Odds Outlook: Defending champ Tony Finau pacing field at Mexico Open at Vidanta

The PGA TOUR heads south of the border for an early spring break trip for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Located on the Pacific Coast, Vidanta Vallarta will host for the third consecutive year.

The winner of the 63rd Mexico Open at Vidanta returns to defend his title. Tony Finau (+700 at BetMGM Sportsbook), who finished second on debut in 2022, will look to add to his 40-under aggregate over eight rounds. The highest-ranked player from the Official World Golf Ranking this week at No. 24 will take advantage of the four par-5 holes and five par-3 holes on this par-71 (7,456 yards) resort course. Sitting at the top of the BetMGM board, he is just one of three players in the field who played at The Genesis Invitational last week in Los Angeles.

Nicolai Højgaard (+1800) enters the week on a run of 13 consecutive cuts made worldwide. One of four players in the Official World Golf Ranking top 50 entered this week, the Dane checks in at No. 34 and has a win and two seconds in his last seven worldwide starts since November. The last time he was on the podium, he devoured the almost 7,800 yards at Torrey Pines (South Course) for a solo second. Making his second appearance, he will look to improve on T33 from last year.

Emiliano Grillo (+2000) makes his third consecutive appearance at the Mexico Open. Picking up his first victory since his rookie season last year at Colonial (Charles Schwab Challenge), the Argentine will look to improve on his T5 showing here from 2023. Entering the week on five consecutive events cashing a check, his run of T22 or better finishes cooled off last week with T44 at The Riviera Country Club.

The event was played at the end of April/beginning of May in the first two editions but now moves to February for the first time. Excellent scoring conditions are on the agenda as sunshine and temperatures in the mid-80s and light coastal breezes are on the menu for the four tournament days. Belgian Thomas Detry (+2500) has proven his game travels on the Paspalum surfaces in warm, breezy conditions. Cashing in the top 25 twice at Mayakoba and Corales Puntacana in the last three years, he will look to add to his current streak of T28-T4-T20 over his last three starts on TOUR.

Stephan Jaeger (+2500) continues the European theme at the top of the board this week. Missing the cut only three times worldwide in the last calendar year, the German will look to add to his T18-T15 haul at Vidanta Vallarta. Cashing T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open, the best result in his PGA TOUR career, he followed with a missed cut at cold, wet, and windy Pebble Beach. The sunshine and warm air will be a welcome relief to all who have fought with Mother Nature over the last month.

Keith Mitchell (+2500) posted his best result of the new season at the shootout in the Coachella Valley at PGA WEST (The American Express). Cashing T9 after closing with 66-62, the ball-striker added four more rounds in the 60s in his last outing at TPC Scottsdale for T17 (WM Phoenix Open). Making his tournament debut at the resort course, which has played under par in the first two editions, he should quickly pick up the nuances and green speed.

Here's a look at the rest of the board as the TOUR gets set for another international event (odds via BetMGM):

• +3300: Mark Hubbard, Davis Thompson, Erik van Rooyen, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith, Thorbjorn Olesen, Brandon Wu
• +3500: Ryan Fox
• +4000: Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim
• +4500: Jake Knapp, Ryo Hisatsune
• +5000: Michael Kim, Austin Eckroat, Chesson Hadley, Justin Suh
• +5500: Mackenzie Hughes
• +6000: Cameron Champ
• +6600: Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Charley Hoffman, K.H. Lee, Maverick McNealy, Nate Lashley, Andrew Novak, Carson Young, Chan Kim, Greyson Sigg, Scott Stallings, S.H. Kim, Jhonattan Vegas
• +8000: Joseph Bramlett, Alex Smalley, J.J. Spaun, Matt Wallace, Sam Stevens, Vincent Norrman
• +9000: Ben Kohles, Dylan Wu
• +10000: Tyler Duncan, Sami Valimaki, Aaron Baddeley, Chandler Phillips, Chris Gotterup, Harry Hall, Jorge Campillo, Patton Kizzire, Ryan Palmer, Victor Perez, Vince Whaley

How it works:

• A field of 132 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties.
• Purse of $8.1 million, with the winner taking home $1.5 million, plus 500 FedExCup points, an invitation to the Masters, THE PLAYERS, and The Sentry next season (2025).
• Every winner in 2024 has been +5500 or higher pre-tournament.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses.

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