Odds Outlook: Rory McIlroy clear betting favorite at PGA National

The traditional Florida Swing begins this week in a familiar place. The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, played on the east coast of Florida since 1972, has a familiar name atop the betting board entering tournament week.

Making his 10th start at PGA National, Rory McIlroy (+750) enters the week as a clear betting favorite according to oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook. The 2012 champion and 2014 playoff runner-up returns for the first time since T59 in 2018. A winner this season already on the DP World Tour, the Jupiter, Florida, resident, like many others in the field, will enjoy warmth, sunshine, and the comfortability of a home game. The cool temperatures in California did not produce a top-20 finish after his return from the Middle East.

Power player Cameron Young (+2000) is next on the board and won’t have much trouble covering the 7,125 yards. Closing with 65 in the final round on his debut in 2022 for T16, the Jupiter resident has cashed T16 at The Riviera Country Club (The Genesis) and T8 at TPC Scottsdale (WM Phoenix Open) in his last two starts on TOUR. Making his 57th start on TOUR, he’s looking for his first win on this demanding driving layout.

South Florida native Eric Cole (+2500) was not intimidated during his first visit to The Champion course last season. Posting four rounds of 67 or better, he tied the tournament scoring record before falling in a playoff to Chris Kirk (+4000). Rarely taking time off, he will be fresh after skipping last week’s event. Cashing T10 at Riviera in his last outing, he has picked up paychecks for T21 or better in five of seven to open the new season. With Bermudagreens averaging 7,000 square feet, the excellent putter will fancy his chances again this season.

In six events this season, J.T. Poston (+2500) has delivered T20 or better five times. Highlighted by three top-10 paydays, “The Postman's” best two results were the first two on Bermudagrass tracks this season (6th Sony Open in Hawaii; T5 The Sentry). Stretching back to last summer, he’s cashed in the top 25 in 12 of his last 15. Making his seventh appearance at PGA National Resort, he will look to improve on his best finish of T27.

The man who started the Bulldogs barking in Palm Beach Gardens, 2014 winner Russell Henley (+2500), was the first of four University of Georgia winners in the last 10 years at this event. More impressively, Bulldog alums have won the last two editions (Kirk and Sepp Straka +5000) and three of the previous five stretching back to Keith Mitchell (+4000). Making his first start since cashing T8-T3 in 2020 and 2021, he will look to extend his run of T24 or better to five straight in the breezes of Palm Beach Gardens. Cashing a T4 at Waialae (Sony Open) in January suggests he’s ready for more Bermudagrass.

Making his 186th start on TOUR, Byeong Hun An (+2800) is looking for his first victory. The Orlando resident won on the west coast of Florida at the LECOM Suncoast Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 to reclaim his place on the PGA TOUR. The last four times he’s played on Bermudagrass, he’s finished second twice, once in a playoff, and T4. Cashing in 10 straight, his form is of zero concern. Teeing it up for the sixth time at PGA National, he will look to add to his two top-10 paychecks.

Tom Kim (+2800) will look to become just the second player, outside of the inaugural event in 2007, to win on debut. The South Korean star, who already has three wins on TOUR, would be the seventh, first-time victor, and fourth in the last seven events at PGA National. Making his 50th start on TOUR, he’s played just two events as a professional in the Sunshine State, finishing T34 at Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational) and T51 at TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS) in 2023.

Signing up for a tee time at PGA National for the first time since 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000) is trying to create momentum he didn’t find on the West Coast Swing. The Englishman, a winner at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in early October on the DP World Tour, picked up T4 at the Hero World Challenge in December and looked to be on his way. Missing the cut twice in five tries this season, his best payday was T14 at The Sentry.

Here's a look at some of the other notable odds this week via BetMGM, including 2020 champion Sungjae Im who is hoping for more success in Palm Beach Gardens:

• +3300: Sungjae Im
• +3500: Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry
• +4000: Chris Kirk (defending champion), Keith Mitchell (2019 winner), Corey Conners, Daniel Berger
• +4500: Denny McCarthy, Matthieu Pavon, Rasmus Hojgaard
• +5000: Beau Hossler, Jake Knapp, Sepp Straka (2022 winner), Stephan Jaeger
• +5500: Adam Svensson, Alex Noren, Luke List, Tom Hoge
• +6600: Akshay Bhatia, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Doug Ghim, Erik van Rooyen, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler (2017 winner), Thorbjorn Olesen, Billy Horschel, Dais Thompson, Taylor Pendrith
• +8000: Gary Woodland, Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard, Maverick McNealy, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Thomas Detry
• +9000: Brandon Wu, Adam Schenk, Chan Kim, Lee Hodges, Ryan Fox
• +10000: Andrew Novak, Austin Eckroat, Ben Griffin, C.T. Pan, Chesson Hadley, Justin Suh, Matt Wallace, Robert MacIntyre, Taylor Montgomery

How it works:

• A field of 144 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes.
• Purse of $9 million, with the winner taking home $1.62 million, plus 500 FedExCup points, an invitation to this year's Masters, THE PLAYERS, and The Sentry in 2025.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses.

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