Prop Farm: Sam Burns, Ludvig Åberg, Keegan Bradley popping in props for Arnold Palmer Invitational

For the fourth time this PGA TOUR season, this week brings us another Signature Event - this time in the form of the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Lodge & Country Club in Orlando, Florida.

It was three weeks ago, the last time a powerhouse field was assembled, at The Genesis Invitational, where we witnessed a historic Sunday charge by Hideki Matsuyama to capture the win.

As we get closer to THE PLAYERS Championship and the season's first major championship, the buzz for golf fans and bettors seems to be progressing with each passing week. The Signature Events are a big part of that boost.

"It certainly does help the appeal to the casual golf bettor," said Thomas Gable, director of Race & Sportsbook at The Borgata in New Jersey, when asked if the star-studded fields provide a recognizable increase in the handle.

"You will always have the regular golf bettors involved every week but there is definitely an increase in recreational money when you have guys like Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth in the field," Gable added.

Senior manager at Mandalay Bay Race & Sportsbook, Tristan Davis, expanded upon what Gable sees from the Signature Events.

"Yeah it does, I think," he said. "People are more inclined to watch when they know it’s a loaded field. And if they are going to watch, they are more inclined to have a bet - so yes, we have seen an uptick this week for sure."

Bay Hill had always been the late, great, Arnold Palmer's baby. They say, "cash is king" and of course, Palmer has always been known as "The King."

“To win the tournament, it's been all Rory McIlroy as far as the favorites. He is currently 15% of our hold at +900," Davis points out. "In terms of longer shots, off of a great final round last week, Erik van Rooyen is attracting the most so far at +8000, making him our most notable liability at this stage leading up to Round 1.

“We get this type of money every week I reckon. The player who has a real good final round the week before - we tend to see him bet on for an outright win the following week.”

Davis noted that outside of McIlroy, the betting in the outright market is spread out pretty evenly - also indicating a heightened interest in the tournament's Signature status. Respected Las Vegas bookmakers, Jeff Sherman and Jay Kornegay drew a similar picture.

"Ludvig Åberg and Cameron Young are getting support," said Sherman. "Kurt Kitayama is being bet to repeat and Austin Eckroat too - to go back-to-back.

"It has been respected play on Åberg and Young. The others just stand out from the public."

Kornegay piggy-backed by saying, "I heard some good things this week about Åberg."

"In order, it is Scottie Scheffler No. 1, followed by McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris and Spieth," said Drew O'Dell, senior data analyst for BetMGM who seeing the big names lighting up the ticket count for a Top 5 Finish.

At Mandalay Bay, Davis added another name to the mix.

"For a Top 5 Finish, Sam Burns at +375 is leading the charge clearly, and a bit of a surprise as well, " Davis noted. "I guess punters think he can turn it around at Bay Hill after missing the cut here last year. But he did have a good outing last time out at Phoenix and at The Genesis. His matchup with Patrick Cantlay has also attracted some attention, going against Cantlay at +105."

This will be Burns' seventh time playing the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has missed the cut in two of his last three visits but did record a ninth-place finish in 2022. Not only did Burns cash Top 10 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis but did so at The American Express and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as well, giving him four straight top-10 finishes on TOUR coming into this week.

Outside of McIlroy, Scheffler and Spieth, an interesting name is getting attention for First Round Leader.

"Keegan Bradley is our most bet player in this market as far as ticket count," said O'Dell.

This will be Bradley's 13th time playing in this tournament. He has finished in the top 10 four times, including a runner-up in 2014. He has opened with rounds in the 60's five times and only missed the cut once in 2011, which was his first time playing in the API.

"Rounding out the top five in ticket count are Zalatoris, Hovland, Scheffler and Cantlay," O'Dell continued.

Sharp play on some other names is showing up at The Borgata.

"There has been respected money on Cameron Young (+2800), Chris Kirk (+4500) and Nick Taylor (+8000) for First Round Leader," said Gable.

Cantlay is No. 1 on TOUR in Round 1 Scoring Average. Scheffler ranks seventh. Taylor is 11th, Hovland, 13th, and Kirk is 27th. Bradley ranks 96th.

In shifting to the head-to-head matchups market - at Mandalay Bay, Davis noted one pairing that has been popular.

"Best bet matchup so far has been Hovland to beat Xander Schauffele. Not real sharp money - in fact our sharp money this week has been rare at best," Davis analyzed. Not the case however, at The Borgata.

"Andrew Putnam (-145) over C.T. Pan and Collin Morikawa (+125) over Hovland are two matchups that are taking respected money, " said Gable.

Harvesting what information we can from the Prop Farm, it seems my own card this week has both a recreational and a sharp flavor to it. I played Hovland, Burns, Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Bradley outright - and I also played Burns over Cantlay in a head-to-head matchup.

Whatever the case or results may be, we'll all be following along more intently this week with more stars and wagers in play - for a Signature Event honoring The King, Arnold Palmer.

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