Golfbet recap: Amateur Nick Dunlap extends longshot streak at The American Express

Amateur Nick Dunlap made history Sunday at The American Express, and in so doing, he extended a streak of longshot winners to open the 2024 PGA TOUR Season.

Playing on a sponsor invite while still an undergrad at the University of Alabama, Dunlap was well down the board to start the week in La Quinta, listed at +40000 pre-tournament at BetMGM Sportsbook.

“We did not take any pre-tournament wagers on Dunlap,” said Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at the Borgata in New Jersey. “We have a few (tickets) between rounds, but nothing substantial.”

By the time he reached the final round, Dunlap held a three-shot lead and a tee time in the final group alongside seasoned veterans Justin Thomas and Sam Burns. The reigning U.S. Amateur champion, who shot a 12-under 60 in the third round, teed off Sunday at +140 odds to become the first amateur to win on TOUR since 1991.

Winning on TOUR isn’t easy, nor was Dunlap’s final round. He endured a three-shot swing after finding the water on No. 7, after which he and Burns were tied for the lead at 26-under. At that point, Burns became a +130 betting favorite while Dunlap drifted to +275.

Dunlap bounced back with a birdie on No. 8, and the two were tied heading to the par-3 17th where the tournament flipped when Burns found the water. After teeing off at +115, Dunlap left with a two-shot lead and as a -1200 favorite after safely finding the green and making par. A scrambling par on No. 18 gave him a one-shot win over Christiaan Bezuidenhout and reason to celebrate a watershed win.

Nick Dunlap odds to win The American Express (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

• Pre-tournament: +40000
• After Round 1 (T5, trailed by 2): +8000
• After Round 2 (T3, trailed by 2): +2000
• After Round 3 (Led by 3): +140

The victory means that Dunlap has a two-year exemption on TOUR should he choose to turn professional. Already exempt into three majors this year by virtue of his U.S. Amateur victory, Dunlap would gain entry into all of the remaining Signature events this year should he turn pro.

Pre-tournament outright picks from Golfbet experts

• Ben Everill: Xander Schauffele (+1100) T3
• Will Gray: Chris Kirk (+4000) T47
• Chris Breece: Tom Kim (+2500) MC
• Matt DelVecchio: Sungjae Im (+2000) T25
• Rob Bolton: Tom Kim (+2500) MC
• Mike Glasscott: Patrick Cantlay (+1000) T52

It remains to be seen if and when Dunlap will turn professional. Whatever the case, he will have numerous opportunities in front of him now and in the not-so-distant future.

Nearly as stunning as Dunlap’s victory is the run the sportsbooks have been on through the first three weeks of the 2024 PGA TOUR season. With wins by Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, and now Dunlap, that is three straight triple-digit odds winners. Pre-tournament, Kirk was +15000 to win The Sentry, Murray was +35000 before his playoff win at the Sony Open, and Dunlap topped them both by teeing off as a +40000 longshot this week.

Wow. Maybe next week at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open, we begin our handicap for the Farmers Insurance Open from the bottom of the odds board rather than the top.

Rob Bolton Sleeper Picks and Golfbet Insider results

• Cam Davis to win (+6600) MC
• Taylor Montgomery Top 5 (+750) 61st
• Patton Kizzire Top 10 (+900) MC
• Matti Schmid Top 20 (+450) MC
• Joe Highsmith Top 40 (+350) T34
• Tom Whitney Top 40 (+500) MC
• Jason Day Top 10 (+320) T34
• Rickie Fowler, Stephan Jaeger, Andrew Putnam to Make the Cut (+240)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 40 (+138) 2nd
• Harrison Endycott Top 40 (+250) T39
• Tony Finau Top 20 (+150) T25
• Wilson Furr Top 40 (+450) WD
• Tom Hoge Top 40 (+125) T17
• Nicholas Lindheim Top 40 (+130) MC
• Roger Sloan Top 40 (+130) MC
• Erik van Rooyen Top 40 (+125) T25
• Jhonattan Vegas Top South American (+275) MC
• Daniel Berger Top 40 (+110) T39

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