Bolton: Tee-to-green play paramount at always challenging Muirfield Village

Time always tells, but it often needs the opportunity to be heard outside a familiar construct.

That vague opening applies to the position of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. It’s the 49th edition of the event but it’s the first time that it’s contested on the week before the U.S. Open. Its customary slot is two weeks prior, but it agreed to move this year as a favor to the PGA TOUR.

In his annual press conference with the media on Tuesday, host Jack Nicklaus cited numerous reasons why he and tournament organizers prefer what’s essentially the midpoint between the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. The most applicable as it concerns the field is that he didn’t like to play in the week before a major.

Of course, the Memorial is a Signature Event and a legacy invitational that rewards beefier benefits, so it’s not surprising that all qualifiers are committed. (Well, all but one. The most recent PGA TOUR winner, Robert MacIntyre, opted out. More on him below in Notable WDs.) But even if it weren’t the case, many touring professionals like to either stay loose or get warm in advance of a major. Early scouting trips are more popular and, frankly, easier than they were when Nicklaus was amassing his legendary career, so the current generation has grown to accept if not rely on it. Consider that the Genesis Scottish Open is a newer method to accommodate U.S.-based talent that’s eligible for The Open Championship that follows immediately thereafter. It’s a scheduled fortnight abroad.

So, the advice when reviewing betting boards isn’t to be wary, it’s to go hard.

While Nicklaus has his valid reasons for scheduling, Muirfield Village is a not-so-secret weapon. Its level of difficulty is ideal for the same experience in most U.S. Opens, and it rewards guys who capitalize on the value of par. While counterintuitive, they can find their games on this track. Small greens help neutralize terrific putters, so the leaderboard is always bursting with those who score best from tee to green. And now, instead of an off-week, it can be a litmus test for the mindset to grind if not a springboard into what lies ahead at Pinehurst No. 2.

How this unprecedented batting order plays out among contenders will be as fascinating as their reaction. How it hits is as undetermined as how the 50th edition lines up next year. Grab some popcorn and a milkshake.

Weather

After a second straight week during which the projection you read in this space (for the RBC Canadian Open) hit the bull’s eye, this week’s demands an asterisk.

All 73 golfers at Muirfield Village will be going off the first hole, so the traditional early-late draw off split tees is on hiatus until the 156-man U.S. Open. That said, there could be enough troublesome wind in the afternoon during both of the first two rounds to all but guarantee that the latest starters will post higher scores. From that standpoint, focus on dew sweepers on Thursday if you dabble in the First-Round Leader market.

Zooming out, overall scoring should be level across the first two rounds, but it’s a golden chance for DFSers to stack what otherwise would be dubbed the early-late wave. Hot starts in opening rounds are promised. You want the guys with the pressure off when the winds are blowing on Friday afternoon. Yet, with a favorable 36-hole cut of low 50-plus ties and all within 10 strokes of the lead, your odds of sending the entire stack into the weekend are tantalizing.

Power Rankings wild card

Jordan Spieth (+120 = Top 20) … It was tempting not to rise into a Top 10 (at +275) but plus value for another 10 spots on the leaderboard is acceptable. His form is uninspiring but Muirfield Village feeds directly into his strengths. With his added muscle off the tee in recent years, he can unleash drivers and not worry much. And because the targets are smaller than average and always among the toughest to land in regulation, his short game plays way up. Since the renovation, he’s gone T18-T18-T5, but he has a total of seven top 20s in his last 10 tries, so it’d have been surprising if he didn’t pile on. If you’re feeling frisky, he’s +5000 to win. I wouldn’t mention it if I didn’t have extended thoughts about that possibility.

Other notables

Sam Burns (+125 = Top 20) … Same bet and confidence as last week’s (when he was the Wild Card). He paid it off with a T10 while leading the field in par-5 scoring. Hamilton Golf & Country Club is a stock par 70, so he’ll have twice the opportunity to score on the set at Muirfield Village, a stock par 72. Currently sixth on TOUR in par-5 scoring and paced last year’s Memorial in it en route to a T16.

Tom Kim (+130 = Top 20) … After slotting No. 11 in last week’s Power Rankings, he delivered a T4 on cue. The support was easy in the absence of a top-15 finish for the simple reason that his class already is permanent despite the fact that he doesn’t turn 22 years old until June 21. We’ve seen him rip off consecutive top 10s before but retreat into this market that still yields plus value. There’s no faking it around Muirfield Village where he missed the cut in his debut last year. Give him more time and lower your expectations.

