DraftKings preview: Back Sam Burns at Valspar Championship

The PGA TOUR heads to Palm Harbor, Florida, this week for the Valspar Championship. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort will be the host and measures as a 7,340-yard par 71 with Poa Trivialis over-seeded greens.

Despite this not being a Signature Event, there's a strong field this week, headlined at the top by two-time champion Sam Burns, alongside last week’s PLAYERS Championship runner-up, Xander Schauffele.

Below, I have outlined three of my favorite DraftKings plays for the week.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Pitch + Putt [$200K to 1st]

Sam Burns ($10,900)

This event might as well be known as the Burns Invitational, as no one else in the field comes close to having the course history that Burns does at Copperhead. He posted back-to-back wins here in 2021 and 2022, before a T6 last year and a T12 in 2018. Burns has failed to miss a cut here in five trips, with his worst finish being T30 in 2019. It will come as no surprise that Burns leads this field in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Copperhead, sitting a 2.48 per.

The majority of those strokes have come from his elite putting at this event, as Burns also leads this field with a mark of 1.68 strokes gained per round on the greens. Burns’ performance at THE PLAYERS was a roller coaster ride, but he ultimately gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, as well as around-the-green, in what culminated with a T45 finish.

I will forgive Burns for one sub-par week, as he’d just gone on a run of four top-10s across his previous five starts. I expect him to get right back on track this week at arguably his favorite course on the PGA TOUR.

Doug Ghim ($8,400)

It’s impossible to ignore the run that Ghim has been on of late. He finished T16 last week at THE PLAYERS, which marked his fifth straight top-16 dating back to the Farmers Insurance Open. He also ranks No. 2 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the past 24 rounds, trailing only Schauffele.

Ghim’s resurgence has been his putting, which went from a major liability into a real strength. Ghim has gained strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts, including 7.9 combined over the past two weeks.

After missing the cut in his first start at the Valspar in 2021, Ghim posted a T27 last year, a finish I fully expect him to build on this week. He is laying the foundation for his first-career PGA TOUR victory, and at the minimum is a great play this week at $8,400

Matt NeSmith ($6,500)

NeSmith has had a rough go lately, making just two of his last five cuts. However, he finally showed signs of improvement at THE PLAYERS with a T26 finish. NeSmith gained 5.3 strokes ball-striking at TPC Sawgrass, which was his best performance since the Wyndham Championship back in August.

In terms of course history, the Copperhead course has always treated NeSmith well, as he finished T3 in 2022 and T21 in 2021 across his only two starts. As a matter of fact, only Davis Riley and Burns in this field have averaged more Total Strokes gained per round at the Copperhead Course than NeSmith.

Last week’s showing was quite encouraging, and I think NeSmith makes a ton of sense at this dirt-cheap $6,500 price tag here.

Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $750K Pitch + Putt [$200K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is Lan1228) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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