week in position to tee it up next week in Colorado but finished in Memphis on the wrong side of 50.

Out of 70 players in the field, Matsuyama finished the week ranked 15th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, third in SG: Approach and No. 1 in SG: Putting. He was also fourth for Greens in Regulation and 18th in Scrambling. His pre-tournament odds to win this week at BetMGM Sportsbooks were +2500. Off of a win and with a smaller field, Matsuyama might be less than +1800 next week. See you in the Rocky Mountains.

Results from Rob Bolton Sleeper Picks and Golfbet Insider:

• Maverick McNealy to win (+8000) T12
• Victor Perez Top 5 finish (+2000) T40
• Ben Griffin Top 10 finish (+600) T50
• Erik van Rooyen Top 20 finish (+333) T33
• Seamus Power Top 30 finish (+125) T10
• Viktor Hovland Top 20 finish (+110)
• Chris Kirk Top 30 finish (+110) T50
• Taylor Pendrith Top 20 finish (+250) T22
• Corey Conners Top Canadian (+138) T50
• Max Greyserman Top 20 finish (+240) T33
• Sungjae Im Top Asian (+300) T40
• Taylor Moore Top 20 finish (+250) 66th
• Erik van Rooyen Top South African (+160) T33

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