Prop Farm: ‘Ample support’ among bettors that Tiger Woods will make the cut at Royal Troon

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele headline the betting board this week at The Open Championship, but there some other more unexpected names that could create an international sweat for Las Vegas oddsmakers – not to mention they’ll be keeping an eye on another familiar name.

On the eve of the opening round at Royal Troon, oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich shared that his largest concern is a recent major winner, but likely not the one you’re thinking of.

“Wyndham Clark is getting a ton of action. Our biggest liability of the legitimate guys who can win,” Bogdanovich said. “Tony Finau and Cameron Young are also drawing strong action.”

Drew O’Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM, pointed out one significant wager they have taken this week in the outright market that also fits the unexpected trend: $4,000 on Akshay Bhatia at +10000. That would net the bettor a $400,000 profit should the southpaw lift the claret jug.

Director of Race and Sports at The Borgata, Thomas Gable, is seeing yet additional variety as far as what beans are sprouting up at his shop.

“Our two biggest liabilities are Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa,” said Gable. “Hovland actually has the most tickets written on him for an outright winner of anyone in the field. It is both sharp and recreational play on Morikawa.”

Finally some consistency in production here, as renown Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman is also seeing a lot of love for the 2021 Open champion. “Morikawa is leading in ticket count and money wagered,” said Sherman.

While the crop has seen a great deal of diversity in the outright market, some of the more familiar faces are showing up elsewhere on the prop betting menu.

“YES on Tiger Woods to make the cut has seen ample support,” said Sherman. Also noting that he has seen good two-way action on what Woods’ opening-round score will be. A similar story for O’Dell at BetMGM. “The most bet player to make the cut, as far as ticket count, is Tiger Woods at +200.”

Sherman went on to add that Ludvig Åberg is second in both categories and that jived with what Tristan Davis is seeing down the street at Mandalay Bay.

“The punters are giving Åberg another chance this week,” said Davis. Åberg had a two-shot lead heading into the final round at the Genesis Scottish Open last week, only to see it slip away on the inward nine. The 24-year-old Swede will be playing in his first-ever Open this week at Royal Troon. “I think there is a belief in (bettors) that the major win is not far away and they will continue to bet him as long as he keeps performing. He’s been the best bet in Nevada despite a slight betting drift in the price.”

O’Dell notes that Morikawa and Åberg are No. 1 and No. 2 at BetMGM for a top-10 finish. “They are first and second in terms of ticket count, Morikawa at +140 and Aberg at +115.”

While we see a consistent appetite for Morikawa and Åberg near the top of the odds board, the inconsistency continued among the longer shots.

“We also have some liability on Sepp Straka,” said Gable. “He was as high as +10000, which we saw some respected players take that price.”

Finally, a couple of other names bearing some fruit in the outright market at Mandalay Bay. “Another crowd favorite amongst the punters when majors come up is Brooks Koepka,” said Davis. “His odds for the Open are a lot higher than what we have seen with the three U.S. majors. That has not deterred the punters though and they have been more than happy to snap up the +4000 odds this week.”

The 20-year veteran oddsmaker and native Australian continued on. “Further down the page there is one to note: some action on Corey Conners this week. It’s recreational but worth noting as he mostly has been a player that has not made much noise in our books so interesting to see him pop up this week.”

Interesting indeed. I actually took a stab with Conners myself this week. The short game is always a question mark, but he is one of the best ball-strikers in the world – and that was a similar storyline coming into The Open in 2016 for eventual champion, Henrik Stenson. Conners has made three straight cuts at The Open and finished 13th last week at The Renaissance Club.

Don’t forget about McIlroy, who is coming off of consecutive top-6 finishes in The Open and a fourth-place finish last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he won in 2023. Bogdanovich noted, “The YES on Rory for a top-10 finish this week is getting plenty of love.”

I played McIlroy for a top-10 finish myself and also went one step further on an outright win. Renowned golf architect Martin Ebert was behind the work done here at Royal Troon between the 2016 Open Championship and this year’s edition. He has also done quite a bit of work at Royal Liverpool, where McIlroy won in 2014 and finished sixth last year. Finally, Ebert has also done significant work at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in Canada where McIlroy has won the RBC Canadian Open (2019) and finished fourth earlier this season. Given this connective tissue, McIlroy’s history at The Open overall, and how he is playing currently, I believe the McIlroy crop will be a profitable one this week.

I am one of those on Morikawa, too. I also played Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry and fancied an extra long bomb on Emiliano Grillo, all in the outright market.

I received some reinforcement on my selections from Bogdanovich when I asked him who he personally liked this week. “I like Morikawa, Fleetwood and Hatton but I don’t bet a lot on this tournament. Too much luck involved,” said the wise Las Vegas veteran. “See Watson-Cink (Turnburry 2009), Lawrie-Van De Veld (Carnoustie 1999), etc.”

Right here at Royal Troon in 2004, Todd Hamilton is another prime example. Looking at the diversity in the outright winner market as we have noted above, it goes hand-in-hand with the sage insight Bogdanovich offers – maybe more randomness exists in this championship more so than any other.

After all, a diverse portfolio often yields a steady return. Time will tell if we have chosen the proper seeds to sow.

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