Golfbet recap: Jake Knapp claims breakthrough win at Mexico Open at Vidanta

It's Knapp time in Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico, and I am not talking about taking a siesta.

PGA TOUR rookie Jake Knapp fought nerves, emotions and his worst round of the tournament on Sunday, playing well enough to hold off Sami Valimaki and win the Mexico Open at Vidanta by two shots.

A three-time winner on PGA TOUR Americas, Knapp played in 58 Korn Ferry Tour events between 2020 and 2023 without a victory. In his fifth-ever PGA TOUR start, he changed his life, shooting an even-par round on Sunday to finish at 19-under and capture the title.

It was anything but "Knapp time" early in the round. Going off at +4000 pre-tournament at BetMGM Sportsbook, Knapp held a four-shot lead going into Sunday and was now trading at -400 to win it outright. This is a guy who was basically leading the entire field in everything involving ball striking: Off-the-Tee, Approach, Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation. You name it, Knapp was owning it.

Jake Knapp odds to win Mexico Open at Vidanta (via BetMGM):

• Pre-tournament: +4000
• Entering Round 2 (trailed by 4): +2800
• Entering Round 3 (co-leader): +360
• Entering Round 4 (led by 4): -400

He then bogeyed two of his first three holes on Sunday, pulling his tee shot into the water on No. 3. At that point, his lead was cut to two shots and he was now -150 to win the tournament. Sami Valimaki, another TOUR rookie, also seeking his first win, tied it up at 18-under on the seventh hole with an eagle and was actually made the in-game favorite at that point at +100. Valimaki returned the favor though, with his tee ball finding the water three holes later on No. 10.

Knapp seemed to calm down a bit despite still missing fairways and greens. Through 14 holes he was back out to a two-shot lead and was able to get the horse to the barn from there. In Sunday's final round, Knapp hit only nine of 18 greens and only two of 13 fairways. His scrambling wasn't anything special for the first three days but it saved him on Sunday, as he was able to get up and down on seven of nine occasions.

Pre-tournament outright picks from Golfbet Experts:

• Ben Everill: Tony Finau (+750) T13
• Will Gray: Jhonattan Vegas (+5500) T60
• Chris Breece: Keith Mitchell (+2800) T19
• Matt DelVecchio: Thomas Detry (+2500) MC
• Rob Bolton: Tony Finau (+750) T13
• Mike Glasscott: Tony Finau (+750) T13

Knapp became the third first-time winner on TOUR this season, and at +4000 he is now the shortest-priced player (pre-tournament) to win through eight events this year.

The win pays Knapp nearly $1.5 million. It also pays to pay attention here at GolfBet, as in our Friday Draws & Fades column we correctly tipped Knapp at the halfway point as well as calling for a top-15 finish for the defending champion, Tony Finau.

Knapp now joins Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry as the international contingent that leads the way into the Florida Swing kicking off next week on TOUR with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.

The Champions Course at PGA National will provide a stern test, known for the closing stretch of holes known as the “Bear Trap.” A course that measures less than 7,200 yards tends to play much longer in practice due to the winds that always seem to affect this event. One handicapping angle I will be looking at as we shift to the East Coast this week is how some of the players in this field have fared at The Open Championship. Over the years, we have seen some crossover success between the two events. Former winners here who have also hoisted a claret jug include Ernie Els, Padraig Harrington and McIlroy. Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler are two other former winners who have also seen great success at The Open. A winner at Royal Portrush in 2019, Lowry has finished fifth and runner-up here in Palm Beach Gardens the last two seasons.

Rob Bolton's Sleeper Picks and Golfbet Insider results:

• Scott Stallings to win (+8000) MC
• Mackenzie Hughes Top 5 (+850) MC
• Alejandro Tosti Top 10 (+500) MC
• Jhonattan Vegas Top 20 (+225) T60
• Ryan Brehm Top 40 (+450) MC
• Raul Pereda Top 40 (+750) MC
• Taylor Pendrith Top 20 (+125) MC
• Keith Mitchell, Thorbjorn Olesen, Patrick Rodgers all make the cut (+130) T19, T46, T6
• Rafael Campos Top 40 (+160) T38
• Cameron Champ to miss the cut (+150) T24
• Pierceson Coody Top 40 (+240) WD
• Cristobal Del Solar Top 40 (+150) T48
• Tony Finau in final group in final round (+400) T13
• Chesson Hadley Top 40 (+100) T24
• S.H. Kim Top Asian (+300) MC
• Carl Yuan Top 40 (+125) T52

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