Bolton: Set alarm clocks in search of betting value at Genesis Scottish Open

Every time the PGA TOUR leaves North America, our first order of business is to adjust for the time difference.

The Genesis Scottish Open is scheduled to begin at 7 a.m. local time on Thursday. That’s 2 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States, 11 p.m. Pacific Time on Wednesday and 8 p.m. on Wednesday in Hawaii. So, if you’ve ever said to yourself that you were going to stop waiting until Thursday morning to place your pre-tournament bets, you don’t have a choice this week!

One of the blessings of this tournament is the fact that about half of it consists of DP World Tour members, and the best of them. With a handful of notables from the PGA TOUR opting to rest ahead of The Open Championship, there’s so much opportunity to diversify your card with guys who play in Europe regularly and at a high level.

Reviewing only the outrights at BetMGM, the shortest among the subset of DP World Tour members is Tom McKibbin at +6600. He’s No. 15 in my Power Rankings for the reasons stated, but I’m not advising him to prevail. The native of Northern Ireland still is an attractive +240 for a Top 20, which I wholly endorse.

This is the message in the macro. Diversify your card with lower finishes among DP World Tour members. My Tap-ins below include several considerations.

Weather – Genesis Scottish Open

If the only message here was, “Good luck,” you’d understand. It’s Scotland and The Renaissance Club is hard against the Firth of Forth in North Berwick. Lo and behold, wind that wasn’t forecasted to be much of a bother when the Power Rankings published on Monday has emerged to flap the trousers at times. Of course it has. But if you guess when it will and won’t, expect to be wrong.

The plan of attack for golfers and bettors alike is to embrace it and even laugh when it wins a battle. Allow experience to be the tiebreaker while devoting your units.

Otherwise, classically Scottish weather will be the norm. Daytime highs might not touch 60 degrees as clouds will rule the sky.

Weather – ISCO Championship

With the residual impact of Hurricane Beryl having exited the region, the tournament is poised to be contested in ideal conditions. Wind will have abated by Thursday, sunshine will be abundant and temperatures will rise gradually into the mid-90s on the weekend.

It sets up for Jim Herman’s tournament record of 26-under 262 (in 2019) to be challenged, if not replaced.

Power Rankings wild card

Sahith Theegala (+400 = Top 10) … There isn’t enough space in the capsule beside the golfers in the Power Rankings to express how much analysis he deserves. But it’s not so much analysis as it is perspective. On talent alone, he belongs in every Power Rankings, but in this results-based business, he’s still on the fringe. The beauty of that is that he’s always potentially lucrative as a guy who pops more often than he fizzles. He missed the cut in his debut at The Renaissance Club last year, but there’s a learning curve to golf in these climes. He’ll get there. And because he’s among the best at solving puzzles faster than others, his kickback for this finish likely will be shorter next time. If you’re not feelin’ it, he’s still tasty at +188 for a Top 20.

Other notables

Davis Thompson (+200 = Top 20) … It’s easy to think that there will be a letdown immediately following his breakthrough victory on the PGA TOUR that also yielded entry into The Open Championship. This also is his debut at The Renaissance Club, but guys of his ilk don’t ease off the pedal. The win was a foregone conclusion and merely the next step in his trajectory. Now that he’s freed of checking that box, he can rely on what got him there.

Max Homa (+188 = Top 20) … He hasn’t impressed of late with only one top-30 finish in his last five (T22, Memorial), but two of those were in majors (in which his record still is a work in progress) and he was similarly scuffling ahead of last year’s T12 at The Renaissance Club. He also placed T16 in his debut here the year before that. So, while recent play would suggest that he should be longer for this finish, anything greater than even is a no-brainer for this horse for the course who loves the challenge.

Ryan Fox (+250 = Top 20) … Suffice it to say that he’s no longer considered to American fans as a guy who only hits the long ball, but that’s because he’s proven that he can hang on the PGA TOUR. In his first season with a card, he’s connected for three top 10s, all inside the last three months. He’s also fresh off a T17 at the BMW International Open. Currently 32nd on the PGA TOUR Strokes Gained: Putting and second on the PGA TOUR in averaged distance of putts converted for a round (81’8”), the latter of which could be a difference-maker given that the course average for The Renaissance Club was shortest (61’1”) of all tracks measured last season.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Tommy Fleetwood and Aaron Rai (+425 = Both to Finish Inside the Top 20)
• PARLAY: Ewen Ferguson, Victor Perez and Seamus Power (+1300 = All to Finish Inside the Top 40)
• PARLAY: Thomas Detry, Adam Scott and Davis Thompson (+280 = All to Make the Cut)
• Corey Conners (+138 = Top Canadian)
• Rasmus Højgaard (+320 = Top 20)
• Sungjae Im (+175 = Miss the Cut)
• Guido Migliozzi (+200 = Top 40)
• Keita Nakajima (+350 = Top Japanese)
• Matteo Manassero (+175 = Top Italian)
• Thorbjørn Olesen (+160 = Top 40)
• Marcel Siem (+333 = Top German)
• Connor Syme (+220 = Top 40)

Returning to competition – Genesis Scottish Open

Will Zalatoris … He made the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic but withdrew during the third round due to soreness in a hip. Because it was cited that the sensation was on his “good” side, logically it’d be his right hip because his left side was aching before he had the microdiscectomy early last year. Whatever the case, it already had been a quiet couple of months after a strong return to competition early this year, so it can’t be easy for him to trust much at the moment. He’s entirely speculative, so it’s understandable why he’s not one of the 25 options to Make or Miss the Cut.

Notable WDs – Genesis Scottish Open

Patrick Rodgers … Comfortably positioned at 49th in the FedExCup after cashing in the last three weeks, this decision ensures that he won’t qualify automatically for The Open Championship.

Beau Hossler … Like Rodgers, Hossler also is ineligible for The Open as an automatic qualifier but he’s 82nd in the FedExCup, so while his job is a virtual lock for 2025, he still has work to do to qualify for the Playoffs.

Notable WDs – ISCO Championship

C.T. Pan … As the tail of the tandem of qualifiers into The Open Championship with a T2 at the John Deere Classic, the opt-out is sensible. He now has a pair of podium finishes after starting the season on a medical extension, so he’s made it look easier than it usually is for golfers returning from injury and separated from competition.

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