Bolton: Finding model that best fits TPC River Highlands

As you know, I’m not much of a model guy. It’s not that I don’t see their value as a tool for direction, but I’ve followed the PGA TOUR closely enough for a long time to know that they also can lead quickly to paralysis by analysis if they’re not digested in doses.

Still, we’ve toyed with models over the years at different times for different reasons, and the construct of the Travelers Championship and its timing present an opportune to play with a simple equation. More on that in a moment.

Another thing you know about me is that I’ll espouse archetypes based on the variables of the week. For example, on unfamiliar greens or smaller targets, ball-strikers set up as having an edge. TPC River Highlands is on the other side of the spectrum in that it’s well-known and the greens aren’t comparably small for a short course. On average, they are 5,000 square feet for the stock par 70 that tips at 6,835 yards. The shorter the course, the shorter the irons wielded on approach, thus the larger the targets relative to the weapon.

This setup favors the tried-and-true formula of hitting greens in regulation and converting those putts for par breakers. Accept but ignore the reality of a hot putter coming from nowhere to contend and focus on the meat of the matter.

When adding the individual ranks for every golfer in the field of the Travelers and ranking those sums, they reveal the most potent combination of GIR plus putting: birdies-or-better. Because Scottie Scheffler leads the PGA TOUR in both categories – 72.98% in GIR; 36.75% in putting: birdies-or-better – his sum is 2. You don’t need that evidence to prove why he deserved of the shortest odds to win (+400) at BetMGM, so let’s move on to a more favorable value.

Byeong Hun An slots 11th and fifth in the stats, respectively, so his sum is 16. That’s the second-lowest in the field, so, and suddenly, it just got interesting. He’s +6600 to win, which is something he’s never done on the PGA TOUR, but if he fulfills his profile as a sharpshooter and a scorer, he’s more likely to break through in a week like this one.

Other select entrants for whom this model supports something special in the vacuum:

• Tom Hoge (+10000)… 37th (GIR) + 10th (putting: birdies-or-better) = fourth-lowest (in the field)
• Sahith Theegala (+3300) … 28th + 32nd = sixth-lowest
• Viktor Hovland (+2000) … 52nd + 18th = seventh-lowest
• Corey Conners (+3300) … 6th + 77th = ninth-lowest
• Jordan Spieth (+5500) … 72nd + 27th = 12th-lowest

Guys who are more proficient in GIR usually need an above-average performance with the putter to do damage, so the more impactful combination favors scorers who pay off the opportunities, but with no cut, everyone can be aggressive and free-wheel it.

Yes, many other factors always contribute to the projections and they must be respected. It’s why a model is but one tool. At the same time, simplifying a set-spike like this can be a confidence builder for guys who know that they can find their games at TPC River Highlands. With the last two weeks beating up on many of them, it’s also a tremendous week for you to fill your card with more from the model than your usual process.

Weather

Because of the reduced field of 71, all golfers are going off the first hole. After Chris Gotterup leads off as a single in the opening round at 8:05 a.m. ET, the remainder will train in twosomes until Billy Horschel and Stephan Jaeger are last to tee off at 11:10 a.m. While the size of the field doesn’t present heavy lifting in completing the tournament in four days as scheduled, Mother Nature likely will disrupt the action.

Thursday will be the hottest and unaffected. The potential for inclement weather arrives on Friday and its timing is TBD. The air will cool a bit as the energy passes until Sunday when 90 degrees is back in play but with some wind.

So, if you wanted to hedge against your plays getting interrupted, consider the late-early half as the pool. Yet, with no cut and with more receptive turf if rain falls on Friday, there’s merit to blending your favorites in the opposite side of the draw. DFS sharks will stack because that’s what they do, but there’s unlikely to be a benefit to it.

Power Rankings Wild Card

Justin Thomas (+120 = Top 20) … It wasn’t that long ago that you wouldn’t hesitate to grab this and multiply the units for the plus value, and yet, it’s not like he’s that far removed from the impact that elicits curiosity over it now. It was just a month ago when he finished T8 at scorable Valhalla Golf Club for the PGA Championship, his fourth top 10 and sixth top 20 of 2024. He’s also hung up a pair of top 20s at TPC River Highlands in eight appearances, the latter of which just a year ago when he was scuffling much worse than he is upon arrival this week. The beauty is that it’s a limited field and his firepower is promised four rounds.

Other notables

Thomas Detry (+500 = Top 10) … The PGA TOUR sophomore has proven to be a quick study all season and sits 22nd in the FedExCup. He’s scattered four top 10s and another three top 20s, including a T14 at the U.S. Open where he led the field in putting: birdies-or-better. With four rounds at TPC River Highlands, where he’s in his second appearance, he can keep it floored throughout and allow his phenomenal putting do the work.

Sepp Straka (+275 = Top 10) … If you limit your sample size of results to only the last three Signature Events, he’s gone T5-T8-T5, but he’s also worked in a T16 at THE PLAYERS Championship, a T16 at the Masters and a T5 at the Charles Schwab Challenge across the same period of time. A cursory review of his analytics reveal the kind of extreme results that have defined the majority of his career, but there’s easily enough to warrant this reach on that data alone, too. Oh, and he also locked up a T10 here in 2021.

Adam Scott (+200 = Top 20) … In the Aussie we trust. He’s recorded consecutive top 20s in this tournament going back to a T13 in 2021. While it’d have paid off this bet, last year’s T19 is misleading in that he opened with 62 and sat T4 after three rounds. He’s also less than a month removed from a T12 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, his sixth top 20 worldwide this year.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Byeong Hun An (+175 = Top 20)
• Sungjae Im (+275 = Top Korean)
• Stephan Jaeger (+110 = Top 30)
• Taylor Pendrith (+240 = Top 20)
• Andrew Putnam (+160 = Top 30)

Notable WDs

Rory McIlroy … The gutted runner-up at the U.S. Open has decided to regroup and rest until his title defense at the Genesis Scottish Open. He’s a two-time PGA TOUR winner this season, including the Wells Fargo Championship, which was the sixth Signature Event.