Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler leads way (again) as favorite at Royal Troon

Another major, another week where the betting board starts with the name “Scheffler.”

The fourth and final major championship of the 2024 season presents Scottie Scheffler (+500) at the head of the class for the fourth consecutive major. The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon features the 2024 Masters champion as the outright betting favorite according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Making his fourth appearance at The Open, the Texan only has one top-10 payday, T8 in 2021 at Royal St George’s, on his ledger. The six-time winner in 2024, including at the Travelers Championship in his most recent start, leads the PGA TOUR in too many categories to list. Nobody has gained more strokes on the field, and no players have scored any better this season. Major championship golf has produced top-10 paydays from 11 of 17 weekends, including six of his last eight. The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking will be the man to beat this week.

This week is the 10th anniversary of Rory McIlroy (+800) winning his last major championship. Starting a new streak this week will require navigating 7,385 yards (par 71) of Royal Troon that will stretch almost 200 additional yards than the last edition, won by Henrik Stenson (+25000), in 2016. Taking three weeks off after being pipped at the wire at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, the four-time major champion returned to the Firth of Forth and The Renaissance Club with a top-10 last week. Posting four rounds in the 60s, he shared fourth place but did not apply any pressure on the weekend. Cashing in the top 10 in five of the last seven Open Championships, including T5 at Royal Troon in 2016, McIlroy has knocked off the rust and is ready to go.

Making his first Open appearance, Ludvig Åberg (+1200) is playing just his third major championship. Cashing second at the Masters behind Scheffler, he missed the cut at the PGA Championship before finishing T12 at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. Toss in a paycheck for solo eighth place at THE PLAYERS Championship and he has factored in three of the four biggest events of the season to date. The 54-hole leader last week in North Berwick, the 24-year-old posted 64-64-65 before stumbling home with 73 to share fourth in his return to links golf.

Picking up his second U.S. Open title in four years after defeating McIlroy at Pinehurst, Bryson DeChambeau (+1400) will look to join Jordan Spieth (+6600) from 2015 as the last player to win back-to-back major championships. Earlier this season, the California native was also the runner-up at the PGA Championship and tied for sixth at the Masters. Making his seventh appearance across the Atlantic, his T8 result at St. Andrews in 2022 is his only payday inside the top 30.

All three major champions from 2024 reside in the top five betting favorites this week at BetMGM. Xander Schauffele (+1400) added his name to the list of PGA Championship winners at Valhalla Golf Club in May. The world No. 3 joins DeChambeau as the only two players this season to cash inside the top 10 in all three major championships. A 2018 joint runner-up at Carnoustie, the Californian has made the cut in all six previous visits to the United Kingdom. Major championship golf has received his total focus as he has made 26 cuts from 29 attempts and has hit the top 10 in 14 appearances, plus racked up paydays of T25 or better in 22 chances.

Collin Morikawa (+1600) joined a minute list of winners on debut when he earned the Champion Golfer of the Year status at Royal St. George’s in 2021. A winner on debut at the PGA Championship the summer before, the Los Angeles native posted 265, a tournament record at St. George’s to win his second major title, but has not played the weekend in two subsequent appearances. Sitting No. 3 on the FedExCup points list heading into the final major of the season, he is the only player in the top five who has not won in 2024. After cashing T3 at the Masters and T4 at the PGA Championship, the two-time major champion hit the top 15 (T14) at the U.S. Open, his seventh top-10 result this season.

After missing the weekend in his first three tries, including at Royal Troon in 2016, Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) has been knocking on the door at The Open. The Englishman, who grew up on the links in Southport, has cashed T27 or better in the last six editions, including taking home top-10 money in three of the previous four battles on the links. Starting with the 2016 edition at Royal Troon, five of the last seven winners have been first-time major champions, and he fits that bill. After cashing T26 or better in the first three majors, including a share of third at the Masters, he should be in the mix again this week in conditions he prefers.

The 2024 majors for Jon Rahm (+2500) have been forgettable. Cashing T45 in defense of his 2023 Masters title, the Spaniard missed the cut at the PGA Championship and withdrew with a foot infection from the U.S. Open. While his overall record in major championships (two wins, eight top-five paydays from 31 events) is stellar, his recent outings are easily the least compelling of the players listed at the top of the BetMGM board. Course historians will highlight that he’s cashed T2, T3 and T11 in three of his last four starts at The Open Championship.

Defending champ Brian Harman (+6600) returns to the U.K. one year after his major breakthrough at Royal Liverpool. Robert MacIntyre (+2800) became the first Scotsman to win his national open since Colin Montgomerie in 1999. He will look to join Rory McIlroy (2014) as the last player to win a major the week after winning an event. And of course, there’s three-time Open winner Tiger Woods (+20000), who will make his first start since a missed cut at Pinehurst.

Note: The last three players in the field all earned spots with top-10 finishes last week: Aaron Rai (+6600), Richard Mansell (+30000), and Alex Noren (+8000).

Here's a look at other notable odds via BetMGM, including MacIntyre who will look to be the first player since 2013 to win both the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open in the same year:

• +2800: Robert MacIntyre, Tyrrell Hatton
• +3300: Viktor Hovland
• +4000: Cameron Smith (2022 winner), Shane Lowry (2019 winner), Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau
• +4500: Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim
• +5000: Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Hideki Matsuyama
• +6000: Matt Fitzpatrick, Min Woo Lee
• +6600: Jordan Spieth (2017 winner), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Wyndham Clark, Aaron Rai, Justin Thomas
• +8000: Corey Conners, Alex Noren
• +10000: Louis Oosthuizen (2010 winner), Akshay Bhatia, Davis Thompson, Max Homa, Nicolai Højgaard, Sam Burns, Sepp Straka

How The 152nd Open Championship works:

• A field of 158 players. With that many players, no alternates will be called unless the field drops below 156 players.
• 50 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings.
• After 36 holes, the field will be cut to the top 70 and ties.
• The purse of $17 million sees the winner pocket $3.1 million plus 750 FedExCup points.

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