Prop Farm: Head-to-heads, aces and albatrosses getting action for Texas Children’s Houston Open

Two of the more prolific items the farms of Texas are known for producing are cotton and horses. The Lone Star State has also spit out some of the best golfers ever to play the game over many decades. Maybe "horses for courses" is what we should really be looking at this week as the TOUR moves on from the Florida Swing for a two-week stop in Texas.

Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston is the site of this week's event, the Texas Children's Houston Open. This will be the fourth straight season that Memorial Park provides the test, although this is the first of those held in spring rather than fall. It is difficult to find specific horses for courses over such a short time but we have seen, in general, that this challenging, long, par 70 layout, favors big hitters with a deft touch on and around the greens.

"Sahith Theegala is getting a lot of love this week," said highly regarded Las Vegas golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman. "He's No. 1 in ticket count to win the tournament. We've seen sharp action on Carl Yuan."

Yuan certainly fits the profile as a possible horse for this course, ranking fifth on TOUR in Driving Distance and 18th for Strokes Gained: Around the Green. He finished 35th here in his debut last season. Yuan was fifth last week at the Valspar Championship and was fourth to begin the year at the Sony Open in Hawaii. It is worth noting that those courses both feature bermudagrass, the same turf we have here this week in Houston.

Senior Manager at Mandalay Bay Race and Sportsbook, Tristan Davis, is also seeing money come in on Theegala, who now resides in Spring, Texas, about 30 minutes north of Houston.

"Theegala is our best-backed player all week," he said. "He has been +2200 to win it outright, into +1600. Wyndham Clark at +1400 into +1200 is our second most bet-on player. They also lead the way in handle in our specials market winner without Scottie Scheffler.”

Theegala also sports the combination of a good long and short game as he ranks 25th on TOUR for SG: Off the Tee and is seventh in SG: Putting. He finished 22nd here in Houston last season.

After Scheffler won two weeks in a row as the shortest-priced player on the board, Peter Malnati went back to what we have seen quite a bit on TOUR this season, winning the Valspar Championship at +30000 at BetMGM. At The Borgata in New Jersey, Director of Race and Sports, Thomas Gable, has seen bettors go back the other way - back to the top of the odds board and Scheffler.

"In the outright winner market, obviously Scheffler is such a huge favorite at +275, but that hasn’t slowed people from betting on him. He has attracted the most dollars wagered by far," said Gable. "Scheffler is also attracting money in the First Round Leader market at +1000. We have seen respected money on Theegala here too at +2800."

Sherman noted a recent report from the media tent at Memorial Park that said Clark injured his back working out - but is feeling better and was able to get through nine holes in a practice round. Hall of Fame Las Vegas bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich is seeing bettors fade Clark in the finish position market.

"They're betting on the no to finish top-10," he said. "Keith Mitchell, too. No to finish top-20."

Bogdanovich went on to point out some action he has seen in the Tournament Matchups. "Alex Noren over Thorbjorn Olesen, Billy Horschel over Jake Knapp, Tom Hoge over Taylor Moore, and Ben Silverman over Greyson Sigg are all sharp plays," Bogdanovich said.

Head-to-Head Matchups seems to be a popular item on the menu this week as Gable rolled out a six-pack of noteworthy plays. "Tony Finau (-105) over Will Zalatoris (-115), Horschel (+110) over Kurt Kitayama (-130), Cameron Champ (+110) over Taylor Pendrith (-130), Ben Silverman (+105) over Andrew Novak (-125), Justin Suh (+115) over Sigg (-135) and Chris Gotterup (+100) over Max Greyserman (-120) have all taken respected money," said Gable.

Davis has seen three matchups come across his screen at Mandalay Bay as noteworthy.

"A few tournament matchups getting some good traction are Doug Ghim to beat KurtKitayama at -120, Finau to beat Theegala at +115 and our most bet on so far, Stephen Jaeger to beat Mackenzie Hughes at -110," he said. "It’s all recreational money, however. We have not seen our sharps turn out yet for this tournament at this time. They might be looking to next week already," explained Davis.

For some of the more obscure markets seeing action this week, we turn to Drew O'Dell, senior data analyst for BetMGM.

"All of these markets are seeing more action than usual," said O'Dell.

Will there be a hole-in-one? "The yes is getting over 97% of the tickets at -190," he said.

The nationality market for Top Brit and Irish. "Harry Hall has accounted for nearly 95% of the tickets," he added.

How about whether or not Knapp make the cut? "Less than 43% of the tickets are on the yes at -200," O'Dell said. "57.1% of the tickets are on the no at +150."

Finally, O'Dell noted that +1200 for an albatross in the tournament is being played. "No isn't an option in this market - they are just betting the affirmative."

Everything's bigger in Texas - even the action on some of the more exotic prop bets.

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