Benny and The Bets: Plenty of value around potential medalists at Olympics

One might argue that golf, of all the Olympic sports, could actually provide the old-school Olympic fairytale for someone more likely than anywhere else.

While the last-ranked swimmer from Equatorial Guinea doesn’t have much chance to win gold, the +75000 longshot in golf (Camilo Villegas) has five PGA TOUR wins, including his last coming in November last year. The Colombian could find some magic in France.

It wouldn’t be unprecedented. Since returning to the Olympic stage in Rio in 2016 we’ve seen some surprising podium members. While Justin Rose winning gold wasn’t a huge shock, Matt Kuchar sneaking in for bronze with a final-round 63 was.

Xander Schauffele won gold in Tokyo, again, not a huge upset by any means, but Rory Sabbatini winning silver for Slovakia was certainly not on any handicapper’s radar.

And if you picked C.T. Pan to grab the bronze in a playoff over local hero Hideki Matsuyama, multiple major winners Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa plus Paul Casey, Sebastian Munoz and Mito Pereira… well, you’re Nostradamus.

I have a feeling we might see a similar script at Le Golf National this week just outside of Paris. While a chalky gold medal winner could well be on the cards, so too could a surprise medalist from the 60-man field.

Let’s start with the favorites, where personally I see the gold medal winner coming from.

At BetMGM Sportsbook, Americans Scottie Scheffler (+400) and Xander Schauffele (+550) lead the odds boards and no one would be shocked to see either of this season’s best players add a gold medal to their trophy case.

In the past, Le Golf National has demanded precision from tee to green to avoid its penal rough and while it isn’t as thick as the Europeans set it up for the 2018 Ryder Cup, it is still at a juicy 2.5 inches. Scheffler ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season with Schauffele third. Rory McIlroy, the third favorite at +850, is second in that statistic.

I’ll extend the chalk in the field to Collin Morikawa (+1100), Jon Rahm (+1100) and Ludvig Åberg (+1200). Morikawa (eighth) and Åberg (11th) also have impressive SG: Tee-to-Green stats while Morikawa is also fourth in driving accuracy.

Out of this bunch, my lean is to recent Open champion Schauffele – the hot hand of a reigning Olympic Gold medalist – and Morikawa who has played consistently great this season without a victory.

Now, with the history of the minor medals having some surprises, this allows us to turn to the place markets with longshots on our minds.

While the players are shooting for the three medals on offer, as bettors, the markets remain the usual Top 5 and Top 10 plays we see most weeks.

When looking at these markets, I’m searching for these potential medal winners with one big thing in mind. While the stats are key as always, I want a proven passion for their country. There is something different about putting on your nation's colors and playing for something greater than yourself. Golfers are by nature individualists but those who can tap into the Olympic spirit become wildcards this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (+300 Top 5) was a beast at Le Golf National in the 2018 Ryder Cup, something I was lucky enough to witness firsthand. He rode the passion of the vent to a 5-0 effort and I could see him contending here again. He also won the French Open in 2017.

There might not be a more passionate man out there than Ireland’s Shane Lowry (+333 Top 5). With his season punctuated with some near misses in majors, Lowry could wipe some of the disappointment away with a big week in Paris.

But neither of those are what we’d call surprise results. So let’s go deeper.

Canada’s Corey Conners (+450 Top 5, +160 Top 10) is a known ball-striker who should suit the course. Fourth in SG: Approach this season, seventh Tee-to-Green, 15th in SG: Total… Oh, Canada indeed.

Austria’s Sepp Straka (+600 Top 5, +240 Top 10) leads the PGA TOUR in driving accuracy and was an early leader in Tokyo before slipping from the contest. He’s a better player now having won twice on the PGA TOUR and represented Europe in the Ryder Cup.

Sweden’s Alex Noren (+450 Top 5, +160 Top 10) has had a very consistent PGA TOUR season, at one point stringing together eight straight top-25s. He’s a former winner at Le Golf National (in 2018), one of many great performances on the venue, including snagging two points in the Ryder Cup.

Another name perhaps not on everyone’s radar is Italy’s Guido Migliozzi (+1100 Top 5, +400 Top 10, +125 Top 20). A four-time DP World Tour winner, with one of those coming at – you guessed it – Le Golf National. Migliozzi is coming off a decent effort at Royal Troon (T31) and could surprise.

Lastly, I can’t finish the column without putting up an Aussie! Min Woo Lee has embraced everything to do with the Olympics, joining the opening ceremony and watching other sports … he’s ready to cook at +240 for a Top-10 finish.

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