Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler a massive betting favorite at Colonial

The final Texas-based examination of the 2024 PGA TOUR season happens this week at the historic Hogan’s Alley at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. Played for the 78th time, the Charles Schwab Challenge is the longest-serving PGA TOUR event hosted at the same location.

The week after a major championship provides a field of 132 players highlighted by Scottie Scheffler (+275) who starts the week as a massive betting favorite. The Dallas resident, who finished T8 after a tumultuous week at the PGA Championship, will look to add to his season-leading victory count (four). His performance last week, given the circumstances, added another layer to his already legendary status. Pre-tournament odds of less than +300 join him in the company of legend Tiger Woods.

A win on the hallowed grounds of Colonial would come in the first edition after Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner’s 2023 restoration of the John Bredemus-Perry Maxwell original to its golden era. Hopefully, the only distractions this week for Scheffler will be returning to his normal routine on and off the course. Knocked out in a playoff two years ago by his best friend Sam Burns (not entered this week), he cashed T3 in 2023, missing extra holes by a shot.

Sitting as second choice at the BetMGM Sportsbook, Collin Morikawa (+1400) returns to Colonial for the fifth consecutive season. The magic has returned to his game after reuniting with his swing coach before the Valero Texas Open the week before the Masters. Cashing T3 at Augusta National and playing from the final group on Sunday at the PGA Championship before cashing T4, the results speak for themselves. Currently on a streak of T16 or better on his own ball, his ball-striking has returned to top form, a necessity this week at Colonial. Putting familiar contoured greens should also help extend his confidence, even if they have been resurfaced with brand-new 007XL Bentgrass.

Max Homa (+2000) has struggled this year on tracks with smaller greens. Thriving in the bigger ballparks, the Californian has posted quiet paydays of T66 at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am, T64 at TPC Sawgrass, and T55 at Harbour Town on the less expansive greens used on TOUR. Making his sixth visit to Colonial, he will look to improve on a T9 payday from last season, his best of the bunch, on greens averaging 5,000 square feet. Sitting at 106 in GIR, only two of the last 10 winners did not finish the week in the top 10 in this category.

Jordan Spieth (+2200) is the only native Texan to win this event this century. The 2016 champion is the all-time money winner and has posted eight top-10 results from the 10 weekends he has made the cut. The three-time runner-up is more than comfortable just miles from his Dallas home and will have plenty in the gallery supporting him. The 30-year-old last found the top 10 this season at TPC San Antonio the week before missing the cut at the Masters. In his last five events on TOUR since Valero, he has produced just one top-30 result, T29 at the Wells Fargo Championship. A well-documented wrist issue has been the fulcrum for the inconsistent results.

Tony Finau (+2500) will be now in Fort Worth a week after picking up T18 at the PGA Championship. Just missing out on defending his title in Houston (T2) at the end of March, another Texas-sized ball-striking challenge awaits at Colonial. Missing just one cut during the 2024 season (Valspar), the Utah native has only missed the weekend once in Fort Worth (70-72, 2023) in nine seasons. Missing the event only once (2018) in the last decade suggests he enjoys this track and event. Cashing four times in the top 23 over the last five editions, including second (2019) and T4 (2022) is hard to ignore.

Min Woo Lee (+3500) is the only other player under +4000 for the week at the BetMGM.com sportsbook. Playing the 7,289-yard, par-70 track for the third consecutive season, the Australian has made one cut (T40) from two previous attempts. The runner-up at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches in early March rambles into Fort Worth after collecting T22 at the Masters, T24 up the road in McKinney, Texas, at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and T26 last week at the PGA Championship. An absolute smoke show off the tee, second in Total Driving, his combination of power and precision stands out. Dialing in the irons, currently No. 136 in SG: Approach, will have to match the driver.

After outlasting Adam Schenk in a memorable playoff last year, Emiliano Grillo (+15000) returns to defend his title after a missed cut last week at Valhalla.

Here's a look at some of the other notable odds this week via BetMGM, including a quartet of past champions at Colonial:

• +4000: Brian Harman, Harris English, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im
• +4500: Sepp Straka
• +5000: Adam Scott (2014 winner), Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Denny McCarthy, Keegan Bradley, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim
• +5500: Justin Rose (2018 winner), Billy Horschel
• +6000: Austin Eckroat
• +6600: Daniel Berger (2020 winner), Chris Kirk (2015 winner) Akshay Bhatia, Aaron Rai, Keith Mitchell, Lucas Glover, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Moore, Adam Schenk
• +8000: Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, Davis Thompson, J.T. Poston, Patrick Rodgers, Rickie Fowler, Robert MacIntyre, Ryo Hisatsune
• +10000: Beau Hossler, Brendon Todd, Cam Davis, Chris Gotterup, Greyson Sigg, Kevin Yu, Lee Hodges, Mark Hubbard, Nicolai Højgaard, Ryan Fox

How the Charles Schwab Challenge works:

• Field of 132 players
• After 36 holes, the field will be cut to the top 65 and ties.
• The purse of $9.1 million will see the winner take home $1.64 million plus 500 FedExCup points.
• Players not eligible for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday in two weeks will have this week and next to qualify via the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5.

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