Bolton: Bright young talent set to challenge odds at Rocket Mortgage Classic

‘Tis the season for shiny, new toys!

It’s an annual rite of passage for the summer opens to invite and promote the youngest and brightest talent. This year’s schedule slots this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic at the top of order, and it delivers.

The subset of the field of 156 at Detroit Golf Club consists of five fresh faces, each of whom is a standout. There are, count ’em, three of the top-ranked amateurs in the world. So, since each has everything to gain and nothing to lose, consider devoting shares where desired. The bonus is that you’ll have applied emotion on top of potential kickbacks, and that can pay forward the next time each appears.

Michael Thorbjornsen is the newest member of the PGA TOUR via the top spot in PGA TOUR University. With a T39 in his professional debut at the Travelers Championship, he’s 200th in the FedExCup. Neal Shipley was low amateur at both the Masters (T53) and the U.S. Open (T26) while finishing his collegiate career at Ohio State. He’s now fresh off his pro debut on the PGA TOUR Americas in British Columbia where he placed T9.

Meanwhile, Jackson Koivun (second in the World Amateur Golf Ranking), Ben James (fourth) and Luke Clanton (fifth) all are in position to become household names before the end of this decade.

Koivun just swept all of the awards after his freshman season at Auburn and then added a 52nd-place finish at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, for which he added a point to reach 16 in PGA TOUR University Accelerated. James (8 points) just wrapped his sophomore year at Virginia, as did Clanton (3 points) at Florida State.

Now that you’re through the crash course, here’s a one-stop shop of BetMGM odds for realistic expectations in Detroit:

Top 20

• +250: Thorbjornsen
• +300: Clanton
• +450: Koivun
• +500: Shipley
• +700: James

Top 40

• +105: Thorbjornsen
• +120: Clanton
• +160: Koivun
• +170: Shipley
• +225: James

Thorbjornsen’s lines already are wild, but the jury still is out concerning his long-term recovery from a stress fracture in his back and surgery on his right ankle last year. I reviewed his trajectory in length during the week of the RBC Canadian Open and advised patience during what’s been a lot in his life and now his career. It’s also relevant to point out that the Travelers was a home game where he finished fourth two years ago, so we could use some objective data before assigning hope.

So, because Shipley has the kind of momentum that we prefer and now with stakes, he’s the most attractive in the Top 20 market. And because Koivun is having the time of his life – Auburn won the national championship, by the way – he’s the pick among the Top 40s.

Weather: Mixed bag of conditions awaits in Detroit

The field of 156 couldn’t ask for better conditions during the first two rounds. It’ll be the kind of comfort that helps convey why summers in Michigan are the best, but it won’t last with something significant brewing on Saturday. A front will push through and introduce rain and thunderstorms that would delay play. Fortunately, these are the longest days of the year in terms of daylight and, with a glorious Sunday essentially guaranteed, the tournament is scheduled to finish on time.

There is no expectation that either side of the draw will benefit, so have at it with your favorites in DFS.

Power Rankings wild card

Nate Lashley (+130 = Top 40): Not the prototypical wild card, but he’s forever the inaugural champion of the tournament in 2019. Still, it doesn’t help that none of the notables omitted from the Power Rankings and Sleepers are deserving of the same finish, lest the fact that they’re all shorter, anyway. So, the case for the veteran will suffice. Five of his six paydays in 2024 are top 40s, and he’s still balanced throughout his bag. His problem is that he’s a slow starter, but if he makes the cut, he can tap into the feels of ranking T14 in third-round scoring and seventh in final-round scoring.

Returning to competition

Doug Ghim (+120 = Top 40): The early-season contributor has quieted in the last three months, but he’s still recorded a pair of top 40s in his last five starts. His most recent resulted in a mid-tournament withdrawal at the RBC Canadian Open, but it was due to an illness and nothing affecting his swing. He’s 2-for-4 at Detroit Golf Club with a pair of top 35s. He’s also relentless from tee to green and T9 in par-5 scoring.

Alex Smalley (+170 = Top 40): With only five paydays in 17 starts this year, four of which going for a top 25, he’s the definition of speculative. He’s also rested for a month since an illness bounced him from the Charles Schwab Challenge after just one round. Through it all, he’s remained proficient from tee to green, so the angle here is not rust but the injection of a recharge on a stage where he can shine.

Taylor Montgomery: Officially leading the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting but he hasn’t competed since withdrawing after an opening 80 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson on May 2. It was his second mid-tournament WD in three starts, neither for which an explanation was released, and he’s been crickets on social. It’s outstanding that he’s back and poised to contribute again, but use this week for observation only.

Carl Yuan: Called it quits after opening the RBC Canadian Open with a 6-over 76 due to an unspecified injury. He had battled through a sore neck in mid-February, but details of this latest malady haven’t surfaced. At 117th in the FedExCup, he’s making the most of his late opportunity for fully exempt status, but he’s cashed just twice in his last eight, neither for a top 55, so beware jumping in solely due to a T14 in his debut at Detroit Golf Club last year.

Tim Wilkinson: Assuming he sticks with the commitment, it’ll be his first appearance in 37 months on the PGA TOUR, on which he has seven starts remaining on a medical extension. Multiple injuries and surgeries sidelined the lefty from New Zealand until he returned to his national open about four months ago. Arrives for his second try at Detroit Golf Club having after consecutive starts on the Korn Ferry Tour, the latter of which yielded a payday (70th). So, the 45-year-old basically has a chip and a chair to see what happens down the stretch. At the very best, limit him to a spot start as a throw-in in DFS.

Notable WDs

Philip Knowles: This triples his early withdrawals as compared to PGA TOUR starts, 3-1, and leaves him on 21 via a medical extension. The holdover rookie has shown flashes on the Korn Ferry Tour this year, but he’s yet to gain any traction overall. Depending on how he manages his schedule through the FedExCup Fall, he could be a penny stock in salary leagues in 2025 because of the available playing time.

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