Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler opens as biggest betting favorite on PGA TOUR in nearly a year

After a month and four events played in Florida, the PGA TOUR is off to Texas for two weeks before the first major of the season.

The first stop in the Lone Star State is Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Red-hot Scottie Scheffler (+300 at BetMGM Sportsbook) heads to the municipal track to make it three in a row on TOUR, and he does so as a prohibitive favorite. His +300 opening odds are the shortest for a pre-tournament favorite since last year’s Mexico Open at Vidanta when Jon Rahm opened at +240 before finishing runner-up to Tony Finau.

Winning THE PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in his last two starts, it will take something special to knock off Scheffler in his home state. Returning to March after a four-year stint in the fall, the Texas Children's Houston Open will feature the two-time reigning PLAYERS Champion for the fourth consecutive edition. Posting 62 in Round 2 here in 2021, the Dallas resident couldn’t close the deal with the 54-hole lead and finished T2. The most recent edition played in the fall of 2022, saw him collect T9 and make the cut for the third consecutive time. The only multiple-winner in 2024, he leads the TOUR in too many categories to count and is the clear favorite anytime he tees it up.

The man who has finished second to Scheffler the last two times he’s teed it up will be looking to score the knock-out punch. Wyndham Clark (+1400) posted four rounds in the red at Bay Hill Club & Lodge during the second stop of the Florida Swing, but it was only good enough for second place, five shots behind the champion Scheffler. Sharing the lead in his next event at THE PLAYERS Championship, he led after 18 holes and by four shots after 36 holes. The reigning U.S. Open champion looked to be on his way back to the winner’s circle. But sitting one off the 54-hole lead, a violent lip-out on the 72nd hole cost him a chance to force a playoff with Scheffler for the title. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion from February has cashed first or second in three of his last five on TOUR.

Breaking a fantastic run of T4-T2-T13 with a missed cut at TPC Sawgrass, the now-healthy Will Zalatoris (+1800) will look to get back on track with the season’s first major in a fortnight. A streak of 17 rounds of 72 or better crashed with 73-75 at THE PLAYERS. Memorial Park plays to Par-70 and tips at 7,435 yards and that should play into the strength of his tee-to-green game. Ranking No. 6 in SG: Approach the Green, he will have plenty of ammunition in his bag playing this track for the first time.

The last time Memorial Park hosted the event was in November of 2022 and Tony Finau (+2000) ran away from the fall field. The big hitter tied the course record of 62 in Round 2 and led by four heading into the final round on 15 under. A final round 31-38 posted a tournament record 16-under and he comfortably won by four shots. The reigning champion defends against a field of 144 and is the only former winner playing this week. Needing to get into gear, he missed the cut last week at Innisbrook after cashing T45 at THE PLAYERS. Placing T6 at Torrey Pines, another track that favors power players off the tee, is his only top-10 payday in a quiet start to the new season. The rough is down an inch this year and that should help him, and the rest of the field, overcome any accuracy issues off the tee.

After picking up his first victory at the Fortinet Championship in September, sharp eyes have continued to follow Sahith Theegala (+2200). Kicking off the season with a solo second in Maui, the Californian has not shown any signs of cooling off. Cashing another top 5 at the WM Phoenix Open, not even the change of grasses in the Florida Swing bothered his game. Placing T6 at Bay Hill, he added another top 10 (T9) in his last start on TOUR at THE PLAYERS Championship. Hoping the third time is the charm at Memorial Park, he closed with 64 last year for T22.

Texas has always been good to Jason Day (+2500). Picking up his first TOUR victory at the 2010 Byron Nelson, the Australian has also won the former WGC-Match Play Championship at the Austin Country Club. Returning to the Dallas area in May, he will defend the AT&T Byron Nelson. Houston has treated him well in his three previous visits, including T7 on the event debut in 2020 and four rounds in the 60s last time for T16. Back-to-back top-10 paydays on the West Coast did not follow him to Florida, but his worst finish from seven starts in 2024 is only T36 (API). A wide-open layout with only 21 bunkers and water on only four holes should fit his eye.

Here's a look at other notable odds via BetMGM, including Keith Mitchell who failed to convert a 54-hole lead last week at Innisbrook:

• +3300: Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell, Si Woo Kim
• +4000: Billy Horschel
• +5000: Aaron Rai, Beau Hossler, Jake Knapp, Mackenzie Hughes, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Hoge
• +5500: Akshay Bhatia, Doug Ghim, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Moore
• +6600: Kurt Kitayama, Thomas Detry, Andrew Novak, Ben Griffin, Joel Dahmen, K.H. Lee, Luke List
• +8000: Adam Svensson, Thorbjorn Olesen
• +9000: Davis Thompson, Matt Wallace
• +10000: Carl Yuan, Daniel Berger, Joseph Bramlett, Mark Hubbard, Matti Schmid, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan Moore, Scott Stallings, Victor Perez

How the Texas Children’s Houston Open works:

• A field of 144 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes.
• Purse of $9.1 million
• The winner takes home $1.638 million, plus 500 FedExCup points, an invitation to the Masters, and the 2025 Sentry.
• Reminder: Memorial Park is hosting for the fourth time in five years (no calendar 2023 event) and the fourth time this century. The results from Texas Children's Houston Opens played before 2020 are not relevant to course history this week.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.