Benny and the Bets: Be cognizant of Euros at PGA National

Brace yourself for some more European flags on the PGA TOUR leaderboard this week at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

Led by betting favorite Rory McIlroy (+750 at BetMGM Sportsbook) 28 players are sporting European country flags in the 144-man field and I am getting a strong feeling a handful of them are about to be in the tournament up to their eyeballs.

With the addition of TOUR cards via the Race to Dubai - PGA TOUR Eligibility rankings last season, we were always going to see an uptick of European talent from this season on. The likes of McIlroy and FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland have long been stars on the PGA TOUR but now they are strengthened in depth.

We’ve seen young stars like Ludvig Åberg and Nicolai Højgaard already establish themselves and then others like Matthieu Pavon and Sami Valimaki making the most of their status earned from the DP World Tour as well.

In the last five TOUR events, three of them saw at least three Europeans in the final top 10, including the Farmers Insurance Open where Pavon won ahead of two fellow Europeans in Højgaard (second) and Stephan Jaeger (T3) while Åberg was T9.

Euros held spot Nos. 2, 3 and T4 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and while Jake Knapp stole the show in Mexico last week, Euros were second, T3 and T6.

And when it comes to PGA National’s Champion course where they’ll do battle this week — some nice trends are pointing to the European cause.

There is a seemingly never-ending maze of water hazards at PGA National making this, more than most, a true test of your tee-to-green game. The reality is with 15 of the 18 holes having water hazards to navigate, you’re never too far away from one poor swing leading to a big number.

Eight of the last nine winners here have ranked inside the top 5 of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green on their way to victory with four of them leading the field in the metric. In the years the winner didn’t rank first, those who did were runner-up twice, and never outside the top 11.

Players chasing success this week have to be ready to grind. Routinely one of the tougher venues on TOUR, The Champion course might be a little more gettable this time around, but it will still have teeth.

The former par-4 10th is now a converted par 5, taking the course par to 71. This alone should help the scoring average but the setup has also been changed by shortening the rough a little. Despite this "softening" I still envision Bogey Avoidance being a huge factor.

Players have to find a way to get up and down when they miss greens. Look, it’s not rocket science to say have fewer bogeys and you might end up winning. But at some venues, where birdies are hard to come by, it is even more important.

Chris Kirk was tied for fewest bogeys a year ago on the way to winning, and the last 10 winners average sixth in the metric on the way to victory. Six of the last eight winners were inside the top four of Bogey Avoidance.

And while we saw how tee-to-green game is something to lean on when debating your picks, I’ve also gone a little deeper to see there have been an above-average amount of shots from 175-200 yards at this venue over the last nine years.

As such we will be keeping an eye on players who have an advantage from this distance. It’s something that could be a difference maker in your choices like it was mine.

Outrights

I really loved what I saw from German Stephan Jaeger (+4000) in a final round 65 in Mexico, (not just because he came from behind to beat Emiliano Grillo in the head-to-head matchup I chose in direct contrast to Golfbet colleagues Will Gray and Chris Breece who were riding the Argentine), but because he now has a great recent finish (T3) coming in, to go with his nice T14 in the event a year ago. Jaeger also ranks a respectable 35th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season and is fourth in proximity from 175-200 yards. He led the field in this event in SG: Off-the-Tee in 2023.

Ranking even better this season in SG: Tee-to-Green — in fact the highest-ranked player in this field in terms of this season — is Farmers Insurance Open winner Matthieu Pavon (+4500). He sits third in SG: Tee-to-Green and is also 14th in Bogey Avoidance. The Frenchman leads the FedExCup thanks to three top sevens in his four TOUR starts this year.

And while I usually limit my outright options to two players, I’m going to add a third this week in a nearby resident, but Irishman, Shane Lowry (+3300). He’s made the cut in all six tries but his last two, a runner-up and T5, are the ones I am looking at. At 16th in proximity from 175-200 yards, there is some small love for him statistically. I can also lean on the fact he was first in SG: Tee-to-Green here a year ago. Form this season is average at best in three starts but this is where he turns it around. If outright doesn’t suit you, look to the top 10. Here are some others to consider there.

Place Markets

There are several players at plus money odds for place markets this week that have earned my interest. Keith Mitchell (+350 Top 10) was a pick of mine a week ago in Mexico and while he didn’t cash in the top 10, his T19 finish was still inspiring in terms of what might be to come. A former champ here, Mitchell is also ninth on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Next, I find it hard not to consider last season’s runner-up in Eric Cole (+250 Top 10). A tenacious week resulted in a playoff loss but it also set up a Rookie of the Year season. Cole is 22nd in Bogey Avoidance and 14th in proximity from 175-200 yards.

Two players pop out in the Top 20 market at +175 in Corey Conners and defending champion Chris Kirk. At 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green the Canadian Conners has always been a factor when ball-striking is valued. As for Kirk, he’s a tenacious competitor and already has a win this season at The Sentry. At 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 13th in Bogey Avoidance and 28th in proximity from 175-200 yards I feel this might be the best bet of the week. He’s mentally the type who will look to defend his title with honor.

Longshots

Astute TOUR fans would have noticed Andrew Novak (+12500) finishing T8 in his last two starts. He now ranks sixth on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. Doug Ghim (+6600) pops in SG: Tee-to-Green (5th), proximity from 175-200 yards (30th) and Bogey Avoidance (25th) but he has missed all three cuts here so buyer beware. Carson Young (+12500) is another candidate to keep the longshot season alive given he’s 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Proximity from 175-200 yards.

Rory

I’m going to give the outright favorite his own space here for a quick thought. Although McIlroy is talented enough to blitz this field and has won here before, I’d be holding back on an outright selection at +750 until through the first round to see how he starts. You could consider a First Round Leader play at +1800 as “protection” from a fast start, given he has a 7:40 a.m. ET tee time Thursday, but otherwise hold and see where his play (and odds) stack up from that point forward.

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