Golfbet Insider: Aaron Rai perfect fit for challenging Copperhead Course

A common misconception among bettors and gamers is that they can expect certain golfers to mail it in because they have nothing to lose following a big week.

There is no causal connection for players between the outcome of THE PLAYERS Championship and their prospects at this week’s Valspar Championship. No, not all 11 of the guys in the Valspar who recorded a top 20 at TPC Sawgrass will make noise at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, but whatever dots you are compelled to connect will be in hindsight.

Commitment deadlines fall at 5 p.m. ET every Friday, two sleeps before the nerves might tingle on Sunday afternoon of the tournament underway at the time. And these guys are professionals. They wouldn’t plan the trip to Palm Harbor, no matter how short, unless they expected to vie for the title.

If you’re still cynical, think about the Masters decompression corridor en route to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage and apply the same logic. THE PLAYERS presents heightened feels for competition. What happens next isn’t a letdown; rather, it’s an opportunity to reset and be ready for the next arena in quieter surroundings.

Pull quote

Jimmy Stanger (+400 = Top 20 via BetMGM Sportsbook) … The PGA TOUR rookie is a grizzled veteran of five full seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour, and now he’s returning home in a groove for the Valspar Championship.

In his last two starts, the Tampa native paced all rookies in his fields, first with a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open where 23 rookies competed, and then again at THE PLAYERS Championship where he was the last man in the field and finished T35, best among six rookies. At 76th in the FedExCup, he ranks fourth in his class of 29 which includes early winners Matthieu Pavon and Jake Knapp.

During his meeting with the media on Tuesday, Stanger was asked to explain the impact of his podium finish in Puerto Rico.

“I think it just gave me the confidence that I could compete out here,” he said.

“I had a chance to win coming down the stretch and played good golf,” Stanger added, “so let's just continue to do that last week at THE PLAYERS. Let's continue to do that this week here at the Valspar. Yeah, it's special any time you get to compete on the PGA TOUR and have a chance to win. So that's the goal, let's get ourselves in contention.”

My take: For all of the talent that the Sunshine State has produced, there’s not a ton of it from the Tampa area, so this is a special opportunity from all angles.

Home games aren’t for everyone and he will “have 50 people at a minimum out watching at some point Thursday and Friday,” so his experience grinding to this level in conjunction with his comportment will be tested by the attention and potential distractions. It’s a blessing that his game is in good shape upon arrival.

No matter what happens in the first two rounds, he’ll still celebrate. His 29th birthday is Saturday.

Power Rankings wild card

Aaron Rai (+200 = Top 20) … As much as I’d love to push for a top 10 at +400, that you’re still getting back double your investment with twice the margin for finish position is attractive.

The Englishman is a tournament debutant. None of last year’s first-timers finished inside the top 10 and only Davis Riley (P2) and Sahith Theegala (T7) connected for one in their forays in 2022. So, forget about that reach.

Meanwhile, no one splits more fairways on average than Rai, so he’s perfectly equipped for the first test of the challenging Copperhead Course. He’s also inside the top 15 on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and par-3 scoring, the last of which is particularly useful with five of them on the card.

His incumbent form also is solid as he’s signed for 13 consecutive scores of par or better upon arrival. So, really, the only question is what took him so long to make his first appearance.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Joel Dahmen and Aaron Rai (+1200 = Both Finish Inside Top 20)
• Erik Barnes (+450 = Top 20)
• Keegan Bradley (+160 = Miss the Cut)
• Beau Hossler (+200 = Top 20)
• Andrew Putnam (+260 = Top 20)

Returning to competition

Garrick Higgo … For the second time in nine starts spanning five months, a wrist injury forced him to withdraw during his second round of THE PLAYERS. It first happened at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in October. Although it hasn’t been confirmed which wrist is the issue, he’s been using tape and a wrap around his left wrist during the same time period. And yet, he’s cashed five times in 2024, including a T16 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches where he was one shot off the 36-hole lead.

NOTABLE WDs

Patrick Cantlay … This is his first early withdrawal after the commitment deadline in over three years. Given that he hadn’t teed it up at Copperhead since 2017, he’d have been a speculative consideration, anyway. Sits 19th in the FedExCup.

Tom Kim … He’ll remain sidelined for the time being. A high fever knocked him out of THE PLAYERS during the opening round. After a fruitful FedExCup Fall, he’s 6-for-8 in 2024 and without a top-15 finish. So, he’s 84th in the FedExCup.

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