Benny & The Bets: Beware of Tiger — and Homa — traps at Riviera

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – I would love to see Tiger Woods find his way into the mix at The Genesis Invitational, but I don’t think he will.

That’s not exactly a hot take these days. But maybe this is ... I’m not expecting Max Homa to be banging down the door for another victory at his favorite TOUR stop, either.

The West Coast Swing hits its traditional endpoint at The Riviera Country Club and we get the added bonus of seeing tournament host Woods on TOUR for the first time this season. Every time he tees it up it still brings with it nostalgic hope from those of us who lived through his prime and even those who didn’t but hope to see glimpses of it.

But when we look at Woods’ return through a betting lens, we have to be very cautious indeed.

It’s easy to get caught up in the hype. This is arguably the greatest golfer ever with his 82 PGA TOUR win resume. He is certainly one of the absolute elite athletes from any sport.

So, when you see a +12500 at BetMGM Sportsbook next to the name of the player who has produced numerous iconic, generational moments … the instinct can be to take it. But of course, it seems folly in reality.

Woods hasn’t played since his Hero World Challenge, where he was 18th of 20 players, and the PNC Championship with son Charlie in December where they were T5.

He has never won at Riviera in 14 tournament attempts, with the last of his three top 10s coming 20 years ago in 2004.

Woods is +2000 for a top-5, +800 for a top-10, +333 for a top-20 and +130 for a top-30 in the 70-man Signature Event field.

As much as I’d love to see it – after witnessing a practice round on Tuesday – I can’t advocate for it. Woods looked rusty, as can be expected, and missed both ways. He also appeared a little labored at the end of nine holes.

I want to be wrong – and perhaps when more prop markets come out, we can find a better place to bet on his efforts – but I can’t see him in the top half of this field.

As for Homa? Well, the +1800 on him feels like odds based on history alone and not current form.

The California king, who boasts four of his six PGA TOUR wins here in his home state, has made no secret of his love for this tournament. Since 2020 Homa’s results have read T5-1-T10-2 at Riviera and his postmortem interview after finishing just short last year was super emotional stuff.

“When I won in '21, nobody was here (COVID) and it hurts me not to be able to do that with everyone here, my family and friends. But I tried, man,” Homa said through tears.

“Sorry, this tournament just means a lot to me," he continued. "It's like an emotional release. But yeah, the support I get here is so cool. I'm going to win it again and be able to do it in front of all these people.”

And the truth is… I believe him. But I just don’t think it will be this year.

Homa has not been playing to his recent high standards of late. A T14 at The Sentry was followed by a T13 in his Farmers Insurance Open title defense. Not awful, but far from great all the same.

Since then, he’s posted a T66 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open.

The 33-year-old has really struggled on the greens, dropping from a season rank last year of sixth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting to a distant 132nd. He is currently losing 0.384 strokes per round on the putting surface.

Other worrying signs are noticeable dips in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and scoring average.

So while every man and his dog seem to be on the Homa train, I’ll be taking a risk and looking elsewhere.

Before we do that – here are some key stats from recent winners.

Driving accuracy is less important here than most weeks on TOUR, with the lean instead to Driving Distance when it comes to the tee-to-green combination.

Seven of the last 10 winners were inside the top 12 in Driving Distance – All Drives for the week, and all of them were inside the top 28.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green is still a great identifying metric as seven of the last eight winners have slotted inside the top five of this stat.

And the ability to get up and down from the Kikuyu is paramount, with seven of the last eight winners all ranking inside the top nine in Bogey Avoidance.

It helps to have some success putting on Poa annua surfaces as well should you want to put yourself in position for a trophy. This means ranking well in Three Putt Avoidance, something easier said than done late in the days on bumpy poa.

The last 10 winners have combined for just nine three-putts over their 72 holes. Eight of them had zero, or just one, three-putt for the week.

Outrights

So that brings us to who I do think has a chance to win. I’ll start with a two-time champion who is also a two-time runner up in veteran Adam Scott (+3300). He perhaps knows Riviera better than anyone in the field and is coming off a top 10 in Phoenix.

Scott currently ranks sixth on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, hits the ball plenty long enough, and has a history of putting well at the course. While the Australian has garnered a reputation for not being one of the strongest putters, he has routinely gained strokes on the field on the Riviera greens.

“It's always a highlight of my year playing here. I love this track and I love this event. I'm lucky enough to have won it twice and it's my favorite event I play on TOUR,” Scott said Tuesday.

“I don't think too many people would argue that it's a great designed golf course, but there are other things to me. Obviously, I've played nicely here, so I have good feelings about that. I have feelings like I'm in Australia when I play the 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th holes. The eucalyptus trees kind of smell like it does in Australia, the grass is similar, the weather can be similar as well… I just have this certain level of comfort.”

Another to consider is Sahith Theegala (+2800) after he contended in Phoenix despite being on the tough side of the draw. He was T6 at Riviera a year ago and the weakness of his game, keeping it straight off the tee, may be less of an issue this week if he pumps it long enough.

Place Markets

This is where I am going to look at the bank builder options out of the chalk in the tournament. It’s a terrible number at -200 for a top 10 but you can expect tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler to be in the mix.

His putting has been diabolical again, costing him a third straight WM Phoenix Open last week when he couldn’t find the hole down the stretch. But with his tee-to-green game being exceptional, he will contend most weeks and becomes a near auto-pick for a place.

The +150 for Patrick Cantlay for a top 10 is another bank-building option. He’s gained 1.736 strokes per round on the field in the last five years at Riviera and was third a year ago.

Longshots

Six weeks. Six longshot winners on the PGA TOUR. We were able to pinpoint Nick Taylor here last week, so let’s try to find another potential winner at high odds.

It’s not triple digits but the +5500 for Nicolai Højgaard jumped out right away. The European Ryder Cup star already has a runner-up this season at the Farmers Insurance Open and in his short time frame ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th Tee-to-Green.

As for a triple-digit option, how about South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +10000. While I am concerned at his lack of distance compared to others, he still ranks 35th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season and can often get a hot putter.

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