Golfbet Insider: TPC Sawgrass is true defending champion at THE PLAYERS

Despite what the history book says, there actually has been a successful title defense at THE PLAYERS Championship. It's TPC Sawgrass, year after year.

Although the human winner’s average score across his four rounds is in the 60s in each of the last 14 editions, there’s more virtue in posting and getting the heck out than there is puffing out the chest and asking for more. If that’s a constant for entire fields, then determining a winner is more of an outcome than it is an objective. When lightning strikes twice in the same place at TPC Sawgrass, random overrides frequency because, of course, there’s never been a successful title defense.

This is also why there really isn’t a favorite to prevail. Perhaps at no other tournament is it more obvious that betting houses set odds to answer to algorithms to stay in business more than they’re aligned with expectations for performance. Therein lies the incredible value for bettors.

Because TPC Sawgrass doesn’t discriminate, it’d make sense that odds for all golfers should be equal. Of course, they are not, so you can leverage these values to your advantage.

Tee-to-green proficiency, course management and patience all play up on this course. Youth often can be served in the context of a combination of talent and the absence of scar tissue, but limit those considerations to place props like Top 20s and Top 40s.

The field is stacked as expected, but the guaranteed humility that awaits all in conjunction with exceptional values encourages you to be more aggressive with the rank and file. You’ll find more Tap-ins below the usual.

Pull Quote

Patrick Cantlay (+120 = Top 20 via BetMGM Sportsbook) … Because most golfers in the Power Rankings don’t require additional review beyond the capsules beside their names – he’s No. 14 – it’s not the plan to dive deeper into any of them. However, he does warrant a longer look, so it was helpful that he had a pre-tournament presser.

His lackluster track record at TPC Sawgrass is surprising, but it doesn’t diminish his affinity for the course. No question he respects it wholly.

“I think it's one of the best golf courses we play all year,” Cantlay said to the media on Tuesday. “It really demands smart golf shots, especially off the tee. You hit a lot of clubs that aren't driver around here, especially when the wind changes direction, and I think it's one of the golf courses probably most on TOUR that you have to control your golf ball. The areas are small, and there's big penalty if you don't play from the correct areas.”

My take: Of the 18 tournaments in which he’s competed at least five times, including all four majors, THE PLAYERS is the only one in which he’s yet to record a top-15 finish. (This is his seventh appearance.) That’s all you need to know about the challenge of TPC Sawgrass.

Relevant to the test, as much as Cantlay can go low with the best of ‘em, when competition is fierce, he’s arguably better known for his tenacity and how little he gives the opposition. Yet, navigating TPC Sawgrass requires a higher level of execution that he’s yet to exhibit on it.

Therefore, backpedal a bit on his considerations.

Power Rankings Wild Card

Ludvig Åberg (+200 = Miss the Cut) … This isn’t intended to be provocative, but it’s okay if you’re not convinced. I just love the value for an unprecedented experience.

Since ascending to the professional ranks just nine months ago, he’s been a monster. He’s also missed only one cut, that by one stroke at the Genesis Scottish Open in his fifth start as a pro. However, now he’s making his debut at TPC Sawgrass where he’s unlikely to make it look as easy as he has just about everything else.

My comp for the 24-year-old Swede is his fellow Scandinavian, Viktor Hovland. The 26-year-old from Norway has missed only seven cuts in 97 PGA TOUR starts as a professional, but one of them was in his debut at THE PLAYERS in 2021, and it was his only MC of that season. Hovland since has added a T9 (2022) and a T3 (2023), and head-to-head, he makes a stronger case as a better fit for TPC Sawgrass than Åberg, anyway, but he still needed to strike out in his first at-bat before he was a legitimate threat.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• 17th Hole (+200 = Hole-in-One)
• Byeong Hun An (+300 = Top Korean)
• Wyndham Clark (+150 = Top 20)
• Cam Davis (+320 = Top 20)
• Ryan Fox (+180 = Top 40)
• Doug Ghim (+350 = Top 20)
• Brian Harman (+240 = Top 20)
• Garrick Higgo (+300 = Top 40)
• Mark Hubbard (+225 = Top 40)
• Alex Noren (+188 = Top Swedish)
• Aaron Rai (+350 = Top English)
• Erik van Rooyen (+130 = Top South African)
• Brandon Wu (+250 = Top 40)

Notable WDs

Tiger Woods … It’s no secret that he’s week-to-week and month-to-month with his physical ability to compete at a level that satisfies his expectation; however, this is the last edition of THE PLAYERS for which he’s automatically exempt via his victory at the 2019 Masters.

Danny Willett … In late September of 2023, he underwent surgery to repair two tears and other problems in his left shoulder. He’s been hitting balls again for a little over a month now and hasn’t ruled out a return at Augusta National where he won the Masters in 2016.

Will Gordon … Qualified but didn’t commit. He had withdrawn early from his last scheduled start at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, so this makes it five consecutive weeks off since he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. No news has surfaced to explain his decision.

David Lingmerth … The Swede has appeared just twice this season, missing the cut in both. Then, on Feb. 8, he shared with his followers on Instagram that he’s been dealing with pain for a while and has decided to dedicate time to heal. He didn’t provide details but the 36-year-old most recently battled a sore back last summer.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.