Benny and the Bets: Trends, eye test both point toward big week for Justin Thomas

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Sometimes all signs point one way. And this week the neon signs are blinking hard and bright with one name.

You might think that name is Scottie Scheffler. And that’s understandable. The WM Phoenix Open has been Scheffler’s world the last two seasons. His incredible run of form has taken him to world No. 1, but it all started with his drought-breaking victory at TPC Scottsdale in 2022.

Scheffler returned to defend in 2023 and is now the hot +500 favorite with BetMGM Sportsbook to make it a historic three-peat. But I smell another major champion getting in the way: Justin Thomas.

Thomas’ struggles in 2023 have been well-documented. He failed to finish inside the top 70 of the FedExCup and missed the FedExCup Playoffs. It even placed his appearance in this seasons Signature Events in jeopardy before he found his way into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am via his world ranking.

Despite his woes he was chosen for the U.S. Ryder Cup team, a selection that could be the making of his comeback.

Many times in the past, former world No. 1 Adam Scott has spoken of how being selected for the 2009 International Presidents Cup team, after a down season, was the confidence boost he needed to return his game to its peak. In fact, he parlayed it into the best four years of his career, winning the Masters and getting to the top of the world.

Thomas is looking for a similar scenario.

“It definitely gave me a confidence boost,” Thomas said. “It was more of a relief for me like mentally and emotionally than anything, but talking to the guys, whether it was at the practice session or that week and kind of hearing how the conversations went, there were just things that guys told me in their confidence in me that they didn't need to tell me but was very nice of them that definitely made me feel a lot better about the situation.”

He admitted the mental mind melt it all caused was a big part of his issues.

“It was unbelievable the amount of relief that I had playing in Napa (after being picked) versus when I played in Minnesota and Wyndham and the rest of the season. I knew I was thinking about it, but I didn't realize how much it was consuming my life,” he said.

“It's wild. It clearly was a problem. There were other issues, but I just was trying so hard to make that team and to play well to where I earned that spot on the team. I've never been picked, and I didn't want to have to be picked. I wanted to qualify. Then I wasn't playing well, and I'm like, now I really have to earn my pick.”

Now all the mental anguish is dissipating.

“I feel like I'm playing well. I feel like things are continuing to trend in the right direction,” Thomas added. “Back at a place I really enjoy, and feel like I've had a couple chances to win in the past… I’m looking forward to a good week.”

The form suggests he should have a good week. In his two starts this season Thomas was T3 at The American Express and T6 at the shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. All seven rounds have been in the 60s.

But don’t just let one eye test tell you he’s turned a corner. When it comes to key stats at the WM Phoenix Open, three pop out to me.

Of the last nine winners, six have finished the week ranked either first or second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and none of the winners have ranked outside the top 19. It’s a small sample size, but Thomas ranks first this season thus far.

In similar vein, six of the last seven champions have ranked T6 or better in Ball-Striking at TPC Scottsdale. It’s hard to recover from water and some of the desert lies can get really tough, so players must keep it in play if they are to produce here. Justin Thomas ranks first so far this season.

How about the fact the last nine winners have finished inside the top six in Par Breakers, with seven of the last eight at T3 or better. You have to go low, get aggressive and score if you want to be in the mix on Sunday. Thomas ranks second so far this season.

Now let’s see how Thomas fits into current WM Phoenix Open trends.

We already know he fits the first. Current form has proven important with 12 of the last 13 winners having a T7 or better in their previous five starts before victory. Thomas has two top-6 results this season.

And another… the last eight champions at the event had previously recorded at least one top-10 at the WM Phoenix Open prior to winning. Thomas’ last five starts at the WMPO read 4-8-13-3-3.

Outrights

Clearly, I’m advocating the +1000 on Thomas for all the reasons above. If you want to go further down the board the +3300 on Sahith Theegala is eye-catching. The winner last fall at the Fortinet Championship had a near miss at TPC Scottsdale a few years ago and has the firepower and finesse to beat this venue.

Place Markets

If ever there was a personality to fit the WM Phoenix Open and its crazy crowds and hoopla it’s young Australian Min Woo Lee. A budding star both on the golf course and in the social media realm I can see Lee “cooking” this week in Phoenix. While he doesn’t have experience at the venue he will revel in the crowd and the +320 for a Top-10 is something to certainly consider.

Lee is a potential International Team member for the Presidents Cup later this year and so too is Canadian Adam Hadwin who is +180 for a Top-20 this week. The local transplant resident already has a T6 from The American Express this season and his T10 at TPC Scottsdale last year puts him inside the finishing trends we talked about earlier. While his Tee-to-Green game needs to lift, the fact he’s sixth in birdie average is nice to see.

Longshots

Five straight weeks we’ve had triple digit odds winners on the PGA TOUR so we have to give some more options to keep the streak alive.

A year ago, Nick Taylor (+10000) looked set to cause an upset and take down a star-studded leaderboard only to have to settle for runner up. It was an outlier for Taylor on this course but he went on to win the RBC Canadian Open later in the year. Perhaps this is a new man and history prior in less consequential.

Another name that pops here is Daniel Berger (+10000). Sure, he’s on the comeback trail from injury but he boasts four top-11 finishes at TPC Scottsdale and it won’t be long before the former Ryder Cupper finds his groove. When that happens, you won’t sniff odds like these again on the four-time PGA TOUR winner.

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