Benny & the Bets: After low-scoring shootouts, Farmers Insurance Open one for grinders

Last week it was all about birdies. This week it’s all about avoiding bogeys.

Outside of needing to rack up some par-breakers on your one lone round at Torrey Pines North Course, the Farmers Insurance Open becomes a contrast to last week’s shootout at The American Express.

Those with designs on the trophy need a survival mentality on the South Course, a U.S. Open venue with plenty of teeth thanks to its length, healthy rough, small green targets and bumpy Poa annua putting surfaces among other things.

Given the heavy rain in the area on Monday and the Wednesday start, that luscious rough could be even more penal … but the greens a little more receptive. This brings Total Driving well and truly into play. The last five years all players in the top five on the leaderboard averaged being 22nd in Total Driving. which is a mix of both distance and accuracy.

It might sound obvious, but the last 10 winners at the Farmers Insurance Open have all been inside the top 10 of Bogey Avoidance for the week and inside the top four of Birdie-to-Bogey Ratio.

You cannot afford too many mistakes – but if you do make them, you’d better bounce back somewhere.

The winners over the last five seasons have all found a way to survive the toughest five holes on Torrey Pines South – which, for those who make the cut, is played three times.

While the majority of the field has struggled on the tough holes, the last five winners played their toughest five holes in 1-over or better. Luke List was a beast on the hard holes in 2022, playing them 4-under for the week.

“I was having a chat to Tony Finau about it at The American Express last week and was saying next week is just a true test where everything needs to be on,” two-time Farmers Insurance Open winner Jason Day said on his way to Torrey Pines to chase a third title.

“You can quote all the key stats you like to me," continued Day, "But you just need to be a little better than average at all of them and the one missing piece from all the stat sheets is your actual attitude when playing a U.S. Open style golf course for three days. That’s the real key.”

Day might be on to something when it comes to his personal efforts at the Farmers. Along with winning in 2015 and 2018, he has five more top-10s, including a T7-T3 run the last two years.

But in those two wins, Day did not land inside the top 10 of any of the key Strokes Gained metrics. Instead, he was steady across the board.

This is not true of the other recent winners. The other six over the last seven years all finished inside the top 10 of at least two of the five Strokes Gained categories.

“Again, it’s a true test of golf and while the average winning score has crept up a little the last few years, if you are getting to 10-under, you’re usually up to your eyeballs in it,” Day said.

“On weeks like that the mentality has to change. Last week 29-under won but this week we come to Torrey Pines where the air is heavier, the ball doesn’t go as far, the course conditions of heavy rough and long golf course, it plays U.S. Open-style and it becomes survival. You need that mindset.”

Day pointed to the fact he opened both his wins with 1-over 73s on the South Course before clawing back. He said he’s seen countless players start slowly and be in a negative frame of mind, and those players are the ones he can discount.

“The weekend on the South can be the biggest slog-fest of all time. If you shoot anything in the 60s on the weekend you move up dramatically. It’s about keeping yourself in the race,” he adds.

“You have to understand for the most part to have success around there, being average statistically is a good thing. You can be first in putting but if you are dead last in Greens in Regulation it won’t help you. You need to hit enough fairways, hit enough greens, hole enough putts. You don’t need a lights-out score. You need patience.”

For Day, the focus can fall on the tough holes. He knows for instance if he can get through the par-3 11th and par-4 12th on the South unscathed, you “are almost lapping the field.”

OUTRIGHTS

Given the above, it won’t surprise you one bit to see me back Jason Day (+2500) as my first outright option. His history at the course is sublime and he’s had his usual warm-up out in the desert before hitting the ground running here. Last season Day was 15th on TOUR in Total Driving, 16th in Bogey Avoidance, 20th on TOUR in Scrambling, 10th on TOUR in 3-Putt Avoidance… I could go on. This week and next at Pebble Beach are the Australian’s bread and butter… or should I say Vegemite.

Next up, I find it hard to leave out Tony Finau (+2800) as an option again. He was an option for me last week but failed to really fire enough birdies. This week he doesn’t need that many. With eight top-24 finishes in his last nine Farmers starts, he becomes another horse for this course. Finau was 15th last season in SG: Total, showing an ability to play well across the board.

PLACE MARKETS

Usually, you need experience around Torrey Pines to win, but youngster Ludvig Åberg has the stat profile to buck that trend. Consider the big hitter an option for your Top 10 (+200) selections.

I also think you should keep an eye on Sahith Theegala (+320 Top 10) who has been T25 and T4 in his two starts at Torrey Pines. The California kid knows his way around this sort of track and has the power to pounce. It all comes down to eliminating the big mistake.

Former champion Luke List represents a little value in the top-20 market at +250 given he’s finished top 40 the last five years, including a win and T10 while J.J. Spaun is a +125 option for a top 40. Spaun was seventh last season in Bogey Avoidance and has been top 40 two of the last four years.

LONGSHOTS

Given all three winners thus far on TOUR have been triple digits, we need to find another option to keep the trend rolling. What about Joseph Bramlett (+30000) who is 4-for-4 in making cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open with two top-20s? He was 15th in Driving Distance last season, 27th in GIR and 23rd in Bounce Back birdies. Other longshots at less crazy odds include List at +7500 or even European young gun Nicolai Hojgaard at +5000.

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