Prop Farm: Taylor Pendrith, Michael Thorbjornsen seeing action for Rocket Mortgage Classic

After his surprisingly mediocre performance at the U.S. Open Championship, many bettors left the bumper crop that was Scottie Scheffler for dead. We wrote here in this column that the crop may have finally dried up after being a winner five times previously. Personally, I had a funny feeling he’d yield fruit once again after everyone doubted him, and sure enough, he produced a bountiful harvest after bet farmers went searching for something else, winning his sixth tournament in his last 10 starts last week at TPC River Highlands. I hate to bring it up, but I also noted in last week’s column that I was on Tom Kim (+4000) at the Travelers Championship, the man Scheffler beat last Sunday on the first playoff hole. Ugh.

Over the course of this historic run by Scheffler, we have followed the betting patterns each week on the world’s No. 1 player. Our friend Thomas Gable, Director of Race and Sports at The Borgata in New Jersey, has reported a number of times that they keep betting him (Scheffler) to win, no matter the price. I had to assume that this guy has become a huge thorn in the sportsbook’s side.

“It hasn’t been as bad as you think for us. His odds have been so short that it takes a lot of money to really generate any significant liability on him,” said Gable.

“Scottie has been good for us,” said Hall of Fame Las Vegas Bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich. “It seems most golf bettors have thrown out the lowest price and have been looking for value further down the board.”

I have equated Scheffler, for bettors, to a historic boxer who never lost as a professional. Bogdanovich says Scheffler has been that way for the books too, saying "he’s been like Floyd Mayweather, good for the book’s bottom line.”

Similar sentiments for Gable at The Borgata. “I would say overall, while there have been times in those six wins where we have booked a small loss to him, we have been pretty successful in all of his tournaments as a whole," he said.

The moral of the story: No matter how plentiful your farm, it’s hard to beat the books.

Scheffler, among others, has taken this week off as we head to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Last week's near miss, Kim (+1200), has become this week’s favorite.

Senior data analyst at BetMGM Drew O’Dell reports that Kim is responsible for their highest ticket count (13.8%), highest handle (13.7%) and is their second largest liability. He is second only to Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia, a two-time winner on TOUR, already took fifth at last week’s Signature Event in Connecticut.

“Bhatia obviously is coming off a strong showing last weekend and seems to be gaining some support from recreational bettors,” said Gable.

Highly regarded Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman is seeing recreational support for Kim too, as well as Nicolai Højgaard.

“We’ve seen sharp play on Taylor Pendrith and Davis Thompson,” added Sherman.

Bogdanovich mentioned that action has been much lighter in the outright winner market this week. “Not a real surprise, given we are coming off of two really big tournaments.” he said. Indeed. Two major championships, three Signature Events and a couple of long-standing classics in the RBC Canadian Open and the Charles Schwab Challenge. Not just two, but It has been quite the run for seven weeks straight now. Bogdanovich did go on to point out though, “Stephan Jaeger, Ryan Fox and Michael Thorbjornsen are getting the most action in the outright market.”

Thorbjornsen, from Stanford University, who has played in a handful of TOUR events the past few seasons, made his 2024 debut last week. He arrives off a decorated amateur career and ended up finishing 39th last week at the Travelers Championship. He played here in Detroit in 2022 and missed the cut.

I am on Jaeger (+2800) this week in the outright market, as well as Thompson (+3300), Ben Griffin (+5000) and Jacob Bridgeman (+12500).

One of the more popular results with golf fans last summer was Rickie Fowler finding the winner’s circle for the first time in over four years, beating Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa in a playoff at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Gable has seen some activity looking for a repeat. “Fowler, who is trying to repeat as champion here, is currently at +4000 and has attracted some decent action, but it has all been recreational," he said.

Gable piggy-backed on what Bogdanovich had to say earlier about the action being a bit lighter this week, noting that he has not seen anything noteworthy, especially from respected money, in either the head-to-head matchup or First Round Leader markets.

With Scheffler not in the field this week, will that be a bad thing for the books, and maybe a blessing for bettors, hoping to beat him?

"Hope is like air if not built on a fertile ground," Michael Bassey said. "A ground that requires attention and nurturing. You cannot stop working on that ground even if the hope is sprouting higher into the sky."

May your work on the Motor City betting farm produce some winners this week in Detroit.