Lucky 13: History says one of these 13 players will win 2024 Masters

And then there were the "Lucky 13."

With the opening round of the 88th Masters concluding Friday morning, one statistic has to be monitored: Which players were inside the top 11 on the leaderboard through 18 holes?

We might have nearly three days of golf left, but only 13 players remain in contention for a green jacket – that is, if history is anything to go by.

The last 18 consecutive champions – and 71 of the 87 winners – were all inside the top 11 after the opening round. If this trend continues, the winner at Augusta National will come from a group that includes Bryson DeChambeau (7-under 65), Scottie Scheffler (66), Nicolai Højgaard (67), Max Homa (67), Danny Willett (68), Cam Davis (69), Ryan Fox (69), Matthieu Pavon (70), Cameron Young (70), Corey Conners (70), Joaquin Niemann (70), Byeong Hun An (70) or Will Zalatoris (70).

Not since Tiger Woods was T33 through one round in 2005 has a player ultimately won the green jacket without a hot start.

So let’s break down the chances of the Lucky 13, with updated odds to win via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Scottie Scheffler (-6, +150)

The 2022 Masters champion is the prohibitive favorite, having already been the shortest pre-tournament favorite since Tiger Woods in 2013. Scheffler went bogey-free on Thursday and is coming off wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS while also being one putt short of a playoff at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Scheffler was inside the top seven of all Strokes Gained stats except for putting but still gained against the average on the greens.

Bryson DeChambeau (-7, +500)

The first-round leader produced just his fourth career round in the 60s at Augusta National, but it was his best at the venue in his 25th attempt. His best finish previously is a T21, which came on the way to winning low amateur on debut in 2016. DeChambeau led the field after 18 holes in 2019 before fading to T29. Found the lead via great ball-striking but also a hot putter.

Max Homa (-5, +1600)

Homa’s 67 was his first round in the 60s at Augusta National, where he’s never had a top-40 finish. After garnering his first-ever major top 10 at The Open Championship last year, perhaps the six-time PGA TOUR winner is finally figuring out the big championships. He led the first round in Strokes Gained: Putting. In four previous Masters, Homa made the cut just twice and posted totals of 6-over and 14-over in those.

Joaquin Niemann (-2, +2500)

A winner of the Australian Open late last year to help earn a special invitation to the tournament, Niemann is playing his fifth Masters after having first taken part as the Latin America Amateur champion in 2018. His best finish at Augusta National is a T16 from last year, and his career-low round at Augusta is 69.

Nicolai Højgaard (-5, +2800)

The European Ryder Cupper was one of the big surprises of the opening round, leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. In his first Masters, he is seeking to be the first debutant to win since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. A runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open in January and already a multiple time DP World Tour winner at just 23, Højgaard matched the all-time record for low score by a European in his very first Masters round.

Will Zalatoris (-2, +3000)

In his two previous Masters appearances, Zalatoris finished as runner-up in 2021 and T6 in 2022. He was forced to withdraw a year ago with a back injury that resulted in surgery and a lengthy absence from the game. Zalatoris returned this season and has finished runner up at Riviera Country Club and T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Has six top-eight finishes in majors without a victory.

Cameron Young (-2, +3500)

Young is coming off a T7 in last year’s Masters after missing the cut on debut in 2022. He was the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in 2022 and already has four top 10s in majors, including a runner up at the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews that same year. Career low round at Augusta National is a 67.

Corey Conners (-2, +6600)

Playing in his seventh Masters, the Canadian is rebounding from missing the cut last year. But the two-time TOUR winner did have a run of three straight Masters top 10s from 2020-22. As usual, Conners moved up the leaderboard via his sublime approach game, ranking eighth in the field.

Cam Davis (-3, +8000)

The young Australian is playing just his second Masters having finished 46th in 2022. Prior to his 69 in the opening round, his best Masters score was a 73. His best finish in a major came in the 2023 PGA Championship, where a final-round 65 saw him surge to T4, the catalyst to his invite this week.

Danny Willett (-4, +10000)

The 2016 Masters champion wound back the clock with a tidy 68, all despite returning to competition after recent shoulder surgery. Having not played in over six months, he wasn’t even a certainty to take his place in the field before his seven-birdie, three-bogey effort.

Ryan Fox (-3, +10000)

New Zealand’s Fox was the pace-setter early in Round 1, opening with three straight birdies and then slotting an eagle at the par-5 eighth hole. Sadly, he gave two shots back on the second nine. He finished T26 on Masters debut in 2023 without a round in the 60s.

Matthieu Pavon (-2, +10000)

The Frenchman is chasing a first Masters title for his country in his first Masters. He hit 13 of 18 greens in his first round on the property. The winner of the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season is also a DP World Tour winner.

Byeong Hun An (-2, +10000)

Returning for his fifth Masters, but first since 2020, An is looking to best his previous high of T33 in 2017. In fact, the former International Presidents Cup team member missed the cut in his other three appearances. Prior to the opening round, his scoring average at Augusta National was 74.40. He led the field in SG: Off the Tee, hitting 11 of 14 fairways in the blustery winds.

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