Prop Farm: Sharp money follows Min Woo Lee, Eric Cole among others ahead of Valspar Championship

After nine weeks of triple-digit winners and no player shorter than +4000, the PGA TOUR has gone the opposite direction with the pre-tournament favorite (Scottie Scheffler) taking home the cash in two consecutive weeks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and THE PLAYERS Championship.

We have noted here in this column, the popularity of bets on Scheffler at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS. After cleaning up with some random winners and long-shot results to begin the season, did the favorite winning outright sting the books at all?

"Yeah, it stung but you can't win every week," said Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race & Sportsbook in Las Vegas. "The great thing about Scheffler winning in the way he did, was that I think it will get the punters excited come major season even more so.

“I think the weeks leading up to the Masters and beyond will see the punters get involved heavily per what was on display last Sunday. I believe that caught the bettor's attention very much and they will want to get more involved going forward.”

Director of Race & Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, Thomas Gable added, "It definitely hurt last week. The week before wasn't as bad."

But the lights are still on at sportsbooks around the country and as bettors we know, the books will be just fine. And we march on to the Valspar Championship.

This week is the final leg of the 2024 Florida Swing as the TOUR makes its way to the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor. The field has some star power for sure but not like we have seen the past couple of weeks with Signature Events. This hasn't stopped bettors from gravitating toward the favorites.

"Punters have been happy to take the short odds for Xander Schauffele this week at +750. He leads the handle in the outright market followed by Justin Thomas (+1400) and Brian Harman (+2000)," explained Davis. "It’s a growing trend that punters back up on the players who performed well the previous week."

Davis continued, saying he is seeing some recreational play in the Finish Position markets, "Harman leads the way for a top-10 finish at +200 and for a top-20. We have seen some business for Doug Ghim at +190 too."

At The Borgata, Gable's handle in the outright market has been slightly different. "Mostly chalk plays so far. Schauffele, Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth are all taking pretty good action. Keegan Bradley at +4000 has also attracted some decent action," said Gable.

"Eric Cole continues to be a popular weekly selection and we have seen sharp money on Sepp Straka in the outright market," said Jeff Sherman, Renown Las Vegas golf oddsmaker.

Hall of Fame bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich is seeing Cole take sharp money in a head-to-head matchup over Webb Simpson. But in the outright market, Bogdanovich notes, "Sharp money has come in on Adam Svensson and Keith Mitchell to win it."

Bogdanovich is a good golfer and likes to bet on golf personally as well. He successfully tipped Wyndham Clark to win last year's U.S. Open.

"Sharp money on Min Woo Lee to make the cut has been a play this week, as well as JT (Justin Thomas) to finish top-10," said the Las Vegas native.

"In tournament matchups, Webb Simpson (-110) over Davis Thompson has attracted sharp money," said Gable. Respected money is backing Simpson at The Borgata.

"In the First Round Leader market we have seen respected money on Svensson (+9000), Cole (+5000) and Aaron Wise (+12500) as some bombs," said the veteran bookmaker Gable. Like Bogdanovich, Gable is also seeing some sharp money on Svensson and Cole.

"Andrew Novak to beat Mackenzie Hughes has moved from +120 to +105 and Alexander Bjork to beat Sami Valimaki has gone from -120 into -135," Davis said. At Mandalay Bay, Davis has seen two head-to-head matchups take sharp money.

Davis mentioned earlier that he believes bettors will be inspired by Scheffler's recent play and will ramp up their golf betting involvement as we near ever closer to the season's first major championship. Way back when, Scheffler was around +900 to win the 2024 Masters. Since his consecutive victories on TOUR, he has dipped to below +500 and is now in that familiar position once again, atop the odds board at +450 to slip on a green jacket for the second time in his career.

Rory McIlroy is the next closest selection at more than twice the price (+1000). As I noted after the win at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, if the putter remains hot for Scheffler, I don't have an answer as to who is going to be able to beat him.

It will be interesting to see where the chips fall the next few weeks - will we go back to long shots winning or will the recent trend of the favorite continue? By the time we get to Augusta National, maybe +450 will be a bargain.

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