Odds Outlook: Recent winner Rory McIlroy favored over Scottie Scheffler at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The PGA TOUR is cruising up the California coast to the Monterey Peninsula and for the third consecutive week in the Golden State, provides the first mainland Signature Event of the season at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the second of eight Signature Events on the calendar, features a field of 80 top players on TOUR.

As far back as 1947, Bing Crosby’s Clambake featured the annual gathering of celebrities and the stars of the golfing world. The familiar three-course rotation will be reduced this year to Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course for this no-cut edition.

The pro-am portion of the Signature Event will conclude after the first two rounds. The professionals will play the final two rounds at Pebble Beach to determine the winner.

Fresh off a blazing start to the new year with a T2 and win in Dubai, seeing Rory McIlroy (+800 at BetMGM Sportsbook) at the top of the board this week is hardly surprising. After faltering down the stretch in the season opener (T2), the Ulsterman closed 63-70 two weeks ago to pick up his second worldwide win since June. Missing the cut in the 2018 edition of this event, he returned for T9 at the 2019 U.S. Open in his only other official visit to the property. Wind, rain and temperatures in the mid-50s might have a better chance of slowing him down on Pebble Beach Golf Links than the par 72, playing 6,972 yards.

It is news when the Official World Golf Ranking No. 1 player does not sit at the top of the Odds Outlook. Scottie Scheffler (+850) closed 2023 with a victory at the Hero World Challenge but has been quiet, for his standards, to start 2024. A quiet putter kept him from chasing down Chris Kirk (+6600) at The Sentry (T5). The desert of La Quinta produced his third payday (T17) in his last six events outside the top 15. Making his first start at the pro-am, the Texan missed the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open.

Viktor Hovland (+1200) will provide the warmest historical blanket from the top three choices. The Norwegian star officially introduced himself to the world of golf, winning the U.S. Amateur over this two-course layout in 2018. Spyglass Hill, tipping at 7,047 yards and playing to par 72, is the longer of the two tracks for 2024. Returning for the 2019 U.S. Open as the reigning amateur champ, he signed for T12. Never missing the cut in two starts since turning professional, he’s never eclipsed T13. Closing 2023 with five consecutive top-10 paydays, including two wins to close out the FedExCup Playoffs, he signed for T22 at The Sentry to start the month.

After a quiet post-Ryder Cup fall, Xander Schauffele (+1400) recharged his battery and profited early in 2024. Picking up top-10 paydays in his first three starts, the Californian led the field last week in SG: Off the Tee and Tee-to-Green. Remarkably, he was almost dead last in SG: Putting. Making only his third appearance at Pebble Beach and just second at the Pro-Am (T66, 2017), he will look to add to his podium finish of T3 at the 2019 U.S. Open.

Jordan Spieth (+1800) is no stranger to the weekends where the surf meets the turf. Never missing a cut in 11 previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am starts, the 2017 champ has produced podium paydays twice in the last three seasons. Spectacular in the breeze and stunning with the short game, this canvas on the Pacific Ocean fits this artist. Cashing solo third at The Sentry and solo sixth at the Hero World Challenge in late 2023, his form and a windy, rainy forecast suggest he will be in the fight again this week.

Max Homa (+1800) extended his streak of top 15 paydays to 11 straight after cashing T13 in his defense last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. The Californian will have another daily dose of four par-5 holes to roast and rack up more par breakers. The winner late last year in South Africa on the DP World Tour will be one of many with Cal or Stanford ties in the field this week. Cashing T7-T14-T10 in his last three on 17 Mile Drive, Homa returns for the first time since the 2021 edition.

After disappointing Sunday performances in the La Quinta desert at The American Express (76) and Torrey Pines (75) over the last two weeks, Patrick Cantlay (+2000) will look to rebound this week. One of the best on TOUR tee-to-green, he ranked 57th last week. The putter didn’t cooperate either, as he rated 75th of the 79 players who made the cut. Following paydays of T3 in 2021 and T4 in 2022, the California native, who recorded T21 at the 2019 U.S. Open, did not enter last year.

Collin Morikawa (+2200) is looking to rebound after he broke his streak of three consecutive top-10 paydays last week in San Diego. A pair of double bogeys on the South Course in Round 2 saw him fall one shot short of playing the weekend for the first time in eight events worldwide. Entering this event for the first time, the former Cal Bear played the U.S. Amateur here in 2018 and cashed T35 in the 2019 U.S. Open in his second start as a professional.

Knowing he would qualify this week via the OWGR (No. 26), the red-hot Justin Thomas (+2200) removed himself from the field last week in San Diego. Riding a heater of four consecutive top-five finishes worldwide, the former Alabama Crimson Tide player returns to the Pro-Am for just the second time and first since 2014, a year after he turned professional. After missing the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open, he does not possess much experience in this part of the world. Watching his fellow Crimson Tide alum, Nick Dunlap (+8000) make history and win from the final group at The American Express, he should be geared up for another big finish.

After two quiet outings in Hawaii, Ludvig Åberg (+2500) was back on song with the tee-to-green game in the big ballpark of Torrey Pines South last week. Finishing in a share of ninth place, the Swede struggled around the greens, but that shouldn’t be the case this week with rough geared for two rounds of Pro-Am competition. The Monterey Peninsula does not provide a place to grip-it-and-rip-it, but the Swede already has demonstrated his course management skills by winning at the Plantation Course on Sea Island last fall.

Here's a look at odds via BetMGM for the rest of the limited field, with opening-round play set to begin Thursday along the coast:

• +2800: Tony Finau
• +3300: Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im
• +4000: Nicolai Hojgaard, Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day
• +4500: Russell Henley
• +5000: Adam Scott, Beau Hossler, Byeong Hun An, Hideki Matsuyama, J.T. Poston
• +6000: Eric Cole
• +6600: Denny McCarthy, Justin Rose (defending champ), Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Kevin Yu, Stephan Jaeger, Wyndham Clark
• +8000: Adam Hadwin, Corey Conners, Alex Noren, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Patrick Rodgers, Rickie Fowler, Sepp Straka, Si Woo Kim, Taylor Montgomery
• +9000: Brendon Todd, Cam Davis, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Keith Mitchell, Nick Taylor (2020 winner)
• +10000: Andrew Putnam, Emiliano Grillo, Harris English, Luke List, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge (2022 winner)
• +12500: Adam Schenk, Adam Svensson, Ben Griffin, Erik van Rooyen, Kurt Kitayama, Lucas Glover, Mackenzie Hughes
• +15000: Brandon Wu, J.J. Spaun, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Moore
• +17500: Alex Smalley, Mark Hubbard, Matt Kuchar
• +20000: Nick Hardy, S.H. Kim, Sam Ryder
• +22500: Grayson Murray
• +30000: Lee Hodges, Seamus Power, Webb Simpson
• +35000: Davis Riley, Peter Malnati

How it works:

• A field of 80 players will play 18 holes at Pebble Beach Golf Links and the Spyglass Hill GC with amateur partners to decide the Pro-Am portion of the event.
• All 80 players (no cut) will play the final two rounds without amateur partners on Pebble Beach to determine the champion.
• Purse of $20 million, with the winner taking home $3.6 million, plus 700 FedExCup points, an invitation to the Masters, THE PLAYERS, and the 2025 Sentry.
• There are alternates available this week. Stay posted here.
• The streak of TRIPLE-DIGIT winners extended to four consecutive events last week after Matthieu Pavon (+15000) picked up the trophy at Torrey Pines.

Circle back tomorrow as I post more details in Horses for Courses/Betting Stat Pack.

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