Golfbet Insider: WM Phoenix Open

While the rain in the Phoenix metro area this week provides a rare and valuable opportunity for teenagers to learn how to drive in it – seriously, months can elapse without the kind of moisture that creates this kind of testing ground in these climes – everyone with the intent for an A+ on the betting card would be wise to follow suit.

Because of the rain, TPC Scottsdale will play wider and longer than it usually does, and that, altogether now, favors the driver.

These conditions are not unprecedented in this tournament. In fact, similar weather soaked the property in Tiger Woods’ last appearance in 2015. He missed the cut that week but you may remember him more for joking with the media that he was answering questions so that he wouldn’t get fined à la Marshawn Lynch at Super Bowl Media Day earlier that same week.

The final leaderboard in 2015 was loaded with guys who could send it. Now, that’s hardly unusual just about everywhere where there’s some distance – TPC Scottsdale tips at 7,261 yards – but it fulfilled the expectation, nonetheless.

DFSers are advised to stack this skill set, but bettors don’t need to narrow the scope as much.

The Stadium Course will stretch but greens will be receptive, so longer irons will stick. Sharpshooters still play up on what Tom Weiskopf retuned as a fair and consistent test for all talents and conditions ahead of the 2015 edition. So, sprinkle the minority of your units on lighter-hitting veterans with course experience. This is where you’ll connect with some impact down the board.

Pull quote

Kevin Yu (+280 = Top 20) … It’s an annual consideration for fantasy gamers who review long-range planning, so if you allow yourself a moment to understand how the macro can influence the micro, he’s part of a subset of talent that might pay off more often than you’d consider every other year.

See, both the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition in Paris and the Presidents Cup in Montreal will be contested inside a two-month window this summer and early fall. The 25-year-old from Chinese Taipei currently sits atop the ranking from his homeland for the former, while he still has work to do if he’s going to be in consideration for the latter. The moral of the matter is that this is an additional target and focus for international talent.

“It’s amazing to think about,” Yu said during his meeting with the media at TPC Scottsdale on Tuesday. “I have a good chance to get in [the Olympics]. I’m looking forward to it, and it would be cool to represent Taiwan again.”

Yu was alluding to the 2014 Asian Games in which he won the bronze medal and fellow countryman C.T. Pan won gold. (Pan won bronze at the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo.) Yu and Pan currently sit a respective first and second from Chinese Taipei in the Official World Golf Ranking that will determine the field in Paris.

My take: First, the macro.

Bubble boys for either competition have proven to play more often so as to achieve the objective of qualifying for the special events. In 2024, many are promised a strong foundation of a schedule via Signature Events. Yu isn’t among them, although he climbed into last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as a member of the first class of the Aon Swing 5. Should he retain position – he’s currently fourth – he’ll be in the field at The Genesis Invitational next week.

Therein lies the value of the micro. With a T3 at The American Express and a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open, he’s suddenly a threat everywhere, now and later. Toss in that he’s a product of nearby Arizona State University and has intrinsic knowledge of TPC Scottsdale in his tournament debut, and this prop is too attractive to ignore.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

Power Rankings wild card

Rickie Fowler (+200 = Top 20) … His emotional playoff loss in 2016 and redemption of a victory in 2019 have illustrated how much this tournament means to him, so it’s worth setting aside your usual analytics for the feel-good narrative, and especially for a result that he’s yielded seven times previously at TPC Scottsdale. His slump from 2020-2022 coincided with his larger lull, but he resurfaced for a T10 last year. Until a month ago, he’d have been much shorter than to double your kickback, so take your shot at his upswing where it’s personal. Oddly, the third round has been his bane thus far in 2024, with rounds of 75, 76 and 73 in his first three starts, respectively, so in a sense, that’s your only worry.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im and Sahith Theegala (+140 = All to Make the Cut)
• Akshay Bhatia (+230 = Top 20)
• Lucas Glover (+125 = Top 40)
• Chesson Hadley (+138 = Top 40)
• Brian Harman (+225 = Top 20)
• K.H. Lee (+150 = Top 40)
• Sam Ryder (+150 = Top 40)
• Adam Scott (+188 = Top 20)
• Scott Stallings (+150 = Top 40)
• Jhonattan Vegas (+210 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Bud Cauley … Kinda sorta, but yes! This is his first PGA TOUR action in three years and five months due to complications and extensive recovery dating back to serious injuries suffered in an automobile crash in mid-2018, but he logged a pair of starts on the Korn Ferry Tour in January, finishing inside the top 35 in both. Eschewing the allotted three additional rehab starts for which he’s eligible, he’s back in the big leagues and at a stop that has been good to him, with three top 30s among five paydays in six tries. If the 33-year-old is available in your full-season format, consider swapping out dead weight in favor of the former can’t-miss prospect. He has a full slate of 27 starts via a Major Medical Extension to go to work for you.

Notable WDS

Viktor Hovland … Virtually silent launching into 2024, he’s opted to rest and regroup ahead of The Genesis Invitational. He’s just 1-for-3 with a T42 (2023) at TPC Scottsdale, so he wouldn’t have been a popular choice in any gaming situations, anyway.

Xander Schauffele … He’s pegged it at TPC Scottsdale every year he’s qualified, so this would’ve been his seventh consecutive appearance. With a pair of podium finishes and nothing worse than a T17, he’d have appeared prominently in the Power Rankings as well. Instead, it goes into the books as the first time he hasn’t appeared either in a tournament to which he’s committed or automatically qualified. He’s been busy, though, so this grants him a blow in between Signature Events. It promises to be his only week off of five in a row.

Patrick Rodgers … Another early exit among the contingent who never has missed a start when exempt for the WM Phoenix Open – all three of his paydays in eight appearances were top 20s – but as one of the dozens exempt into all Signature Events, schedule management is key. Look for him again next week at Riviera Country Club.

Davis Riley … Finally taking a week off, although he’s had too many weekends offs already, and that doesn’t count the canceled final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he finished 78th (of 80). Still chasing his first top 25 since teaming with Nick Hardy to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last April.

Kevin Streelman … Given that he’s missing his adopted hometown stop for the first time since his membership debut in 2009, the injury he suffered in his lower back during the second round of the Farmers Insurance Open must’ve been a doozie. Of course, body parts heal slower for all 45-year-olds, even those who are professional athletes, and the season just started, so mitigating the damage is top priority right now.

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