Five betting lessons learned from PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Gorilla wrestled. Mountain climbed. Xander Schauffele quieted all the doubters – of which this writer was stupidly one – by winning the PGA Championship in record fashion at Valhalla Golf Club.

Schauffele turned his 13th top-10 finish in major championships into his first victory, shooting a sublime 6-under 65 under immense pressure from the chasing pack to post the first 21-under total in major history.

The California kid beat former U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau (64) by a shot when he coaxed his birdie putt on the 72nd hole into the cup. FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland took third place at 18-under while overnight co-leader Collin Morikawa had to settle for a T4 finish with Thomas Detry at 15-under.

At +1400 pre-tournament at BetMGM Sportsbook, Schauffele teed off as one of the favorites despite failing to close multiple chances to win since his 2022 Genesis Scottish Open victory. He was fresh off somewhat meekly surrendering the Wells Fargo Championship to Rory McIlroy over the back nine on Sunday.

Not doubting Schauffele going forward is among the betting lessons from this past week in Kentucky:

1. Xander Schauffele will be a force moving forward

Schauffele’s victory was a bittersweet experience for me. Having covered many of his now eight PGA TOUR victories, it was common knowledge to those who know me that he is one of my favorite (non-Australian) players to cover. I resonated with his underdog fierceness from his first win in 2017 at the Greenbrier to his tenaciousness at the TOUR Championship later that season.

But it was his Singles win at the 2019 Presidents Cup in Australia over crowd favorite Adam Scott that really earned my respect. Sensing some early annoyance in Scott after a messed-up hole, Schauffele turned to his caddie and said – in his own parlance – now was the time to stomp on Scott’s neck. He won the next two holes in killer fashion and later held off a fightback for a critical point.

But somewhere along the way, Schauffele lost his killer vibe, and the constant near-misses in majors had to be denting the confidence. This season alone he had been in the final group Sunday four times before yesterday and not closed. He was 2-for-8 in his career closing out 54-hole leads.

But Sunday in Valhalla he put the narrative to bed.

“Definitely a chip on the shoulder there," Schauffele said. "It just is what it is at the end of the day. You guys are asking the questions, probing, and I have to sit here and answer it. It's a lot easier to answer it with this thing (the Wanamaker Trophy) sitting next to me now, obviously. It's just fuel, fuel to my fire. It always has been growing up, and it certainly was leading up to this.”

With the underdog mentality back in his corner, Schauffele is a candidate to notch a bunch more wins in the near future following this major championship breakthrough.

2. Viktor Hovland may have turned the corner

Despite being the current FedExCup champion, Hovland was one of the surprise contenders at Valhalla. Prior to his third-place finish this week his best result in just seven starts was a T19 at The Genesis Invitational and his game had seemingly deserted him. It certainly had been a far cry from the man who dominated the FedExCup Playoffs last year. Multiple changes to his swing and psyche had him reportedly considering skipping the event altogether.

But the Hovland of old turned up at Valhalla, and after finishing runner-up at Oak Hill a year ago, now he has another near-miss to build off. This week he ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (he was 113th on the season); sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee (17th this season); sixth in SG: Approach (81st this season), 28th in SG: Around-the-Green (186th this season) and 30th in SG: Putting (72nd this season).

At +650 for a top-five finish pre-tournament, Hovland fans might have seen it coming, as did my colleague Rob Bolton, but I certainly didn’t. Even still, this might be the point we start factoring him back into the list of weekly contenders. His title defense at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday is just around the corner.

3. Scottie Scheffler is a beast, but still human after all

The fact Scheffler was able to put together a top-10 finish after his travails is almost superhuman. Having been arrested on Friday morning and almost missing his tee time, Scheffler defied reality by shooting a second-round 66. The Saturday 73 showed he is in fact human, as the world No. 1 wrestled with the adrenaline depletion forthcoming from said chaos the day before. It also helped show the importance of his caddie Ted Scott, who was away for the third round.

Masters champion Scheffler joined Schauffele, Morikawa and DeChambeau as the only players to finish inside the top-10 of the season’s first two majors.

“I think ‘hectic’ would probably be a good description," Scheffler said. "Overall right now how I'm feeling, I'm fairly tired, definitely a lot more tired than I have been finishing some other tournaments, but I'm proud of today how we went out there and fought.”

I confidently faded Scheffler pre-tournament for a number of factors, but let me tell you – I am not convinced he wouldn’t have won this tournament had his arrest not happened. He will be the favorite for the upcoming U.S. Open at Pinehurst, and rightfully so.

4. Rory McIlroy cannot be trusted at short odds in majors

I fell for it. I drank the Kool-Aid. After seeing McIlroy take down Schauffele at the Wells Fargo Championship the week prior, not only did I decide to back the Northern Irishman at +750 odds – I did so by switching my pick for the PGA Championship from Schauffele.

It was the ultimate bonehead move if you let the last decade of history be your guide. And now, don’t even ask me to consider McIlroy in a major again until a year from now when the PGA Championship will be held at Quail Hollow, where he has won four times. I don’t care if he wins in Canada, or at Jack’s Place, or defends the Genesis Scottish Open… I’m out.

I wish him well, but if he wins that elusive fifth major this year, I won’t have picked him. It especially stung to see him dump two wedges into the water on Sunday to eventually lose his 72-hole head-to-head matchup against Scheffler by a shot.

It was a rinse repeat for McIlroy who had three decent rounds and one off the pace.

“That sort of six-hole stretch on the back nine yesterday, not being able to hole any putts, I'll probably rue that,” McIlroy said. “Then the 71 on Friday, as well, was obviously not what I was looking for. Obviously put myself too far back.”

5. Major championships always bring value in props and weather matters

In hindsight, the lock of the week was the under on the tournament-winning score prop. Whether the pre-tournament line was 271.5 (between -12 and -13) or somewhere around it, the best in the world destroyed that number for one main reason: the course was wet. So the obvious lesson is, when rain is in the forecast or has been in the mix leading into an event, always take the under. These guys are just too good when greens get wet and become getable.

Outside of that, there are always value winners on place props and other matchups for you to explore. Thomas Detry was +2800 with BetMGM for a top-five finish pre-tournament, and +800 with a round to play. Billy Horschel, a recent winner at Puntacana, was +1200 for a Top 10. Robert MacIntyre had two top-13 finishes in his last three starts leading in and was +1600 for a Top 10 this week. Sure, not easy to pick, but it routinely happens in mafjors where someone with a bit of form pops up.

The lesson here is to keep an eye on who is trending well in the next few weeks before the U.S. Open – even if they’re not huge household names.

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