Bolton: Embrace the action, ignore the noise at Wyndham Championship

Because of its timing, the Wyndham Championship serves as a terrific example of the difference between the mainstream narratives and how we as bettors go about our business.

This is the 36th and final stop of the regular season. When the last stroke is made at Sedgefield Country Club and the results are official, the top 70 in the FedExCup will set the field for the Playoffs. That competition within the competition will feed into conversations and storylines, as it should. Drama is guaranteed and it makes for good television. Just leave it there.

Feel free to peruse the minimum finishes required for all golfers outside the top 70 to crash into the FedExCup Playoffs, but once you scroll or swipe to the table, you’ll learn that only five can finish outside the top 20 at Sedgefield and still have a mathematical chance to advance.

It’s no different than another week when the same boxing out is occurring in the ranks, albeit without the kind of focus to which this tournament is treated, but any golfer who feels the pressure late in a finale won’t have arrived at the moment because he’s making decisions based on his position in the FedExCup.

Embrace the action but ignore the noise.

WEATHER

The storm formerly known as Hurricane Debby will soak the Triad through Friday. As it concerns the golf tournament, the bad news is drainage at Sedgefield will be tested and delays in play can’t be ruled out. The good news is that Saturday is shaping up to be mostly sunny and the entire weekend will be dry. With quite a bit of daylight in early August, a Sunday finish is realistic.

The strongest of the winds will remain near the coast but sustained breezes of about 15 mph are expected across the first two rounds. So, if there’s a delay that pushes the second round into Saturday, its late draw projects to have the best of the conditions before the cut.

Tip your visor to all course personnel for going above and beyond to present Sedgefield at its best given the circumstances.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Jordan Spieth (+175 = Miss the Cut) … He said all the right things in his meeting with the media on Tuesday. By that, I mean that he didn’t try to make excuses or cover for what’s been a down season. And heck, he’s 62nd in the FedExCup, so he’s a virtual lock to qualify for the Playoffs, anyway. While he could be headed for surgery on his left wrist later in the year, he said that he has no pain but that there could be something on the subconscious level that’s led to inconsistency. No doubt any deviation for any professional athlete at the highest level can be more glaring when compared to others, and even himself when healthy, but it’s possible that he introduced a bad habit for discomfort a while ago. That alone mutes his promise, but with the uncooperative weather for the first two rounds, it’s tough to feel confident about this week being the week that he turns it around even though he has everything to gain and nothing to lose. He’s missed six cuts in the last five months, too.

OTHER NOTABLES

Justin Rose (+250 = Top 20) … It’d be unfair to expect him to perform as impressively as he did at The Open Championship where he shared runner-up honors, but that he’s committed at all this week is a great sign. The Englishman is 52nd in the FedExCup and safe to advance into the series, but he’s just outside the next bubble to advance two deep, so that he’s beginning the march now is reassuring. Since returning to Sedgefield in 2020 after a long hiatus, he’s 2-for-3 with a T10 in 2021.

Will Zalatoris (+120 = Top 40) … Yes, that’s plus value for that finish for this guy. If you love it, multiply the units. If you don’t, he’s not an option to Miss the Cut at BetMGM, so abstain. He’s missed time due to back and hip discomfort, but really it’s been more of a learning process in response to his microdiscectomy early last year. He cited on Tuesday that he’s 100%, and he’s 45th in the FedExCup, but he hasn’t had a top 40 since the Masters (T9). Both of his last two trips to Sedgefield yielded top 30s, so that you’d be getting more back than what you put into the hope this week is supported by the evidence on a whole.

Denny McCarthy (+250 = Top 20) … He’s 44th in the FedExCup, so a solid week at Sedgefield would set him up for a third straight two-tournament run in the Playoffs. (He finished 36th and a career-best 33rd in the FedExCup in 2022 and 2023, respectively.) That helps explain his appearance this week but he’s been a regular in the tournament since his rookie season of 2017-18, anyway. With a T9 (in 2020) and another pair of top 25s to show for the work, there’s enough positive reinforcement on course history alone to lean into this finish. And although he missed the cut in the last two editions, his fit remains superb as one of the best putters you’ll ever see. Sedgefield’s greens require the kind of moxie that he possesses.

TAP-INS

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• SPECIAL: Sungjae Im to be in the final group in Round 4 (+700)
• Ryan Brehm (+800 = Top 40)
• Max Greyserman (+300 = Top 20)
• Stephen Jaeger (+110 = Top 40)
• Justin Lower (+200 = Top 40)
• Maverick McNealy (+240 = Top 20)
• Mac Meissner (+130 = Top 40)
• Henrik Norlander (+275 = Top Scandinavian)
• Henrik Norlander (+220 = Top 40)
• Aaron Rai (+333 = Top Brit and Irish)
• Jhonattan Vegas (+110 = Top 40)

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

S.Y. Noh … Committed to the Korn Ferry Tour’s Pinnacle Bank Championship presented by Woodhouse. He’s 94th on that circuit’s points list and poised to peg it as often as he can, but he’s also 173rd in the FedExCup and about 161 points outside the top 125. So, once the FedExCup Fall begins and he’s within range to sneak into fields on merit, he could be a spoiler. Although he’s garnered attention here because a sore wrist forced him out of the 3M Open during his second round, he had just hung up a T6 at the ISCO Championship and a T24 at the Barracuda Championship, so things were coming together. For the time being, salary leaguers should put him on their watch list for 2025.

NOTABLE WDs

Jake Knapp … The rookie is 47th in the FedExCup, so he’ll qualify for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but this also would’ve been a return to action after a shoulder injury knocked him out of the 3M Open after the third round. No matter what, he’ll be back in focus on this page next week.

Robby Shelton … With an 0-for-3 record at Sedgefield and sitting 141st in the FedExCup, he wasn’t poised to generate much of a handle if one at all, anyway. Our next look at him on the PGA TOUR would be the Procore Championship on Sept. 12.

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