Bolton: Govern units responsibly at 3M Open

With so much action in the last week, you may have missed the release of the schedule for the FedExCup Fall. As expected, it includes the Presidents Cup and eight official tournaments that will help determine PGA TOUR membership statuses in 2025 among other things. Also, between the conclusion of the TOUR Championship on Labor Day weekend and Thanksgiving, there will be three off-weeks.

I wanted to pass it along as a courtesy, but it has nothing to do with this week’s 3M Open, nor should it. While narratives over time can be compelling in conversation, betting considerations must be limited to familiar processes for the here and now.

TPC Twin Cities is both a site that will reward taut form upon arrival and the opportunity to reconnect with one’s game. The par 71 features three par 5s and the bentgrass greens average 6,500 square feet, so there’s room to be a little squirrelly and allow the putter to do work. All that said, the winner and also-rans largely will be defined by both – hitting greens in regulation and converting those chances into par breakers. It’s a shootout, after all.

Still, and just as you are almost every week, you’re going to be pressed to make tough decisions while governing your units responsibly. When you’ve exhausted your proven process and you’re still in a toss-up, then go ahead and plug a short-range goal into the equation to learn if it matters.

Examples: Would you rather have a guy who’s comfortably inside the top-70 bubble for a berth in the FedExCup Playoffs over a guy in the same market who isn’t a lock, or vice versa? Or how about a guy for whom it’s unrealistic to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs but fairly reasonable to land inside the top 125 at the finish line of the FedExCup Fall?

For almost every argument, there’s a worthy counter, so it’s why every decision is golfer-specific. If you’re not yet in a position where this is a natural exercise, keep it up until it is. This is an environment-rich time of the season to be educated on who’s built for the pressure and who isn’t.

Weather

The timing for the greatest threat of uncooperative conditions remains on Sunday, so that’s worth monitoring, especially for the seven in the field who have travel plans to Paris to participate in the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition. As it concerns us, however, the late-early draw has the edge on the wind across the first two rounds. As always, this could change but keep your eyes on the live outright markets for your favorites who open on Thursday afternoon.

Power Rankings wild card

Sam Burns (+200 = Top 10) … Given that he was omitted from the Power Rankings, you can infer that my expectations are tempered at TPC Twin Cities. He’s second-shortest on the boards behind Tony Finau, so I wouldn’t see the point in devoting more than a fraction of a unit to this finish. Burns is a tweener most weeks, but he’s a beast relative to this field, so it’d be tough to pocket decent coin unless he overachieves relative to my analysis. He’s (-110) for a Top 20, so that’d be the hobbyist’s play just to have action. This is his third appearance but first in four years when he finished T32.

Other Notables

Erik van Rooyen (+350 = Top 10) … Here’s another player who’s having a terrific year who also isn’t my Power Rankings. For him, however, it’s part history and part wondering how much he’ll be looking ahead. You can’t blame him given that he’ll be representing South Africa at the Olympics next week. And despite a 1-for-3 slate with a T58 in 2021 at TPC Twin Cities, it’s in the backyard of where he cut his teeth at the University of Minnesota, so you know that he’s not going to miss the chance to give it a go in this tournament. So, I’m leaning into the promise of this payday. He emerged with victory at the World Wide Technology Championship last fall as his former college teammate and friend, Jon Trasamar, was near death. What better way to honor the relationship than with an all-out dash at the trophy with the home crowd in support.

Mackenzie Hughes (+210 = Top 20) … Pleasantly surprised to find this value. This is his third appearance at TPC Twin Cities, so there’s ample experience to top last year’s T30, which is the better of his pair of results. He’s also on the bounce of a relatively stress-free T16 at The Open Championship, which was his fifth top 20 in four months. Tends to gravitate to the extremes on paper, so it’s not inaccurate that you’re truly after lightning in a bottle even though it’s been captured many times. Profiles better on harder tracks but by no means is he a one-dimensional Canuck. Currently 50th in the FedExCup but only 16th among Internationals in their Presidents Cup standings.

