Odds Outlook: Defending champ Rory McIlroy favored to repeat at Genesis Scottish Open

After taking three weeks off, Rory McIlroy (+700) returns to the Genesis Scottish Open to defend his 2023 title. Losing in a back-nine showdown at Pinehurst No. 2 at the U.S. Open Championship, the four-time major champion will tee it up at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, before his 10th anniversary of winning The Open Championship next week. Reliving one of the best shots of his career, a 2-iron to 11 feet with a made birdie putt to follow on No. 18, he birdied the final two holes to finish one shot better than runner-up (and 2024 RBC Canadian Open champion) Robert MacIntyre (+5000). The 35-year-old, last a winner at his happy hunting ground at the Quail Hollow Club, has cashed T15 or better in his previous six starts on the PGA TOUR.

Posting 15 top-25 results from 16 starts makes Xander Schauffele (+800) the clear second choice this week. The reigning PGA Championship winner will look to add his second Genesis Scottish Open championship and third top-10 result in three years. Fighting difficult conditions in the 2022 edition, the Californian won for the last time before his major championship victory in May at Valhalla. Following his first major championship, the 30-year-old has picked off T8 (the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday) and T7 (U.S. Open) plus sat 16-under after 54 holes at TPC River Highlands, another course he loves, before finishing T13.

The only missing part from 2024 for Collin Morikawa (+1400) is putting the trophy engraver to work on Sunday evening. The first major championship of the year saw him find the podium for the first time since his victory last fall. In the seven events following his T3 at Augusta National, the dynamic iron player has cashed T16 or better every weekend, including T4 at the PGA Championship and T14 at the U.S. Open. The 2021 Open Championship winner at Royal St. George’s, he posted the record (-15, 265) on the par-70 layout on the links of Kent.

The winner in Dubai in January, Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) will look to finally kick down the door in the fifth edition of the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. Posting 63 in Round 3 last year to sit just two shots off McIlroy’s 54-hole lead, the Englishman drifted to T6 after a final round 72. Battling tougher conditions in the 2022 event, he posted his final three rounds in the red and the lowest 36-hole total on the weekend for T4. Posting three top-10 finishes this season on the PGA TOUR, his last appearance was T3 at the Masters.

Ludvig Åberg (+1800) put to bed the idea of any lingering knee issues with a T5 at the Memorial followed by a T12 at the U.S. Open. A two-time runner-up on TOUR this season, the Swedish star will look to avenge a missed cut here last year. Superior off the tee and into the greens, Åberg currently sits as world No. 4 a week before the final major championship of the year. Sitting third in Total Driving and 22nd in GIR, he should be able to handle the three par 5s and six par 4s measuring over 464 yards. Next week, he will be making his Open Championship debut at Royal Troon.

Making his 12th start of the 2024 season, Viktor Hovland (+2200) hopes the links of Scotland provide the jump-start to July. The 2023 FedExCup champion has found the top 10 exactly once this season, a solo third at the PGA Championship in May. Rounds of 77-75 to close at the Memorial Tournament and 78-68 (MC) at the U.S. Open halted any momentum built at Valhalla. The final two rounds at TPC River Highlands the week after the U.S. Open (64-65) could be a springboard. Never finishing outside T13 in the last three Open Championships, he will look to improve on T25-MC from the previous two years.

One of the horses for courses at The Renaissance Club, Tom Kim (+2500) has posted a 14-under aggregate over the last two seasons and has cashed T6 and solo third. Over his eight rounds, six have posted in red figures, but he could not keep pace from the final group with McIlroy last summer. The freshly minted 22-year-old has been turning heads since T4 at the RBC Canadian Open and a playoff loss to his close friend Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers Championship. A disappointing missed cut the following week in Detroit (73-68) soured investors who were intently tracking his progress. Steady throughout the bag, his accuracy off the tee will help this week and most weeks.

Notes: Davis Thompson, the runaway record-setting winner last week at the John Deere Classic, has entered this week and is +6000. DP World Tour winner in Munich last week, Scotsman Ewen Ferguson, is in the field at +10000.

Here's a look at other notable odds via BetMGM, including 2021 Genesis Scottish Open champ Min Woo Lee:

• +2800: Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee
• +3300: Matt Fitzpatrick
• +3500: Justin Thomas
• +4000: Brian Harman, Corey Conners
• +4500: Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im
• +5000: Aaron Rai (2020 winner), Robert MacIntyre, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala
• +5500: Byeong Hun An, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth
• +6000: Davis Thompson
• +6600: Alex Noren, Billy Horschel, Nicolai Hojgaard, Adam Scott, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Denny McCarthy, Si Woo Kim, Tom Hoge
• +8000: Bernd Wiesberger (2019 winner), Ryan Fox, Thomas Detry, Tom McKibbin, Harris English, Keith Mitchell, Matthieu Pavon, Will Zalatoris, Erik van Rooyen
• +10000: Rasmus Højgaard, Adam Hadwin, Ewen Ferguson, Sebastian Soderberg

How the Genesis Scottish Open works:

• A field of 156 players.
• The Official World Golf Ranking: 33 of the top 50 players and six of the top seven.
• After 36 holes, the field will be cut to the top 65 and ties.
• The purse of $9 million sees the winner pocket $1.58 million plus 500 FedExCup points.
• If not already qualified, the top three finishers will qualify for The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon.

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