Prop Farm: Sahith Theegala could upset the top chalk at Quail Hollow

It has only been 21-years since the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club was born on the PGA TOUR calendar and yet, almost immediately, this became one of the more revered stops on the circuit.

For the second straight season, the tournament boasts Signature Event status. The 7,500+ yard, par 71, Tom Fazio design has played host to a PGA Championship (2017) and a Presidents Cup (2022). This year, it serves as a perfectly placed precursor to the season's second major championship.

The stakes are high and with that, a "big boy" golf course provides the test. Wyndham Clark is your defending champion, earning his first TOUR victory here last season - that suddenly launched him into becoming one of the world's most feared competitors, he captured a U.S. Open championship, won another Signature Event, and finished runner-up at Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS since then.

Maybe Clark's biggest nemesis in the last 12 months has been world No. 1, Scottie Scheffler. Looking to make it five wins in six starts, we will have to wait as Scheffler continues to anxiously await the birth of his first child and is absent from this week's field.

Senior Data Analyst at BetMGM, Drew O'Dell points out that Clark has been very popular at the betting window to make it back-to-back victories here in the Queen City.

"He is our second largest liability in the outright winner market," said O'Dell. "Rory McIlroy, Clark, and Max Homa are 1-2-3 in highest ticket count, handle, and liability this week."

McIlroy opened at +900 to get what would be his fourth win at Quail Hollow and is now down to +750 at BetMGM. Clark has gone from +1800 to +1400, and Homa, also a past Wells Fargo champion, from +2500 to +2200.

In a field of just 69 players, landing on the chalk seems almost inevitable, but I did not. The prices didn't feel worthy to me. Maybe if Scheffler was in the field, we'd be getting better value on the second tier of favorites. The shortest shot I took this week was on Sahith Theegala (+2500).

Quail Hollow Club is a course that demands stellar play off the tee. Total Driving is one of the first stats I look at every year when handicapping the Wells Fargo Championship. Theegala ranks 36th on TOUR in Total Driving. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 10th in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 17th in Greens in Regulation Gained, 22nd in Scrambling, and is No. 1 in SG: Putting (bermudagrass).

It is interesting to note that Thomas Gable, Director of Race and Sports at The Borgata in New Jersey, saw some sharp money go against Clark. "Respected money came in early on Tommy Fleetwood at +115 over Wyndham Clark in a tournament matchup. We moved to +110 on Fleetwood after the play," explained Gable.

Gable went on to point out other matchups garnering respected money. “Si Woo Kim at -120 over Alex Noren is now at -145 and Denny McCarthy +110 over Harris English is now McCarthy -115.”

Personally, I played English at -110 over McCarthy. English penciled out for me as someone much stronger for this particular track and the test it presents. English is superior off the tee, in driving distance, and in greens in regulation. We know McCarthy is an excellent putter but I actually have English ranking a few ticks better on bermudagrass over the last 36 rounds. At pick ‘em, I thought English was a good play. English finished third here last year and hasn’t missed a cut at Quail Hollow. McCarthy finished eighth last year after missing the cut in each of his first three trips to Charlotte.

Senior Manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook, Tristan Davis, is seeing the same as O’Dell as far as money pouring in on the favorites to win the tournament outright this week. But he did pass along this little nugget. “If you are looking for a diamond in the rough, there has been some respected support for Stephan Jaeger at +5500,” said Davis.

I personally did not land on Jaeger but I definitely understand it with his prowess off the tee and having finished top-3 at a similar test in Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open back in January.

It is not surprising to see sharp players gravitate toward the Tournament Matchup market as this is definitely one of the bettors most favorable opportunities on the entire golf betting menu.

“Our sharp play of the week has been Tony Finau to beat Russell Henley. Finau went from -125 to -135. Not the biggest move but it’s been all sharp,” Davis explained. “There has also been big support for Finau to also beat Sepp Straka at -135. Both sharp and recreational. We are holding at -135 for now. Straka missed the cut here last year but his last couple of starts have been very respectable.”

I mentioned playing Theegala earlier for an outright win. I have also played him for a top-20 finish and in two separate tournament matchups. Theegala over Homa and Theegala over Collin Morikawa. Rounding out my card of outrights (and also for a top-20 finish) are Si Woo Kim, Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners, Adam Schenk, and Matthieu Pavon.

Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman is seeing recreational play on Theegala outright and sharp action come in on Jake Knapp. Knapp is a big hitter and should fit this golf course well considering his strengths. He did it at another bombers track last week, coming out of the gate with two straight rounds of 64, only to end up finishing eighth.

Each of my outright winner selections ranks in the top 50 on TOUR in Total Driving.

Over the last 36 rounds, Kim is fifth in this field for SG: Off the Tee, 10th for SG: Approach, and is 16th in Bogey Avoidance.

An was excellent last week in Texas, finishing fourth. Putting being typically his weakness, he gained over three strokes on the field with the putter last week and An finished 28th here at Quail Hollow in the 2017 PGA Championship.

Our friend Justin Ray points out on X, Corey Conners is tied atop the list with Rory McIlroy for most strokes gained ball-striking here at this course since 2016. Conners finished eighth here in 2023.

Schenk is another player that played very well last week. He is ninth in this field for SG: Off the Tee and third in Greens in Regulation Gained over the last 36 rounds.

Finally, Pavon is someone I played as a triple-digit bomb and bomb it he did earlier this season en route to victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines happens to be another course in which my handicap emphasizes Total Driving, so I give Pavon a much better shot here than +10000 or more.

Hall of Fame Las Vegas bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich, working the bettor’s side of the counter, is also on Schenk and Pavon for an outright win this week. Gable is seeing sharp support for Conners and Kim at The Borgata. I asked Davis if he is seeing anything at Mandalay Bay regarding my picks this week. "If anything, a couple of sharp guys are on An."

Looks like I have all bases covered with both sharp and recreational support for my six outright selections this week. Like they say here in Las Vegas Raiders country, “Just win, baby.”