Prop Farm: Scottie Scheffler feels love but sharps shooting at Xander Schauffele

Harbour Town Golf Links, the scene for this week’s Signature Event the RBC Heritage, is one of my all-time favorite golf courses. I was lucky enough to play it in the summer of 2020 and I thought of what a calming respite this must be for TOUR players to set foot here in the Lowcountry after enduring the intensity of a major championship the week prior. The same behavior seems to take place at the betting window as the activity and anticipation has cooled off from where it was last week.

"The Masters business was great. We had the most wagering options we've ever done and the response was good," said Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman.

"This week feels like a Masters hangover. It's been a tad slow," Sherman continued. He also noted that Scottie Scheffler's win was good for the book with his odds being so short. Director of Race and Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, Thomas Gable concurred. "Scheffler winning at Augusta was a big win for us, as the price was so prohibitive, many stayed away."

Scheffler and the majority of the TOUR’s stars are back in the fold this week. He did not play here after winning the Masters in 2022 and finished 11th at Harbour Town last season when the tournament also had Signature Event status.

"In the Outright Winner market, despite Scheffler being +400, he has proven to be more popular in terms of money wagered than last week at the Masters. Even being priced in the same range, we do have liability on him," said Gable.

Senior Manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook in Las Vegas, Tristan Davis, is seeing a similar trend. "Scottie is the best-backed player this week. He has over 20% of the handle at +400."

It is not all Scheffler however, Davis added. "Due to the high-profile field, even right after the Masters, we are still seeing good money bet around on some other players. Keeping the trend going with players who performed well last week, Ludvig Åberg has the second most handle at +1400 and also the highest handle so far for a top-5 finish at +250 and a top-10 finish at +125 (including ties). Xander Schauffele a close third in handle for the outright win at +1200."

Sherman is seeing some volume in the outright market from some sharp bettors. "Lots of love for Schauffele and Shane Lowry this week." And in the Full Tournament Head-to-Head Matchup market, "Schauffele over Rory McIlroy is one we've seen from the sharps," Sherman noted.

Bettors at Mandalay Bay are also going against McIlroy in a head-to-head matchup, Davis pointed out. "Just one matchup where we got a slither of sharp money but at short odds and that is Scheffler to beat Rory. It had been -200 and now into -230."

Golf enthusiasts have been keen on Åberg since he burst onto the scene less than a year ago but the world got to see what he can do up close and personal in his tremendous runner-up finish at the Masters. "It took a while but the punters are now noticing Åberg's rise up the rankings and more so after an extremely good debut at the Masters. I'm expecting this year for him to be one of our most bet-on players going forward," Davis forecasted.

Gable is seeing new-found love for the 24-year-old Swede as well. "Åberg (+1400) is also attracting money and we have some liability on him in the outright market but right now, the biggest loser for us would be Sam Burns at +4500."

That is very interesting on Burns, who like Scheffler, is eagerly awaiting the birth of his first child. Both players said they would pull out of the Masters if their wife went into labor. A week has passed and the possibility of either player having to withdraw remains true. Sherman commented, "There is no cut this week, so they would have to leave the tournament with the baby due. Plus, it could be a distraction, playing with this on their minds."

Gable let me know about a couple of other bets for which he is seeing sharp play come in at The Borgata. “For First round leader, we have some respected money on Nick Taylor (+6600), Sepp Straka (+5000) and Tony Finau (+4000),” he said.

“In Head-to-Head Tournament Matchups we took some respected money on Sungjae Im at -150 over Kurt Kitayama. We have since moved the price on Im to -175."

The Hole-in-One prop bet was a popular one last week at Augusta and the YES cashed on the very first day. Action has gone the opposite direction this week at Mandalay Bay. "The betting suggests that the Par 3s will be tricky this time around. We're now at -200 for there not to be a hole-in-one for the entire tournament and the punters have welcomed that with open arms. We put up -165 early in the week and the NO got bet with a lot of confidence," explained Davis.

The bet on the NO for me to make a hole-in-one when I played there nearly four years ago cashed as a winner but I did make a birdie on the No. 1 handicap, eighth hole. I have to believe the sharps were betting the NO on that too.