Patrick Rodgers (+200 = Top 20) … He’s as close to automatic for a top-40 finish as you’ll find with three of them in as many trips to TPC Twin Cities and four straight upon arrival, but he’s just (-120) for that this week. So, consider the next best thing at BetMGM. Remember that he eschewed a start at the Genesis Scottish Open in favor of a break ahead of last week’s perennial leaderboard appearance at the Barracuda Championship (T5).

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Rico Hoey and Sam Stevens (+950 = Both to Finish Inside the Top 20)
• PARLAY: Cam Davis, Maverick McNealy and Erik van Rooyen (+210 = All to Make the Cut)
• Max Greyserman (+250 = Top 20)
• Chesson Hadley (+140 = Top 40)
• S.H. Kim (+140 = Top 40)
• Martin Laird (+175 = Top 40)
• S.Y. Noh (+200 = Top 40)
• Henrik Norlander (+200 = Top 40)
• Taylor Pendrith (+275 = Top Canadian)
• Sam Ryder (+140 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Daniel Berger (+160 = Top 40) … Back after it for the fifth consecutive week but this time after an interrupted effort at the Barracuda Championship where a sore knee forced him to walk off Tahoe Mountain Club’s Old Greenwood Course during his second round. He’s failed to cash since a T21 at the U.S. Open and he’s without a top 10 in 18 starts since resuming his career after an extended break due to a bad back. The 31-year-old currently is 136th in the FedExCup and not yet fully exempt for 2025. TPC Twin Cities was pretty good to him in his only prior trip. It resulted in a T15 in 2019.

K.H. Lee … He keeps trying but discomfort in his back bumped him during both of his last two starts – the Genesis Scottish Open and the Barracuda Championship. At 112th in the FedExCup, he has leverage to retain a spot inside the top 125 at the conclusion of the season, but obviously, a position inside the top 70 for a FedExCup Playoffs bid would be more lucrative.

Vince Covello … Committed to the NV5 Invitational presented by Old National Bank on the Korn Ferry Tour. He hasn’t teed it up in sanctioned competition since the 2020 Wyndham Championship during which he withdrew with an injured back, but he has appeared a couple of times in the interim at the annual Henry Tuten Gator Bowl Pro-Am at Sea Island. Now 41 years of age, the University of North Florida product still has 17 starts on a Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR, so monitor his progress as he’d be a penny stock in salary leagues if healthy in 2025.

Notable WDs

Justin Rose … This would’ve marked his tournament debut, but his two-way T2 at The Open Championship lifted the Englishman to 52nd in the FedExCup, so he’s comfortably inside the bubble to qualify for the Playoffs.

Aaron Rai … A well-deserved break. He had played four straight through The Open Championship. At 53rd in the FedExCup, he’s headed to the Playoffs for the third time in as many tries.

Mark Hubbard … He and Rai have played all of the same events since the Texas Children’s Houston Open on the last weekend of March except for last week when the American finished T17 at the Barracuda Championship. He’s 63rd in the FedExCup.

Lucas Glover … Since he’s 72nd in FedExCup points, his only remaining chance to crash the Playoffs will be in two weeks at the Wyndham Championship … where he’ll be the defending champion.

Membership notes

Thriston Lawrence … As I stated in the Power Rankings for the Corales Puntacana Championship in which he was slotted at No. 7, “the South African is accomplished at 27 years of age but perhaps unknown in the U.S. That will change sooner than later.” If three months qualify as sooner, then he’s delivered on cue. His solo fourth at The Open Championship yielded enough non-member FedExCup points to clear the threshold for Special Temporary Membership this season. He’s the first among the eligible to reach it. Whether he accepts remains to be seen but he’s vaulted to second among the eligible DP World Tour members to snare PGA TOUR membership in 2025. So, even if the 3M Open is just a spot start (because the DP World Tour is off for three weeks), he’s now worthy of protection in keeper leagues.

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