Billy Horschel (+150 = Top 20) … For a long time, he’s been a poster boy for the harder the better, so Muirfield Village naturally makes sense as a spot where he’d thrive, and he has. Prevailed here just two years ago and has five top 15s in 10 appearances. It’s also been some time since he shed the label as a streaky performer in favor of extended success in his prime, so to get nice value in this market knowing that he has a victory among five top 20s in his last nine individual competitions is well-timed. And lest we overlook that he’s still on the short list of best among his generation without a victory in a major, so having just witnessed Xander Schauffele shed the monkey, the spotlight on Horschel just got brighter.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Keegan Bradley (+138 = Top 20)
• Corey Conners (+175 = Top Canadian)
• Viktor Hovland (+140 = Top Scandinavian)
• Sungjae Im (+350 = Top Asian)
• Taylor Pendrith (+160 = Top 30)
• Justin Rose (+350 = Top English)
• Davis Thompson (+300 = Top 20)
• Cameron Young (+200 = Miss the Cut)

Returning to competition

Adam Schenk … After humming along with four top 20s in six starts, he started to scuffle and ultimately succumbed to a sore back after opening the Charles Schwab Challenge with a 75. His T7 at the Memorial last year piggybacked a runner-up finish at Colonial, so a question mark has replaced momentum across the same stretch.

Will Gordon … Committed to the Korn Ferry Tour’s BMW Charity Pro-Am presented by TD SYNNEX. Assuming he can give it a go, it’ll be his first live action since the WM Phoenix Open. He withdrew early from the Mexico Open at Vidanta and didn’t try THE PLAYERS Championship despite his exemption. Nothing has surfaced to explain the time away and he’s been a ghost on social media, but this is an outstanding update for long-term investors.

Notable WDS

Robert MacIntyre … The timing of his emotional breakthrough victory at the RBC Canadian Open was the only wrinkle in the story, for it means that he’ll sit out the Memorial in favor of the celebration and community of loved ones. The lefty is scheduled to return to competition at next week’s U.S. Open and he’s now exempt into the Travelers Championship the week after that, so he’ll be back at it in no time, albeit most likely without his father as his caddie.

Membership notes

Suffice it to say that the space made in the PGA TOUR membership ranks for DP World Tour members this season is paying off.

On Sunday in Canada, Robert MacIntyre joined Matthieu Pavon (Farmers Insurance Open) as winners now fully exempt through 2026, while five others currently slot 80th-124th in the FedExCup. The only two outside that range are Thorbjørn Olesen (146th) and Alexander Björk (149th).

While some paths appear similar, each has navigated his own based on a variety of influences. And while many decisions can be made on a weekly basis, we’re entering a stretch when longer-range planning is required. That, in turn, can influence fantasy considerations as the finish line climbs over the horizon.

Among this subset, only MacIntyre, Pavon and Victor Perez qualified for the Memorial and the Travelers Championship on June 20-23. The same trio also is eligible for next week’s U.S. Open where Ryan Fox also is exempt. Save sponsor exemptions into the Travelers, that’s it.

With three consecutive weeks of inaction on the PGA TOUR for the others, their home circuit figures to tug a bit. In fact, Björk and Jorge Campillo aren’t waiting. Both are committed to this week’s Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed which is held in Björk’s homeland of Sweden and in which he finished T9 last year. Don’t be surprised if more among the brethren follow sooner than later.

With the Genesis Scottish Open on July 11-14 co-sanctioned by both tours and because all of the DP World Tour members in question already are exempt into The Open Championship the following week, it’d make sense to get a head start on that side of the Atlantic Ocean, acclimate and simplify the process for a while.

The checkpoint to qualify for the Olympics falls at the conclusion of the U.S. Open, so that’s yet another force in play.

Bottom line, you won’t notice a shift in devotion to the PGA TOUR for some, but brace yourself for one or two to scatter. If any doesn’t eventually retain position inside the top 125 of the FedExCup, there’s always the chance to do it all over again as one of this year’s 10 via the Race to Dubai. Olesen for one currently is 13th for 2025 eligibility.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.