Golfbet Insider: Tiger Woods returns to action at The Genesis Invitational

When was the first time you bet on Tiger Woods?

Whether it was to win a major early in his career, take down a TOUR title at his peak, or a top-finish placement market more recently, there’s always a story when it comes to Woods. In the betting realm, you’re always looking for positive reinforcement – for results to back up the process. And while cashing a Cameron Young Top 10 ticket can provide that, it pales in comparison to the memories that cashing a Woods ticket evokes.

Enter this week’s The Genesis Invitational, the first official TOUR start for Woods since the Masters Tournament 10 months ago. Even amid a 70-man field, there is a bevy of options for getting some action down on the tournament host.

So whether you’re an experienced bettor or a novice new to the topic, there’s always a certain buzz whenever Woods is an option on the betting board. That will certainly be the case this week, but the key question remains: what is the appropriate mix of optimism and betting value?

I share my thoughts below on the tournament host – along with a few other notables in the limited field.

Pull Quote

Nick Taylor (+100 = Top 30 via BetMGM Sportsbook) … With his win in a playoff on Sunday at TPC Scottsdale, he flashed more flair for the dramatic and proved that the 35-year-old Canadian is made for the moment. An entire country never will forget where it was when he prevailed in a playoff at his national open last summer, and the tournament modified its 2024 logo in tribute to his historic accomplishment. Special stuff.

As he resets for The Genesis, the dynamic of having been there and done that is encouraging. He knows how to respond after the din has died.

“This is one of my favorite stops,” Taylor told the media at Riviera on Tuesday. “For me, the next day and a half [or] two days until we start is kind of keep my energy up, conserve. I'm not going to do a whole lot today but tomorrow it will be nice to see the golf course the day before and from there just kind of ride the momentum.”

My take: First, many golfers will echo the same affinity for the near-100-year-old layout a mile from the Pacific Ocean, so that’s not surprising, but it does reinforce what we hope in every investment at every stop, so when it’s vocalized, it resonates.

He also competed the very next week following each of his first three PGA TOUR titles but had virtually nothing to show for it. His only payday was a T56 after his breakthrough at the Sanderson Farms Championship in November of 2014, but the U.S. Open followed immediately on the heels of the 2023 Putt of the Year at the RBC Canadian Open, so it’d be unwise and unfair to cast any judgment on that specifically.

Taylor has logged 28 rounds across eight starts at Riviera. He’d connected for a pair of top 30s. While all of that experience is invaluable, he’s in his prime and playing like it. To double your investment for this finish deserves at least a full unit.

Power Rankings Wild Card

Jordan Spieth (-135 = Top 20) … And even then, I’m not inspired. I’ve been doing a good job of keeping recommendations at even or plus money, but consternation over his omission from the Power Rankings demanded a response.

With a solo third at The Sentry and a T6 at the WM Phoenix Open, he’s off to a strong start in 2024. Because the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was truncated to 54 holes, I’m all but dismissing forgettable finishes like his (T39) not unlike how poor results in majors can be overlooked due to the heightened variables. They aren’t normal weeks and they’re not for everyone, so it’s smart not to get caught up in the negative.

If before the season started, you were going to rank Spieth’s first four stops in terms of greatest value, Riviera would slot last. He managed only one top 25 in the last five editions (T15, 2021) and it exposes his inconsistencies more than other tracks. In that same vein, his sparkling finishes early this year align with recent performances in those tournaments.

So, he’s not entirely a trap, but be careful. Drop into a top 30 for (-225) if you want, but it’d be more impactful to spread units elsewhere.

Tap-Ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• Emiliano Grillo (+200 = Top 20)
• Tom Hoge (+220 = Top 20)
• Luke List (+110 = Top 30)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+450 = Top Asian)
• Taylor Moore (+125 = Top 30)

Returning to Competition

Tiger Woods (+130 = Top 30) … Although you can bet on him to make or miss the cut, both options are shorter than even. It’s more fun to devote a fraction of a unit on him when there’s plus-money value attached for a middle-of-the-road finish after the cut. He technically returned to competition at the Hero World Challenge over two months ago, but The Genesis is his first start contributing to the FedExCup since the Masters 10 months ago. As for his last top-30 finish on the PGA TOUR, you’d need to turn the clock back to late January 2020 when he placed T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Notable WDs

Matthieu Pavon … The early clubhouse leader for the Arnold Palmer Award as the Rookie of the Year likely will occupy that position for the foreseeable future. He’s already 4-for-4 with three top 10s, the loudest of which was a breakthrough victory at the Farmers Insurance Open that vaulted him into all of the Signature Events. He finished third as one of the last into the field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am before opting for at least two consecutive weeks off. Sits atop the FedExCup standings and leads the TOUR in adjusted scoring.

Justin Rose … Has two top 10s and another pair of top 20s in 13 appearances at Riviera but the most recent was seven years ago, and he’s returned only twice since. With Signature Events promised throughout 2024 and without the requirement to play them (as opposed to the mandate for all but one Signature Event in 2023), this is sensible timing to rest. He’s 39th in the FedExCup.

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