Bolton: Why you should look past potential first-time winners at Colonial

Because it’s at the top of a list that must be respected, it’s at the top of mine when I write the Power Rankings for the Charles Schwab Challenge every year, and this year’s version was no exception.

“It” is the fact that, of all tournaments on the PGA TOUR schedule, the Charles Schwab owns the longest drought without a first-time winner. Even The Open Championship has a more recent breakthrough winner with Ben Curtis in 2003.

As noted in the Power Rankings – again – Sergio Garcia remains the most recent player (2001) to get his first TOUR win at Colonial Country Club. He’s also the last to prevail in his first appearance in the tournament.

So, although you can’t do anything about outright bets already made this week, if you believe in the cosmic forces of these trends, think about them if you dabble in live odds. If you are investing in a guy without a TOUR title on his résumé to win, you are betting that a trend older than a significant portion of the most recent college graduates will end. Do yourself a favor and eliminate that subset of the field from your focus.

Weather

Since Monday’s Power Rankings, the forecast hasn’t changed much, although multiple models are positioning Sunday’s high temperature a bit higher and nearer triple digits. So, the value of this weekly revisit is the expectation of the winds during the first two rounds.

We always hold our breath when it concerns pushing too many chips in based on wind alone, but the trend is favoring the early-late draw. Of course, this never means that your picks in that half of the tee sheet will follow through, but the variance of that edge could make enough of a difference.

Power Rankings wild card

Taylor Moore (+220 = Top 20) … There are certain guys who seem to glide under the radar all the while authoring consistently strong seasons. He’s one of them if not this year’s poster boy. He’s been a regular in Sleepers for having cashed in all 13 individual competitions this season. He’s connected for a top 20 in four of his last seven, including a T12 at the PGA Championship where he was one of seven with four rounds in the 60s at Valhalla Golf Club. Reliable, taut ball-striking puts him in position more often than his peers, so a continuation of the norm is a fair expectation in his third look at Colonial.

Other notables

Keegan Bradley (+200 = Top 20) … The 37-year-old is extending what surely is a coincidental trend of appearing at Colonial only during leap years. After missing the cut in 2016, he finished T32 with four red numbers in 2020. Like Taylor Moore above, Bradley also signed for four sub-70 rounds at Valhalla. He led the field in total driving and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, so he was in tune with his calling card. It was his third top 25 in four starts.

Keith Mitchell (+250 = Top 20) … If you were to look only at his tee-to-green metrics, you’d wonder why he’s not contending more often. He’s inside the top 10 on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. And while he’s also ninth in adjusted scoring, the 32-year-old has but two top 10s in 2024. But he also has another five top 20s and he hasn’t gone consecutive starts without at least one for three-and-a-half months, thus this attention after his missed cut at the PGA Championship. And get a load of that value!

Ryan Palmer (+333 = Top 40) … I don’t care that he’s 47 and hasn’t had a top 40 on his own ball in over six months. All that matters is that the Colonial member forever is invested in the club and this tournament, but it doesn’t hurt that he recorded a top 40 in three of the last five editions.

Tom Hoge … Note the absence of a bet beside his name, but even BetMGM omits him from the 25 offerings to Make/Miss the Cut. That seems strange only with recency bias applied. He’s been feasting throughout 2024. However, he’s just 4-for-7 at Colonial and with no better than a T40 (2019) in any of the last six editions. He was good for most of that stretch and the sample size is too great to respect anomalies like falling into the wrong side of the draw due to wind or a mini-slump. He’s also just +188 for a Top 20, so shop elsewhere.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Keegan Bradley, Thomas Detry and Austin Eckroat (+170 = All to Make the Cut)
• Nico Echavarria (+225 = Top 40)
• Max Greyserman (+200 = Top 40)
• Sungjae Im (+350 = Top Asian)
• Zach Johnson (+200 = Top 40)
• Min Woo Lee (+170 = Top Australasian)
• Justin Lower (+150 = Top 40)
• Webb Simpson (+140 = Top 40)

Notable WDs

Viktor Hovland … Many touring professionals who are scuffling talk about being “close,” but the great ones are never that far off. However the 26-year-old is classified when his career sunset is within view is a long way away, but his solo third at the PGA Championship never should be forgotten after he was seemingly lost. That said, he projected for it and fulfilled my endorsement for a top five in Sleepers for the major. He’s now poised for two weeks off before his title defense at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday.

Stephan Jaeger … Although the recent first-time winner at the Texas Children’s Houston Open has been a force more often than not, Colonial has not been friendly since he returned to the PGA TOUR with gusto in 2022, so all investors are pleased that they won’t be tempted to revisit the well.

Nick Dunlap … This is the PGA TOUR rookie’s first early withdrawal since he sat out the Farmers Insurance Open immediately after breaking through for victory as an amateur at The American Express four months ago. He’s done OK since in trading four missed cuts with seven paydays, two of which top 25s. So, he’s holding his own since cannonballing into the deep end of the pool.

Membership notes

With a robust array of classifications for tournaments this season now including Signature Events, it can be easy to forget that a good ol’ invitational like the Charles Schwab Challenge hasn’t changed. This means that the field is closed. There isn’t an open qualifier, so top 10s since the last open, which was the Myrtle Beach Classic, do not gain entry until the next open, which is next week’s RBC Canadian Open. It’s why none of the golfers who’d otherwise crash the field of 132 at Colonial via a top-10 exemption are in on one. For example, PGA TOUR rookie Jorge Campillo (T4, Myrtle Beach) has a tee at Colonial this week via his position in the FedExCup (121st) through Myrtle Beach (and the concurrently contested Wells Fargo Championship). He was second alternate at the commitment deadline but gained entry with the early withdrawals above. This means that non-member Alistair Docherty (T2 at Myrtle Beach), Ryan McCormick (T4; 156th in the FedExCup) and Patton Kizzire (T10; 133rd) can use their top-10 exemptions next week in Canada.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.